中国跌入“中等收入陷阱”？
China Recovery? Don’t Uncork the Champagne in Beijing Just Yet
根据上周五的报告，中国经济增长速度在连续七个季度下降之后，于2012年第四季度实现反弹。市场分析师将此称为复苏。
China reported on Friday that its economy rebounded in the fourth quarter after seven straight quarters of declining growth. Market analysts are touting a recovery.
但加州大学伯克利分校(University of California at Berkeley)经济学家艾肯格林(Barry Eichengreen)、亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)经济学家朴东炫(Donghyun Park)和高丽大学(Korea University)经济学家Kwanho Shin提醒北京先别开始庆祝。他们说，中国经济增幅已经从2010年超过10%滑落至目前的8%左右，几年后可能还会有一次急剧减速。
But economists Barry Eichengreen of the University of California at Berkeley, Donghyun Park of the Asian Development Bank and Kwanho Shin of Korea University warn that Beijing shouldn’t start celebrating yet. China’s economy has already downshifted from more than 10% growth in 2010 to about 8% growth now and another sharp deceleration is likely to occur in a couple of years, they say.
艾肯格林说，从我们的研究结果来看，几年后可能会再次出现深度减速，但不一定是必然的。
“Our results point to the possibility, but not the certainty, that there will be another step deceleration (in growth) in a few years,” Mr. Eichengreen says.
三位经济学家在2011年发表的一篇分析报告引起了轩然大波。报告说，若按购买力平价换算成2005年的美元，高增长国家的人均GDP一旦达到1.5万美元左右，其增长速度往往下降至少两个百分点。这就是所谓的“中等收入陷阱”。（采用购买力平价换算，是为消除不同国家产品的价格差异。）三位经济学家说，中国的人均GDP几年后就将达到这一水平。
The three economists made a splash with a 2011 analysis that said fast-growing countries tend to slow down by at least two percentage points once they hit a median GDP per capita of around $15,000 in 2005 dollars the so-called “middle-income trap” ─ using purchasing power parity adjustments. (PPP tries to account for different prices of products in different countries.) China would hit that mark in a few years, the economist said.
在本月发表的一篇新论文中，这三位经济学家完善了估计，发现经济增长一般是分两步放缓。第一步是在人均GDP达到按2005年美元计算的1.1万美元左右时，和中国目前的水平差不多，第二步是在人均GDP达到1.5万美元时，可能就是中国在几年之后的水平。
In a new paper published this month, the three economists refined their estimates and found that growth usually slows in two steps. The first is when a country reaches GDP per capita of around $11,000 in 2005 dollars, roughly where China is now, and at $15,000, roughly where China is likely to be in a couple of years.
如果中国遵循这一模式，那么它的经济增长可能就会再次下降两个百分点左右，并维持数年。
If China follows the pattern, it would experience another decline in growth of 2 percentage points or so, which would last for years.
三位经济学家没有具体地讲哪些东西有可能导致中国减速，但很多东西都可以，比如金融危机、制造业竞争力削弱或政治危机。他们写道，到某个时候，中等收入国家的高增长将走到尽头，届时唾手可得的果实都已摘下，高回报投资都已完成。
The economists don’t say specifically what could trip up China, though many things could, including a financial crisis, a loss of manufacturing competitiveness or a political crisis. “At some point, high growth in middle-income countries will come to an end,” the three economists write. “The low-hanging fruit will have been picked and high-return investments will have been completed.”
减速并非不可避免。艾肯格林说，在民众受教育程度相对较高、出口产品高科技比重相对较大的国家，减速概率更小。中国在这两个方面的表现都还可以。
Slowdowns aren’t inevitable. Mr. Eichengreen says they are less likely in countries that have a relatively educated public and whose exports include a relatively high share of high-tech goods. China scores reasonably well on both counts.
但艾肯格林提醒，有些人会说中国在这两个方面的数字都具有欺骗性：教育传授的不是企业需要的技能，高科技出口中加工贸易比重太大。在加工贸易中，高科技零部件是在其他国家生产的。
But, Mr. Eichengreen warns: “Some people will argue that the (China’s) numbers (on education and high-tech) are deceptive: The education is not delivering the skills that enterprises need, and high-tech exports are heavily processing trade,” where the high-tech parts of the products are made elsewhere.
WSJ
2013-01-22
WSJ
907次
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