天之聪口译 2019-09-19 天之聪口译 1875次
2019世界人工智能大会World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC）刚刚落幕，但双马（特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）和阿里巴巴董事局主席马云）精彩纷呈的激辩让人久久不能平复，尤其是两位对于教育问题的抱怨及解决方案。马云说，“现在很多人担心工作、失业，而我最担心的是我们的教育，担心我们的教育系统、担心我们教孩子的内容和我们教孩子的方式。马斯克则表示：未来教育应该围绕“如何提高对未来的预测力”展开。过去，人类在判断未来时犯了太多错误。
Let’s talk about education, I’m quite interested about education. Can we? What knowledge or skills will be useful to master the future? Do you have any advice for young professionals who want to pursue a career in AI?
Young professionals, I don’t think we will have professionals in AI in the future. People worry about jobs, but I worry about education. All the education systems, things we teach our kids, the way we teach our kids, are mainly designed for the industrial period. I’m sure the machine will be much clever than human beings in the future. How can human being do better? Human being should be smarter, human being should be wiser? How can we human beings to be wiser or smarter? I think we should change the way of education, change the things.
Because in the past, we focus a lot about, you know, remember things. Computer can remember better than you are. We want to calculate faster, computer can calculate much faster. We want to run faster, computer can run much faster than you are. So human beings should have confidence by be more creative, more constructive. So, how can we teach our kids to be more creative and constructive? I think this is the key of the education.
I want spending more time on training kids on arts, on painting, on singing, on dancing. You know on these creative things that make people live like humans. Don’t worry about machines. For sure, we should understand one thing that man can never make another man. Computer is a computer, computer is just a toy. Man cannot even make a mosquito. We should have confidence, computer only have chips, men have the heart. It’s the heart where the wisdom comes from. So I think in the next ten or twenty years, human beings of every country, every government should focus on reform the education system, making sure our kids be able to find jobs in the future, be able to live a life that only work three days a week, four hours a day, and that is very important. If we do not change the education system that we are in, we are all in going to be in trouble, that’s my view. Don’t worry about it, we will change it.
Yeh, I want to say try to learn as much as possible that allows you to predict the future or make the future. Saddest thing is the best way to predict future is to make it. Assess what you’re learning is enabling you to predict the future with less error. We always wrong to some degree, but can you reduce the error on your future predictions. I think that’s the way to look at education. Of course, with both creative create the future and predict the future, so that includes art and a lot of other things. With close loop on being less wrong about future, I’d say that’s the right way you think about education.
Down the road was neural link, you can just upload any subject instantly. So, we like the matrix. If you want to do whatever any given skill, we just upload instantly. On the way, education works now extremely low bandwidth. Lectures are the worst, really. Try to predict the future with less error, this is very hard, as you say our share is 99.99%, it’s not really good generally our predictable future. But I think the first thing is to try, you got try and then adjust based on error of your previous predictions.
I think just try is very good. We should always have the confidence to try in the future. I never worry about errors and mistakes. Errors and mistakes are the best assets of human lives. I think when people worry about the disasters that AI is gonna brining, I think it’s not the disasters, it’s the mistakes that human beings make. Trust human beings will be able to correct the mistake and improve themselves. That we will need education.
In China today, we have 18 hundred new babies born every year, which is not enough, we need have much more than that. I think the best resources of the human beings, or the best resources on the earth are not the coal, not oil, not electricity. It’s the human brains. How can we make the human brains more creative, constructive? How can we make sure that the machines are always the toys and tools of humans, rather than the control. So, I never in my life, especially last two years when people talk about AI say human beings will be controlled by machines, I never think about that, I think it’s impossible, because human beings are different, machines invented by human beings. According to the science, humans can never create another animal that is smarter than humans, especially here we have so many smart people. It’s impossible to make another smart people.
I very much disagree with that.
Ok, that’s good.
We can definitely make things smarter than ourselves, I mean they don’t used to be humans. Early civilizations are very primitive. We don’t have any technology really, we just run and run, you know trying not to get eaten, survive the winter. Now we have like heating, we grew food, these are all new stuff. So, things are obvious that we are smarter than the past. That will continue, we are not the last step of revolution. The most important thing, like you said, the most important mistake I say smart people making is assuming they are smart.
So, give me example, what the animals or things that human being made that is smarter than human beings?
Computers actually are already much smarter than people on so many dimensions, we just keep moving the goal posts. We used to think like, for example, being good at chess was an example of smart human. Kasparov was crushed by deep learning in 1997, that was a long time ago. 22 years, I mean right now your cellphone could crush the world champion chess literally. Go used to be sort of something that human beings are better than computers. Lee Sedol was beaten for 4:1 by Alpha Zero. Alpha Zero crushed AlphaGo 100:0. Now, it’s just pointless because it just keeps explaining itself, humans trying to play computer Go is like trying to fight Zues, it’s not gonna work, we are hopeless. This is just a small corner of intellectual pursuit that humans are better than computers, every year they get smaller and smaller. We far surpass it in every single way guaranteed. Or civilization win, those are two possibilities.
马斯克：计算机已经在很多方面比人更聪明了，我们的目标在变得更高。比如过去下棋是聪明人才会下的，现在你的手机就可以下棋打败世界冠军。围棋以前大家觉得人比电脑强，但是李世石被阿尔法go 4：1打败了，阿尔法zero 100：0打败了阿尔法go。人类和计算机下围棋就像和宙斯斗争一样是没有希望的，我们差太远了。人类智力会在越来越少的方面表现得比计算机好，每个方面以后会被计算机越来越多的超越，这是肯定的，或者文明能够取胜，这是两个可能。
My view is that computer may be clever, but human beings are much smarter. Clever is very academic, it’s knowledge-driven; smarter is experience-driven. Computer is clever, but it’s human being, we invented computer, we never see a computer invented a human being.
Second point is that about Go play chess. It’s stupid to compete with a computer on play Go. Just like a hundred years ago when human being created cars, human being say I can run faster than car, it’s impossible. It’s only stupid people to compete with a car who run faster. Go is designed for human to play with human. The chess is designed for human to human, why should a human to fight against a computer? So, I never ever play chess or Go with computer. I will be happy to see two computers fight each other, I’m not interested in playing Go with chess. So, I told those guys they are very sad, computer will be smarter than human beings because computers can play chess better. I think you’re stupid to compete with that, don’t do that. We always do things we are good at.
What would be an example of something that humans are better than computer and let’s see if that happens?
Computer is only one of the clever tools that humans created. Computers are clever, but there will be more tools that human beings will create much clever than computer. That’s my view.
Let me tell you my view on AI is essentially you can view the advancement of AI as solving things with increasing degrees of freedom. So, the most degree of freedom is reality. AI is steadily advanced, solving things that have more and more degrees of freedom. Obviously, something like checker was very easy to solve. We can solve with classical software, classical computing, not really challenging. And there is complete solution for checkers, meaning it’s literally impossible. Every version of checkers is known. Chess, it had many many more degrees of freedom than checkers, was still really I would say a low degree of freedom game. Then there is Go which had more degrees of freedom than chess. So, it’s really steeping through all these magnitudes of degree of freedom, this is the way to view the advancement of intelligence. We can completely simulate a person in every way like many people simultaneously.
Someone make a joke of like, you know, if life was a video game, what would be the view. Graphics are incredible, the plot is confusing. The reborn takes a long time, that’s video game, that’s life. Takes 20 years for human being to have consciousness. I’m worried about the birth rate which you iterate early, most people think we have too many people on the planet, but actually this is an outdated view. It’s seeming that AI is fine, it’s seeming that there is enabling future with AI. I think the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years is population collapse. I want to emphasize this, the biggest issue in 20 years will be population collapse. Not explosion, collapse. It’s very easy to see what the world would look like in 20 years because humans have a 20 year ooze-quence. So, like you said who was born last year, now you know what the world would look like in 20 years, it’s that easy.
I absolutely agree with that the population problem is gonna be facing huge challenge. 1.4 billion people in China sounds a lot, but I think next 20 years will see this thing will bring big trouble to China, the speed of population decreasing is gonna speed up, you called collapse, I agree with that, accelerating collapse.
Commenter bubbles what about immigration? Like from where? There are people there right now, there are robuts there.
This is something that we should pay special attention, that’s why the 18 million new babies born in China, which was less than only 1% something, we should spend more time create these people and treat life better.
But also, I think about AI, there is another thing. In our company, AI, we called Alibaba intelligence, because we think when things with order, things with logic, machine can always do better, AI can do better. But if things are without order, without logic, human can do better. For example, when you love somebody, there is no reason normally, I just love him/her, I have no reason. But when I hate somebody, when I want to do bad thing on somebody, there is logic. When there is logic, AI can do better. What we do on our Ant financing, we teach machine all the bad things that bad guys want to do. Machine can learn quickly and arrest all the bad guys immediately. But when you want to do good things, not necessarily.
AI means love.
That’s absolutely right. That is why the world, if the AI can bring love, which I called, in the past if you are be successful person, you have to be EQ and IQ. In the future, if you want to survive in this world, you have to be the LQ, that’s important too. Otherwise, cannot survive the artificial intelligence time.
Love this answer.
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