The Road to Sustainable Global Growth—the Policy Agenda

通向全球可持续增长之路——政策议程

By Christine Lagarde

Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

School of Advanced International Studies

Washington, DC, April 2, 2014

克里斯蒂娜•拉加德

国际货币基金组织总裁

2014 年 4 月 2 日，华盛顿，高级国际研究学院

Good morning. I would like to thank Provost Lieberman for his warm introduction. I am also appreciative of Dean Vali Nasr’skind invitation to join you today. And I want to salute my friend and former IMF colleague, John Lipsky, who will be moderating today’s session.

早上好。感谢普洛沃斯特•利伯曼热情洋溢的介绍，还要感谢瓦利•纳斯尔主任盛情邀请我参加今天的活动。向我的朋友、以前在基金组织的同事约翰•利普斯基表示敬意，他将主持今天这场讨论。

I am delighted to be at SAIS, one of the world’s top learning institutions, with a faculty and student body renowned not only for their intellectual ability but also for their international commitment—which includes campuses on three continents. I understand that the school’s theme for this year is “Emerging Markets.” This seems most appropriate, since emerging market economies now account for the bulk of global growth.

很高兴能来到世界一流学府——高级国际研究学院，这里的教师和学生不仅以其知识水平著称，其承担的国际责任大家也都有耳闻，学院在三个大洲均设有校区。我知道，学院今年的主题是“新兴市场”，该主题看似非常恰当，因为新兴市场经济体目前是全球增长的主力军。

Next week, Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of our 188 member countries— emerging markets, advanced economies and low-income countries—will gather in Washington for our Spring Meetings. Today, with this global audience at SAIS, let me give you a preview of our global policy agenda.

下周，我们 188 个成员国的财政部长和央行行长将齐聚华盛顿，出席基金组织春季会议，他们来自新兴市场、先进经济体和低收入国家。今天，面对高级国际研究学院来自全球的观众，我想预先介绍一下我们的全球政策议程。

Strengthening International Cooperation is a Priority

加强国际合作是头等大事

I want to begin with what will be a priority issue. At a time when the world is still recovering from the Great Recession—and at a time when geopolitical tensions are rising—how can we strengthen the international cooperation that is key to addressing these challenges?

我想从首要问题谈起。在世界依然从“大衰退”中复苏的时刻，在地缘政治矛盾正在上升的时刻，国际合作是应对这些挑战的关键，我们怎样才能加强国际合作？

Certainly the global economy has stabilized since the onset of the financial crisis, but the recovery is too weak for comfort. Moreover, unless countries come together to take the right kind of policy measures, we could be facing years of slow and sub-par growth—well below the solid, sustainable growth that is needed to create enough jobs and improve living standards into the future.

毋庸置疑的是，自金融危机爆发以来，全球经济已企稳，但复苏过于薄弱，令人难以高枕无忧。此外，除非各国齐心协力采取正确的政策措施，否则我们会面临多年的缓慢且低于标准的增长，远低于创造充足的就业机会以及提高未来生活标准所需要的坚实、可持续的增长水平。

This is not inevitable. As Aristotle wisely said: “We become just by performing just actions, temperate by performing temperate actions, and brave by performing brave actions.”

这并不是不可避免。正如亚里士多德曾英明地说：“我们通过采取正义行动变得正义，通过温和行动变得心平气和，通过勇敢行动变得无所畏惧。”

Now is the time for brave action.

现在是采取勇敢行动的时候。

The major G20 countries, at their meeting in Australia in February, recognized that the right policy actions by countries—and the right cooperation across countries—could raise world GDP by over 2 percent over the next 5 years.

主要二十国集团国家在 2 月于澳大利亚召开的会议上承认，各国自己采取正确政策行动加上各国之间的恰当合作可在未来 5 年使全球 GDP 提高逾 2%。

This would place the global economy on a substantially different and better trajectory from today.

这将使全球经济步入一个与今天截然不同并且更好的轨迹。

At that same meeting in Sydney, the IMF was asked to monitor country-specific plans and tasked with assessing possible “spillover” effects—how one country’s policy actions might affect others. With our global membership, technical expertise, and cross-country experience, the IMF is well placed to help.

在悉尼召开的同一个会议上，与会者要求基金组织监测各国计划，并评估可能出现的“溢出”效应，即一国的政策行动如何影响他国。基金组织的成员遍布全球，拥有技术专长和跨国经验，有条件提供帮助。

We have been doing that for 70 years: after the Second World War, during the Asian and Latin American financial crises, and during the Great Recession. A more recent example is the assistance that we are proposing for Ukraine—and where IMF support will galvanize support from others.

我们在该方面一直努力了 70 年：第二次世界大战后，亚洲和拉丁美洲金融危机期间，以及“大衰退”期间。更近期的例子是，我们正提议为乌克兰提供援助，基金组织的支持将激励其他国家伸出援手。

It is international cooperation in action. It is the IMF in action.

这是正在行动中的国际合作，是正在行动中的基金组织。

Our role is generally well recognized. Consequently, almost our entire membership has approved a set of governance reforms aimed at strengthening our resources and better representing the changing dynamics amongst our shareholders.

我们的作用总体上得到了较好的承认，因此几乎所有成员国批准了一套治理改革措施，旨在强化我们的资源，并更好地反映股东之间的变化动态。

The exception to this support, unfortunately, is the United States—our leading shareholder and a founding member. Just last week, legislation that would have brought these reforms into effect did not make it through the Congress. This is disappointing, but it is not the end of the story. We shall carry on.

遗憾的是，美国成为例外。作为我们的主要股东和创始成员，美国未给予支持。就在上周，本可能使这些改革措施生效的立法在国会未得到通过。这令人失望，但故事还未结束，我们会继续努力。

The U.S. Administration has reiterated its commitment to see the reforms approved as soon as possible. The rest of our membership remains committed. And I am personally committed—because these reforms are good for the IMF, good for the U.S. economy, and good for the world.

美国政府重申其承诺，表示要看到改革尽快得到批准。其他成员国依然致力于这些改革，我本人也是，因为这些改革有利于基金组织、有利于美国经济并且有利于世界。

So, international cooperation will be high on the agenda next week. What else?

因此，国际合作将是下周议程上的首要内容。其他还有哪些？

Three broad topics:

三个广泛的话题：

(i) The state of the global economy: how is the growth engine running?

(i) 全球经济状况：增长引擎运转如何？

(ii) Short-term obstacles on the road ahead: how can they be navigated?

(ii) 前方道路上的短期障碍：如何小心翼翼地绕过障碍？

(iii)The medium-term horizon: how do we shift gears and get the global economy up to cruising speed—meaning stronger, more sustainable growth?

(iii) 中期前景：如何换挡，并让全球经济达到巡航速度，即更强、更可持续的增长？

Let me discuss each of these.

让我来一一探讨。

1. State of the Global Economy

1. 全球经济状况

First, a quick check of the global economy. We will be releasing our new forecasts next week, so I will just touch on broad trends.

首先，快速看下全球经济。下周，我们将发布新预测，因此我只介绍总体趋势。

The global economy is turning the corner of the Great Recession, although overall growth remains too slow and weak. In 2013, global growth was about 3 percent; we project modest improvements in 2014 and 2015, although still remaining below past trends.

虽然总体增长依旧过于缓慢且薄弱，全球经济正在拐“大衰退”这个角。2013 年，全球约增长3%，我们预测，虽然全球增长仍将低于过去的趋势水平，但 2014 年和 2015年会出现适度改善。

Economic activity in the advanced economies is improving, albeit at varying speeds. This is good news, because for the past 5 years the emerging market and developing economies have been shouldering the burden of recovery—accounting for 75 percent of the increase in global growth since 2009. The recovery is finally becoming a bit more balanced, in an overall economic landscape that has changed significantly.

先进经济体的经济活动正在改善，但速度不一。这是好消息，因为过去5年，新兴市场和发展中经济体一直承担着复苏重担，自2009年以来，占全球增长增幅的75%。在发生巨变的整个经济格局中，复苏最终变得稍微更加平衡。

In the advanced economies, growth is strongest in the United States, supported by robust private demand and an easing of the short-term fiscal brake. Even so, it will be critical to continue to carefully manage the gradual withdrawal of monetary support by the Fed, and to put in place a durable medium-term fiscal plan.

在先进经济体中，受强劲的私人需求和短期财政抑制作用缓解的支持，美国的增长最为强劲。即便如此，美联储继续谨慎管理货币支持的逐步退出，以及建立持久的中期财政计划，都将是关键。

In the Euro Area, a modest recovery is taking hold—stronger in the core but weaker in the South. Encouraging steps have been taken recently to establish a banking union—which the IMF has been urging for some time. Implementing a common fiscal backstop remains key, as is the upcoming asset quality review of banks.

在欧元区，温和复苏正在稳固，核心国复苏较强，但南部较弱。近期为建立银行业联盟而采取了令人鼓舞的措施。一段时间以来，基金组织一直敦促此举。实施共同的财政支持措施仍是关键，即将进行的银行资产质量审查也一样。

In Japan, the world's third largest economy, activity is seeing a boost from the monetary "arrow" of Abenomics. For growth to be sustained, the remaining two policy "arrows"—structural reforms and a concrete medium-term fiscal plan—also need to be comprehensively fired.

在世界第三大经济体日本，安倍经济学的货币之“箭”促进了经济活动。为实现可持续增长，也需要全面发射剩下的两支政策之“箭”，即结构性改革和具体的中期财政计划。

Activity in emerging market economies, which has been slowing, picked up slightly in the latter part of 2013—driven by stronger demand from advanced economies. Although tighter external financial conditions will be a drag on domestic demand, emerging Asia in particular will continue to be a bright spot, posting the world's highest growth rate of more than 6½ percent this year.China also will continue to be a key driver, albeit at a slower, more sustainable pace.

受先进经济体的强劲需求推动，一直在放缓的新兴市场经济体的活动在 2013 年下半年有所改善。虽然紧张的外部金融条件将拖累国内需求，但尤其是新兴亚洲将继续成为亮点，今年将增长 6.5%以上，为世界最快增速。中国也将继续充当关键的增长引擎，但增速放缓并更可持续。

Many low-income countries too have been a bright spot. After Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa has been the most dynamic region in the world during the crisis, growing at around 5 percent per year on average. This should continue, although in several countries rapid debt accumulation and erosion of fiscal space will need to be watched.

许多低收入国家也是亮点。排在亚洲之后的撒哈拉以南非洲在危机期间是世界最具活力的地区，年均增长 5%左右。这种增长应该会继续，但需关注多个国家债务迅速累积和财政空间受到侵蚀的问题。

Turning to the Arab Countries in Transition, their prospects are held back by the difficult socio-political context. Those countries striving to advance much-needed reforms deserve firm support from the international community.

在转型中的阿拉伯国家，困难的社会政治背景拖累了这些国家的前景。努力推进急需改革的国家应得到国际社会的鼎力支持。

So this is a snapshot of the global economy. I would summarize it this way:

所以，以上便是全球经济一瞥，我想这样总结：

A modest and fragile recovery is underway—and needs to change gears toward more rapid and sustainable growth.

温和且脆弱的复苏正在进行，需切换档位，迈向更快、更可持续的增长。

2. Removing Obstacles to Short-run Growth

2.清除短期增长面临的障碍

This takes us to my next topic: what short-term obstacles are emerging on the road to get there? I see three.

这将我们带到了我要探讨的下一个话题：前往目的地的道路上出现了哪些短期障碍？我认为有三个。

The first obstacle is in the advanced economies. There is the emerging risk of what I call "low-flation," particularly in the Euro Area. A potentially prolonged period of low inflation can suppress demand and output—and suppress growth and jobs. More monetary easing, including through unconventional measures, is needed in the Euro Area to raise the prospects of achieving the ECB's price stability objective. The Bank of Japan also should persist with its quantitative easing policy.

第一个障碍在先进经济体。浮现了被我叫做“低通胀”的风险，尤其是在欧元区。潜在持续低通胀会压抑需求和产出，以及增长和就业。欧元区需加大货币宽松力度，包括采取非常规措施，从而改善实现欧洲中央银行物价稳定目标的前景。日本银行也应持续实施量化宽松政策。

The second obstacle is in the emerging market economies.Corporate leverage has been rising, and there is a risk of heightened market volatility associated with the tapering of quantitative easing in the U.S. This is combined with a generally less benign external financial climate. What we saw from the recent bouts of market volatility is that countries with weaker fundamentals—larger domestic and external imbalances—are likely to be more affected. By the same token, strong policy responses by those economies are likely to be the best safeguard against turbulence.

第二个障碍在新兴市场经济体。企业杠杆一直在上升，存在与美国逐步退出量化宽松相关的市场波动加剧的风险，加上总体而言，外部金融环境不利。我们从近几轮的市场波动看到，基本面更加薄弱的国家，即国内外失衡较严重的国家，很可能会受到更大程度的影响。同样，这些经济体采取强有力的政策应对措施很可能是防止动荡的最好防护方法。

Navigating the choppy waters of financial normalization will require a collaborative approach among all countries. That means building a shared understanding of the risks and the policy responses. It means cooperation among central banks and financial regulators to contain adverse policy “spillovers” and subsequent feedback to source countries—“spillbacks.” It also means, and as I have emphasized repeatedly, continued, clear communication among all central banks.

驶过金融正常化这片波涛汹涌的水域要求所有国家采取合作的方法。那意味着在风险和应对措施方面能形成共同认识，意味着央行和金融监管当局之间通过合作控制政策的负面“溢出”以及随后对溢出来源国的反馈，即“溢回”，还意味着，正如我反复强调的那样，所有央行之间要持续、清晰地沟通。

The third obstacle is the rise of geopolitical tensions, which could cloud the global economic outlook. The situation in Ukraine is one which, if not well managed, could have broader spillover implications. There are also other cases of geopolitical tension. Resolving them requires not only good policies, but good politics. Both are essential to enable the global economy to move into a higher gear.

第三个障碍是地缘政治冲突的抬头，这会给全球经济前景蒙上阴影。乌克兰局势是一个例子，如控制不好，会产生广泛的溢出影响。此外，还有其他一些地缘政治冲突的例子。解决冲突不仅要求有好的政策，还要有好的政治。二者均是推动全球经济进入高档运行的关键。

3. Reaching Cruising Speed for Medium-term Growth

3. 使中期增长达到巡航速度

This brings me to my third and final topic—how do we reach cruising speed over the medium-term? How do we achieve higher quality, more sustainable growth that is more broadly shared?

这是我要探讨的第三个，也是最后一个话题，即如何在中期达到巡航速度？如何实现被更广泛分享的更高质量、更可持续的增长？

We know that the costs of continued sluggish growth are high: modest income gains and meager reductions in unemployment and inequality. Indeed, the risk is that without sufficient policy ambition, the world could fall into a medium-term low growth trap. How can we avoid this?

我们知道，增长持续低迷的代价高昂：收入增长不快，且失业和不平等的改善不足。事实上，这里的风险是，没有充分的政策雄心，世界可能跌入中期低增长陷阱。我们应如何加以避免？

We first need to fix problems that have been with us for some time during the crisis:

首先，需解决危机期间存在了一段时间的问题：

• Unemployment—far too many people are still out of work, especially young people;

• 失业——仍有太多的人失业，特别是青年人；

• High levels of debt—meeting the challenge of fiscal consolidation while safeguarding growth; and

• 债务水平高——在保障增长的同时，应对财政整顿的挑战；以及

• Financial uncertainty—completing the reforms necessary to place the global financial system on a sounder footing.

• 金融不确定性——完成必要的改革，使全球金融体系的根基更加稳健。

While some progress has been made on each of these, none has yet been overcome.

每个问题的解决都取得了一定进展，但没有一个问题得到解决。

The economic, fiscal, and monetary policies that I have already mentioned are a big part of the solution. But with space for supportive policies narrowing in many countries, the role of structural reforms as a policy lever will increase.

我已提到的经济、财政和货币政策是解决方法的主要组成部分。但随着许多国家的支持政策空间缩小，结构性改革作为政策杠杆的作用将上升。

What does that mean in practical terms? It means more and better-targeted investment, more labor market reforms, and more product market and services reforms.

实践中，这意味着什么？意味着增加更有针对性的投资，扩大劳动力市场改革，加强产品市场和服务改革。

First, public investment has taken a hit over the years in many countries; higher, well-prioritized investment would increase potential output and jobs. In Brazil, India, South Africa, and across the ASEAN countries, more public and private investment is essential to close infrastructure gaps. Investment to upgrade existing infrastructure networks is also needed in a number of the advanced economies—for instance, in Germany and the U.S.

首先，多年来，许多国家的公共投资遭受重创。扩大并按照轻重缓急进行投资将增加潜在产出和就业。在巴西、印度、南非和所有东南亚国家联盟成员国，增加公共和私人投资是消除基础设施缺口的关键。许多先进经济体也需投资升级现有基础设施网络，例如，德国和美国。

Second, inclusive labor market reforms can go a long way in boosting potential growth. In countries with aging populations, increasing participation of underrepresented groups can help to keep them dynamic. In Korea, for example, measures to increase the participation of women and older workers should appreciably boost potential growth and more than offset the impact of aging. Recent IMF research has pointed out that, in many countries, increasing women’s participation in the workforce can be a powerful impetus to growth.

其次，包容性劳动力市场改革能持续促进潜在增长。在人口老龄化的国家，代表性不足的群体劳动参与扩大有助于保持国家活力。例如，在韩国，提高妇女和老龄工人劳动参与的措施应该能明显促进潜在增长，并且远不止抵消老龄化产生的影响。近期，基金组织的研究指出，在许多国家，提高妇女在劳动力中的参与度会给增长带来巨大动力。

In countries with high levels of youth unemployment or informality, labor market reforms can be critical in avoiding a lost generation. In Mexico, for example, it is estimated that reforms to reduce hiring barriers in the formal sector could create nearly 400,000 new jobs annually.

在青年人失业水平或不正规程度高的国家，劳动力市场改革是避免出现迷失的一代的关键。例如，在墨西哥，据估计，减少正规行业雇佣障碍的改革每年可创造近40万份新工作。

Third, reforms to product markets and services can help break down vested interests, boost competition, and unleash huge growth and employment potential. This is the case not only in advanced economies such as Japan or Germany, but also in emerging market economies such as China.

第三，产品市场和服务改革有助于打垮既得利益，推动竞争，并释放巨大的增长和就业潜力。不仅先进经济体如此，例如，日本或德国，新兴市场经济体也是如此，例如，中国。

Why? Because the innovation and productivity that underpin the services sector are the drivers of a modern economy. Think technology, communications, or finance. These, in turn, depend on effective, accountable and rules-based institutions.

为什么呢？因为支撑服务业的创新和生产力是现代经济的推动因素。想一想技术、通信或金融。这些反过来又依赖有效、可问责并以规则为基础的机构。

That is why capacity building efforts are so important. That is also why capacity building is the largest service that the IMF provides today—in almost 90 percent of our 188 member countries, as diverse as Greece, Georgia and Guinea.

这是能力建设为何如此重要的原因，也是能力建设如今为何是基金组织提供的最大服务的原因，我们为 188 个成员国中几乎 90%的成员提供该服务，像希腊、格鲁吉亚和几内亚一样具有多元性。

In Myanmar, for example, which I visited late last year, we are making a major effort to strengthen key areas of macroeconomic management as the country strives for reform. And through the IMF, the international community is coming together to help the country open up to the world.

例如，在我去年底访问的缅甸，我们正在作出重要努力，从而在该国推进改革时，加强其宏观经济管理的关键领域。同时，通过基金组织，国际社会汇聚在一起，共同帮助缅甸向世界开放。

All of which brings us back to where I began—on the role of the IMF and the importance of cooperation.

所有这些让我们回到了我开始的话题，即基金组织的作用与合作的重要性。

Conclusion

结论

On that note, let me conclude.

说到这里，让我总结一下。

In many ways, the world is at a critical juncture: emerging from the greatest financial crisis in almost a hundred years. Recovery is taking hold but is too slow and it faces several obstacles along the road. Bold policy steps can overcome these obstacles and take the global economy to the next level of more rapid and sustainable growth.

从许多方面看，世界正处于关键时点：走出几乎百年来最严重的一次金融危机。复苏正在稳固，但太缓慢，并且在复苏道路上面临多个障碍。大胆的政策措施能克服这些障碍，并将全球经济推向下一个更快、更可持续增长的水平。

I have outlined a number of those steps today and they will be discussed further by our global membership next week. It is already clear that one policy step, above all, is key: a strengthening of international cooperation, a renewed commitment to multilateralism.

今天，我提纲挈领地列出了其中的许多措施。下周，我们来自全球的成员国将进一步讨论这些措施。已经明朗的是，有一项政策措施尤其关键，即加强国际合作，重新致力于多边主义。

In our interconnected 21st century, no country can go it alone. National prosperity and global prosperity are linked; they depend, more than ever before, on our working together. The IMF is indispensable for this global cooperation.

在我们彼此关联的 21 世纪，没有一个国家可以独善其身。国家的繁荣和全球繁荣联系在一起；与以往任何时候相比，这更加依赖我们的共同努力。基金组织在这种全球合作中不可或缺。

Victor Hugo said: “Perseverance is the secret of all triumphs.”

维克多•雨果曾说过：“毅力是一切胜利的秘诀。”

The global economy is turning the corner—we need to persevere and push on together to complete the journey.

全球经济正在转弯，我们需坚持不懈，一同继续前进，完成旅行。

Thank you.

谢谢。