美国股市反弹科技股IPO乏力

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美国股市反弹科技股IPO乏力

天之聪教育 2013-08-27 天之聪教育 365次

美国股市反弹科技股IPO乏力

Quirk of Rally: Dearth of Tech IPOs

Initial public offerings from technology-related companies and booming U.S. stock markets usually go together in pairings such as Priceline.com and 1999. Not this year.

科技行业相关公司的首次公开募股(IPO)和欣欣向荣的美国股市通常成对出现，比如1999年的Priceline.com。但今年不是这样。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 15% since Jan. 1, even after declining 3% this month largely on jitters about corporate earnings and expectations that the Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus measures in the coming months. At the current pace, the number of IPOs in the U.S. could hit 200, the most since 2007.

由于公司业绩令人担忧且预期美联储(Federal Reserve)未来几个月将缩减刺激措施，道琼斯指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)本月下滑3%，但即便如此，该指数自今年1月1日以来仍攀升15%。以目前的速度计算，今年美国IPO数量可能达到200桩，为2007年以来之最。

Yet just 16% of new U.S. listings this year have been technology or Internet companies, according to Dealogic. By that measure, 2013 could be the second-worst showing since at least 1995. In 1999, at the height of the dot-com boom, 69% of all IPOs were tech-related stocks.

然而Dealogic数据显示，今年美国申请上市的公司中仅有16%是科技公司或网络公司。以此衡量，2013年可能是至少从1995年以来表现第二差的年头。1999年正值网络公司热潮，当年的IPO有69%为科技相关股。

There have been 22 tech and Internet listings this year, raising $3.2 billion, the slowest annual pace in four years. The overall market has produced 134 U.S. IPOs this year.

今年已有22家科技和网络公司上市，总计筹资32亿美元，年增长率为四年来最低。今年整体市场已进行了134桩美国IPO。

And one of the most-anticipated IPOs, from Alibaba Group Holding, could skip U.S. stock markets altogether. The operator of Chinese shopping websites is in discussions with the Hong Kong exchange about listing there, according to people familiar with the discussions.

同时，最受期待的阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba Group Holding)的IPO可能完全跳过美国股市。了解谈判情况的人士说，这家中国购物网站运营商正与香港交易所讨论在香港上市。

That is where Alibaba previously listed one of its subsidiaries, and Hong Kong is closer to its home market and customers in China. A spokesman said the company hadn't made an IPO filing nor a decision on where it would list.

阿里巴巴子公司之一此前也是在香港上市，同时香港也更接近阿里巴巴在中国内地的本土市场和客户。阿里巴巴发言人说，该公司尚未提交IPO申请，也没有决定在哪里上市。

Some money managers worry that once the stock market is no longer the beneficiary of easy money from central banks, the dearth of tech IPOs will expose the fragility of this year's rally.

一些投资经理担心，一旦股市不再受益于央行提供的刺激资金，科技类IPO的缺乏将暴露今年股市反弹的脆弱。

Recent history shows that broader-market rallies are usually accompanied by an IPO market that is heavy with technology companies. Only in one year since 1993 has the S&P 500 index risen by a double-digit percentage without tech companies making up more than 20% of the IPO market.

近期历史表明，更大范围的市场反弹通常与有大量科技公司参与的IPO市场同步。1993年以来，在科技公司占IPO市场比重不超过20%的情况下，标普500指数实现两位数字增幅的情况只有一年。

'Tech IPOs in particular require investors to have pretty strong faith in the future, because you're buying these things on the cusp,' said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. 'Robust appetite for tech IPOs is a fabulous indicator of investor enthusiasm.'

Harris Private Bank的首席投资长阿布林(Jack Ablin)说，科技类IPO尤其需要投资者对未来有相当强的信心，因为你买的是尖端的东西。对科技类IPO的强劲胃口是投资者热情的最佳指标。

The epic stock rally of the 1990s was driven in large part by investor enthusiasm over debuts such as Netscape Communications and Amazon.com. The market bounce that started in 2003 featured the initial public offering of Google in 2004. But technology and Internet companies are making up a much smaller share of IPOs than in past multiyear stock advances, attributable in part to Facebook Inc.'s disappointing IPO debut and to the fact that Silicon Valley is awash in private capital.

上世纪90年代的股市大反弹在很大程度上是受投资者对于网景(Netscape Communications)和亚马逊(Amazon.com)等公司首次上市的热情。2003年开始的市场反弹中，谷歌2004年IPO扮演了重要角色。但如今科技和网络公司在IPO中所占的比例大大低于以往持续多年的股市上涨，这在一定程度上要归因于Facebook Inc.令人失望的IPO表现，以及硅谷充斥着私人资本的事实。

Technology stocks have risen this year, but have lagged behind the broader market. The S&P 500 Information Technology index is up 11%, while the broader S&P 500 index is up 17%. Apple shares, which are down 6% year to date, have weighed on tech stocks.

科技类股今年上涨，但落后于整体市场。标普500信息科技指数(S&P 500 Information Technology index)上涨11%，而整体的标普500指数涨幅为17%。苹果股价今年迄今下跌6%，令科技类股承压。

Investors have been pulling money out of technology funds this year -- $365 million has been withdrawn from U.S. mutual funds focused on tech stocks, according to Lipper. That is in contrast to the period leading up to Facebook's IPO. From February to April 2012, before Facebook's debut that May, U.S. tech-stock mutual funds raked in $411 million in new investor money.

投资者今年一直在从科技业基金中撤出资金――基金信息提供商理柏(Lipper)的数据显示，专注于科技股的美国共同基金已遭遇3.65亿美元撤资。这与Facebook进行IPO之前的阶段形成鲜明对比。2012年2月至4月，美国科技股共同基金募集了4.11亿美元新投资资金，Facebook于2012年5月上市。

While the pace of tech IPOs has slowed, the performance of the stocks after their debuts has been strong. Through Aug. 12, technology and Internet companies that had gone public this year had gained 64% on average from their offer prices, according to Dealogic.

虽然科技类IPO的步伐放缓，但科技类股上市后的表现强劲。Dealogic数据显示，截至8月12日，今年上市的科技和网络公司平均较募股价上涨64%。

A recent turnaround in Facebook stock could also help draw more IPOs back into the market. Its shares have rallied 52% this year, and are now tracking back above their original IPO price of $38 a share.

Facebook股票最近的好转可能也会帮助吸引更多的IPO回到市场。该股今年上涨了52%，目前重回每股38美元的IPO价格上方。

That could have an impact on sentiment among retail investors. At the time, Facebook's IPO had 'brought people off the sidelines' who hadn't traded in months, said Steve Quirk, senior vice president at TD Ameritrade Holding Corp., a discount retail brokerage based in Omaha, Neb. 'There haven't really been any IPOs since that have given people a reason to be interested.'

这可能影响了散户投资者的人气。内布拉斯加州奥马哈的低收费散户经纪商TD Ameritrade Holding Corp.的高级副总裁夸克(Steve Quirk)说，当时Facebook的IPO让人们离场，好几个月没有进行交易。在那之后还没有任何IPO让人们有感兴趣的理由。

Fund managers also say that they learned many lessons about what kinds of Internet companies make sustainable investments in the aftermath of the 2011 and 2012 mini-wave of tech IPOs, which also included coupon-seller Groupon Inc., games-maker Zynga Inc., and streaming-music service Pandora Media Inc. All three stocks had fallen below their initial price within six months of their debut, although Pandora and Groupon have traded above that level recently.

基金经理们也说，在2011和2012年的一小波科技类IPO之后，他们对于哪些类型的网络公司进行了可持续投资学到了很多教训。那一次的科技公司上市潮包括团购网站Groupon Inc.、游戏公司Zynga Inc.以及音乐流媒体服务Pandora Media Inc.。所有三只股票在上市后六个月内都跌破发行价，但Pandora和Groupon的股价最近都一度回升至发行价上方。

Companies learned that they may need to postpone going public until they have convinced investors of their unassailable scale. They have used private financing, which is abundant in Silicon Valley, to buy time to hone their strategies. This may mean a slower pace of IPOs, and that some companies never get to the finish line. But it could also herald better-performing deals over the longer term, some executives and investors say.

公司都深知，在让投资者相信它们无可置疑的能力之前，他们可能需要推迟上市。他们利用硅谷丰富的私人融资去争取时间，打磨战略。这可能意味着IPO步伐更缓慢，以及一些公司可能永远没有机会到达终点。但一些高管和投资者说，从长远看，这也可能预示着表现更好的IPO交易。

If 'you have plenty of capital to grow your business, and every year you grow it there's less uncertainty, more predictability of revenue. . .why would you go public?' said Niraj Shah, chief executive of Wayfair, the Internet housewares retailer that operates websites including JossandMain.com and Wayfair.com.

居家商品网络零售商Wayfair的首席执行长沙阿(Niraj Shah)说，如果你有充足的资金用于发展业务，而且每年都在增长，不确定性更低、营收更可预测……那为什么还要上市？Wayfair运营着JossandMain.com和Wayfair.com等网站。

Wayfair raised $201 million in 2011 by selling private shares to institutional investors. Mr. Shah said an IPO remains a goal, but it isn't working on one right now.

Wayfair在2011年通过向机构投资者出售非公开股份筹资2.01亿美元。沙阿说，IPO仍是公司目标，但目前并未致力于此。

More tech companies are raising money at billion-dollar valuations before they go public, according to figures compiled by Credit Suisse and data provider Pitchbook Data, based on public fundraising disclosures. The median value of the 15 largest private fundraisings -- including a funding round completed by Twitter -- was more than $1 billion for the first time in 2011.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)和数据提供商Pitchbook Data依据公开披露的筹资情况汇集的数据显示，越来越多的科技公司在上市之前以数十亿美元的估值募集资金。2011年，15次最大规模的私募行动中值首次超过10亿美元，其中包括推特(Twitter)进行的一轮融资。

'Because companies don't want to, or sometimes can't, go public at valuations below their last private round, it extends the runway before they can confidently tap the public,' said Cully Davis, a managing director in equity capital markets at Credit Suisse.

瑞信股权资本市场董事总经理戴维斯(Cully Davis)说，因为公司不想，有时也不能以低于最后一轮私人筹款的估值上市，因而在能够自信地打动公众之前推迟了上市。

High-profile companies are waiting in the wings.

一些备受瞩目的公司已经做好了准备。

Midasplayer International Holding, the company better known as King that is behind the smartphone game Candy Crush Saga, may go public as soon as November, people familiar with its thinking said. A spokesman declined to comment.

知情人士说，智能手机游戏Candy Crush Saga 的开发公司Midasplayer International Holding可能最早在今年11月上市。该公司发言人拒绝置评。

Twitter is weighing an IPO next year, people familiar with the company's plans said. CEO Dick Costolo said earlier this year that an IPO is 'not what I spend my time thinking about or focusing on day to day.'

了解推特规划的人士说，该公司正考虑明年上市。推特首席执行长科斯特罗(Dick Costolo)今年早些时候说，IPO不是我每天花时间考虑或关注的事情。

Online 'cloud' data storage firm Box Inc. has said it is also preparing a possible 2014 IPO.

在线云数据存储公司Box Inc.也说其正准备可能在2014年进行的IPO。