欧洲需要创造性思维

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欧洲需要创造性思维

天之聪教育 2013-04-25 天之聪教育 283次

欧洲需要创造性思维

Leader_Europe needs more creative thinking

Not for the first time during the crisis, the eurozone is looking short of ideas to stimulate growth. Last week, the European Central Bank declined to relax monetary policy, in contrast to the forceful example set by the Bank of Japan. Yet the recovery will not come of its own accord. Without creative thinking, the currency bloc risks drifting into prolonged stagnation.

欧元区缺乏刺激增长的办法，在危机中已不是第一次。上周，欧洲央行(ECB)拒绝放宽货币政策，与日本央行(BoJ)的有力行动形成鲜明对比。但复苏不会自己降临。如果缺乏创造性思维，欧元区将有可能陷入长期停滞。

There is also a growing sense that policy makers are being held hostage by the German elections, scheduled for next September. The optimists are prone to think that a newly minted government in Berlin is bound to show greater flexibility towards its eurozone partners. This almost certaintly underestimates the forces of continuity in German economic policy. Anyway, Europe cannot afford to wait six more months for action.

人们愈发感觉到，政策制定者正被将于今年9月举行的德国大选“绑架”。乐观者倾向认为，新一届德国政府肯定将对欧元区伙伴国表现出更大的弹性。这种看法几乎完全低估了德国经济政策持续性的因素。无论如何，欧洲等不起六个月，采取行动已是刻不容缓。

The recovery, which policy makers were predicting for the second half of this year, now looks fanciful. The latest data on industrial production, which will be out this Friday, are expected to make for yet more gloomy reading. Unemployment in the periphery is soaring. Even the German economy, which some thought would rebound strongly after shrinking late last year, has run out of steam.

政策制定者原本预测今年下半年将出现复苏，但现在复苏似乎成为幻想。即将于本周五公布的最新工业生产数据预计将更为悲观。外围国家的失业率高涨。一些人认为，在去年年底的收缩之后，德国经济将实现强势反弹，但它也已经失去动力。

There is a widespread belief, particularly in the rich countries of the European core, that growth will come from structural reforms, such as liberalised labour laws and freed up closed-shop professions. But, while necessary, these measures will necessarily take time to produce the desired effects. In countries such as Italy, reform fatigue is kicking in as a result of the widening economic malaise.

普遍的看法是（尤其是在富裕的欧洲核心国家），增长将源于结构性改革，如放宽劳动法、开放只雇佣工会会员的封闭性职业。但这些措施尽管必要，却需要花费很长时间才能实现理想效果。在意大利等国，经济低迷加剧已经导致“改革疲劳”。

The European Commission is rightly shifting its stance on fiscal policy, giving governments in difficulty more time to meet their targets. But this is tinkering at the margin. What is needed is for Germany and other countries with fiscal space to expand demand to provide breathing space to their struggling eurozone partners. For now, this is regrettably off the table.

欧盟委员会(European Commission)正确地改变了它的财政政策立场，让受困政府有更多时间实现目标。但这只是小修小补。欧洲需要德国等拥有“财政空间”的国家扩大需求，为苦苦挣扎的欧元区伙伴国提供喘息空间。但遗憾的是，这并不在议程中。

Which leaves monetary policy. During his tenure, Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, has shown himself capable of exercising decisive leadership, which has saved the eurozone from collapse. He has kept the banking system afloat by providing lenders with cheap loans. His commitment to buy sovereign debt of distressed countries in unlimited quantities has all but removed the convertibility risk and lowered interest rates on peripheral bonds. Yet, these measures have had only a limited impact on getting credit flowing to businesses, especially in the eurozone periphery.

只剩下货币政策。欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在任期内证明自己能够展现出果断的领导能力，使得欧元区免于崩溃。他向银行提供低息贷款，帮助银行体系渡过难关。他承诺无限量购买受困国家的主权债券，几乎消除了兑换性风险，并降低了外围国家债券的利率。不过，这些措施只能有限地促进信贷流向企业，尤其是欧元区外围国家的企业。

The problem is acute for small and medium enterprises, which form the backbone of the eurozone economy. In peripheral countries such as Spain and Italy, SMEs are the engine of job creation. Yet, they find it increasingly hard to get access to loans. When they do, the price they pay is significantly above what is asked from their German competitors.

对于构成欧元区经济支柱的中小企业而言，问题尤为严重。在西班牙和意大利等外围国家，中小企业是增加就业的动力，但它们越来越难获得贷款。即便是获得贷款，它们付出的代价也比它们的德国竞争对手高得多。

The ECB should start by lowering its policy rate. With headline inflation at 1.7 per cent and economic activity stagnant, a cut should be incontestable. But since the monetary transmission mechanism is not working, Mr Draghi should do more, seeking ways to target SMEs more directly.

欧洲央行首先应当降低政策利率。在整体通胀率仅为1.7%、经济活动停滞不前的状况下，降低利率应当是毫无争议的。但既然货币传导机制失灵，德拉吉应当采取更多行动，想方设法直接让中小企业受益。

One option is to adopt something similar to the UK’s Funding for Lending Scheme, offering cheap loans to banks which should be used to finance commercial and mortgage lending at reduced rates. There is a risk, however, that lenders use the cash to fund loans that would have happened anyway. In Britain, the initiative has so far failed to get credit to businesses, while proving useful for a still overvalued housing market.

一种选择是实施类似英国“贷款融资计划”(Funding for Lending)的方案，向银行提供低息贷款，由银行专门用于发放低息商业和抵押贷款。但一项风险是，银行可能会将这笔钱投入到本来就打算发放的贷款中。在英国，该计划迄今未能帮助企业获得信贷，却令估值仍然偏高的房产市场受益。

Another option for the ECB is to continue to relax its collateral eligibility rules on loans to SMEs. But if the ultimate credit risk remains with the banks, this is unlikely to spur lending significantly. A more effective step would be for the central bank to purchase securitised SME loans directly. The ECB would create liquidity in the market and favour the entry of more private players. True, this policy would transfer the credit risk of the loans on to the ECB balance sheet, a step the governing council appears to date reluctant to take. European governments could share some of the potential liabilities, for example via a more flexible use of the European Stability Mechanism.

欧洲央行的另一种选择是继续放宽中小企业贷款的抵押品资质限制。但如果银行仍然承受最终信用风险，那么此举也难以大幅促进放贷。更有效的做法是欧洲央行直接购买证券化的中小企业贷款。这将在市场上创造出流动性，吸引更多私营企业进入市场。的确，该政策会将贷款的信用风险转嫁到欧洲央行的资产负债表，因此它迄今似乎没有得到欧洲央行管理委员会的青睐。欧洲各国政府可以分担一部分潜在责任，例如它们可以更加灵活地使用欧洲稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism)。

As policy makers across the world act ever more forcefully to help their economies, Europe cannot remain fixated on an orthodoxy which is not working. Nor can it wait for a new government in Berlin. In the name of jobs and growth, Europe should take a brave leap forward.

随着全球各地的政策制定者采取比以往更加有力的措施提振本国经济，欧洲不能拘泥于缺乏效果的正统方法。它也不能坐等德国选出新政府。为了就业和增长，欧洲应当迈出勇敢的一大步。