以邻为壑的安倍经济学
Abenomics will only damage Japan’s neighbours
Abenomics, the name given to Japan’s experiment with monetary and fiscal stimulus, is designed to end chronic deflation, according to Shinzo Abe, the country’s prime minister. But there is yet little evidence of inflation. The world has merely seen a sharp devaluation of the yen. This devaluation is both unfair on other countries and unsustainable.
据日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)所言，日本尝试推行货币与财政刺激政策（即外界所称的“安倍经济学”(Abenomics)），是为了结束本国的长期通缩。但迄今为止，世界还没有看到日本显露出什么通胀的迹象。世界只看到日元在大幅贬值。这种贬值既对其他国家不公平，同时也是不可持续的。
Since December the yen has lost about 25 per cent of its value against the US dollar and even more against the Chinese renminbi and the South Korean won. As a result Japan’s exports have accelerated and were responsible for almost half of its annualised 3.5 per cent growth in gross domestic product in the last quarter. The faster rate of exports has driven up expected earnings of large companies and, accordingly, the index of the Japanese stock market by 50 per cent. But core consumer prices remain lower than they did a year ago. Rather than raise expectations of inflation, Abenomics has simply generated expectations of further devaluation.
去年12月以来，日元相对美元累计贬值约25%，相对人民币和韩元则贬值得更多。其结果是，日本的出口已经加速；上季度日本国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长3.5%，其中将近一半是由出口增长贡献的。出口加速增长提振了日本大企业的预期盈利，日本的股指也相应上涨了50%。但核心消费价格仍低于去年同期的水平。“安倍经济学”并没有推高通胀预期，相反，它只是催生了对日元将进一步贬值的预期。
This type of recovery is unfair since it comes at the expense of Japan’s trading partners. In South Korea, Hyun Oh-seok, finance minister, last month said the won’s appreciation against the yen is a larger issue than whether North Korea launches a nuclear missile.
这种复苏是不公平的，因为它是靠牺牲日本的贸易伙伴来实现的。韩国财长玄旿锡(Hyun Oh-seok)上月表示，与朝鲜是否会发射核导弹相比，韩元相对日元升值是一个更为严峻的问题。
China has become the de facto shock absorber for Abenomics. For the past three years China’s trade surplus has been steadily decreasing as a share of its GDP, from more than 5 per cent to about 2 per cent. In terms of absolute value, the surplus has come down from about $300bn to nearer $200bn. Meanwhile, the nominal exchange rate of the renminbi against the dollar has appreciated by about 20 per cent since July 2010. Chinese inflation has been about 2 per cent higher than the US over the period, so the real exchange rate is appreciating faster.
中国已成为“安倍经济学”事实上的减震器。过去三年里，中国贸易顺差占GDP的比重一直在稳步下降，从逾5%降到约2%。从绝对数值来看，中国贸易顺差已从约3000亿美元降到接近2000亿美元。另一方面，自2010年7月以来，人民币兑美元名义汇率累计上涨了约20%。在此期间，中国的通胀率比美国高出约两个百分点，因此实际汇率上涨得更快。
Chinese exporters do not need a devaluation of the yen. Many Chinese products are in strong competition with Japanese equivalents – think of cameras and televisions. The yen devaluation is hurting producers of these goods. This is at a time when Japanese exports to China are rising because of relative quiet in the dispute over islands in the East China Sea.
日元贬值是中国出口商不愿看到的。很多中国产品正在与日本同类产品展开激烈竞争，比如相机和电视。日元贬值正在损害生产这些产品的中国厂商的利益。与此同时，日本对华出口正因东中国海岛争相对平静而呈上升之势。
A Japanese recovery based on a devaluation cannot last. The most important reason for this is geopolitics. Against the backdrop of quantitative easing by several central banks including Japan’s, China, Taiwan and South Korea are all facing the problem of currency appreciation. The falling yen is salt rubbed into their wounds. Nationalistic sentiments against Mr Abe are high. Strong economic policy reactions from Japan’s neighbours are almost inevitable.
日本以日元贬值为基础的复苏是不可持续的。最重要的原因是地缘政治。在包括日本央行在内的多家央行推行量化宽松的背景下，中国大陆、台湾和韩国都面临本币升值的问题。日元贬值对它们来说是在伤口上撒盐。反安倍的民族主义情绪日益高涨。日本的邻国在经济政策上作出强烈反应几乎是不可避免的。
If the yen devaluation continues, China and South Korea may well have to interfere in the foreign exchange markets to stop the appreciation of their currencies. Trade disputes may emerge against certain Japanese exports. Finally, Japanese investments will be placed under increasing scrutiny.
如果日元继续贬值，中国和韩国可能不得不对外汇市场实施干预，阻止本币升值。或许会出现对某些日本出口商不利的贸易争端。最后，日方的投资也会受到越来越严格的审查。
Japan needs to return to the fundamental values of economics. Specifically, it should try to increase asset values through enhancing domestic economic activities. The most important element is higher capital expenditure by companies, which is missing despite the current boom in exports. This is an indication that Japan’s corporate executives do not believe that its currency appreciation is sustainable.
日本需要回归经济学的基本价值观。特别是应该试着通过加强国内经济活动来提升资产价值。最重要的一点是企业增加资本支出——尽管日本出口在快速增长，我们却没有看到这一点。这说明，日本企业高管认为，日元贬值是不可持续的。
Most importantly, the Japanese government needs to implement its long overdue liberalisation of various regulations to allow businesses to invest freely. It needs to liberalise the labour market to allow companies to hire more workers; to enhance competition; and to encourage investment by small businesses via increased access to credit. Without this hard work, real economic activities cannot recover quickly and deflation will continue – despite the huge amount of money printed. This is a lesson the world has learnt through various financial crises and the ensuing hard-earned recovery. Japan must learn it too.
最重要的是，日本政府需要落实早就该落实的自由化，放松各种监管，让企业能够自由投资。它需要放开劳动力市场、允许企业雇佣更多员工，还需要强化竞争，并通过降低信贷门槛鼓励小企业投资。不付出这种努力，实体经济活动就无法快速复苏，通缩也会持续下去——印多少钱都不管用。这是世界从各种金融危机及随后来之不易的复苏中汲取的一个教训。日本也必须汲取这个教训。
天之聪教育
2013-05-23
天之聪教育
313次
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