拉加德警告谨防新危机

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拉加德警告谨防新危机

天之聪教育 2013-05-03 天之聪教育 239次

拉加德警告谨防新危机

Lagarde warns of new crisis

The uneven pace of growth in a “three-speed” global economy is creating new financial imbalances that could sow the seeds of a future crisis, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde has warned.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告称，全球经济增长速度不均衡，可分成“三种速度”，正在形成新的金融失衡，可能为未来的危机播下种子。

Ms Lagarde’s remarks yesterday highlighted the dominant trend in the global economy in which emerging economies expand rapidly even as advanced countries use ever more aggressive monetary policy to kick-start growth.

拉加德昨日的言论凸显出全球经济的主导趋势：在发达经济体采取越来越激进的货币政策刺激经济增长之际，新兴经济体的经济迅速扩张。

The IMF chief warned the global economy faced a series of “old” and “new” risks including a build-up of debt and foreign currency exposure in emerging markets as they take advantage of low interest rates to borrow abroad, as well as unsustainable public finances in the US and Japan.

拉加德警告称，全球经济面对一系列“新、旧”风险，包括债务累积、新兴市场增加外汇敞口（他们利用海外低利率进行借贷），以及美国和日本公共财政不可持续等。

Speaking in New York ahead of next week’s spring IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, Ms Lagarde said the risks to the global economy appeared under control. “But we must be alert to any warning signs,” she said. “Over the past five years foreign currency borrowing by firms in emerging markets has risen by about 50 per cent. Over the past year, bank credit has increased by 13 per cent in Latin America and 11 per cent in Asia.”

在国际货币基金组织与世界银行(World Bank)春季会议下周在华盛顿召开之前，拉加德在纽约发言表示，全球经济的风险看上去已经控制住了。她表示：“但我们必须注意任何警告信号。过去5年间，新兴市场企业外汇借贷已经增长了大约50%。过去1年来，拉美的银行信贷增加了13%，亚洲增加了11%。”

Such a scenario sets up the risk of a classic emerging-market crisis in which capital flows go into sudden reverse, the currencies of developing countries fall and they are then unable to repay their foreign debts.

这种情景为经典的新兴市场危机埋下了风险：资本流动突然逆转，发展中国家的货币贬值，无力偿还外债。

Ms Lagarde said the US fell into a second group of economies, also including Sweden and Switzerland, that are on the mend. But she warned that the US was cutting its deficit too fast in the short term, harming growth, while tackling its long-run deficit too slowly.

拉加德表示，美国与瑞典和瑞士等属于第二类经济体，它们的状况正在好转。但她警告称，美国在短期内削减赤字的速度过快，有损增长，而处理其长期赤字的动作过于迟缓。

Ms Lagarde said the third, still struggling, group of economies includes the eurozone and Japan. She said the priority for Europe is “to clean up the banking system by recapitalising, restructuring, or – where necessary – shutting down banks”.

拉加德表示，第三类经济体仍然举步维艰，这组经济体包括欧元区和日本。她表示，欧洲的重点是“通过资本重组、调整结构或者在必要时关闭银行来清理银行体系”。

She said the priority for Japan is to break free of deflation, and strikingly, given moves already taken by the Bank of Japan last week, called for greater reliance on monetary policy to kick-start growth. But she warned that its public finances, with debt nearing 245 per cent of gross domestic product, were unsustainable.

拉加德指出，日本的重点是摆脱通缩，鉴于日本央行(BoJ)上周已经采取的措施，她极力呼吁日本更加仰仗货币政策来刺激增长。但她警告称，日本公共部门债务几乎是国内生产总值(GDP)的245%，这样的公共财政是不可持续的。