中国工资水平上涨对经济是好是坏？

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中国工资水平上涨对经济是好是坏？

天之聪教育 2013-05-21 天之聪教育 260次

中国工资水平上涨对经济是好是坏？

Rising Wages Pose Dilemma For China

China is showing rapid increases in wages and signs of resilience in hiring despite slowing growth, a reassuring sign for leaders seeking to put more money in the pockets of ordinary Chinese, but a trend that could prove difficult to sustain as countries nearby threaten to encroach on China's manufacturing dominance.

        尽管经济增长放缓，但中国的薪资水平正迅速增长，招聘活动也显示出恢复迹象，这对寻求让中国普通人获得更多财富的中国领导人是一个令人欣慰的现象，但鉴于中国附近的一些国家可能侵蚀中国制造业的主导地位，这一趋势可能难以持续。

        Chinese private-sector wages rose 14% in 2012, data showed Friday, good news overall for Beijing's push to make consumer spending a more important part of growth. But higher labor costs also hurt business profitability and export competitiveness─which could pose its own risks to the economic recovery.

        周五公布的数据显示，2012年中国私营部门的工资水平增长了14%，总地来说，这有助于中国政府实现使消费者支出在增长中扮演更重要角色的计划。不过，劳动力成本的上升也损害了企业的盈利能力和出口竞争力，这有可能为经济复苏带来风险。

        Countries such as Bangladesh, Cambodia and Vietnam have all ramped up their garment sectors as global retailers look for alternatives to China.

        随着全球零售商开始寻找中国之外的其他生产地，孟加拉国、柬埔寨和越南等国都扩大了服装制造业规模。

        Crystal Group, an apparel producer for Marks & Spencer, MKS.LN +2.34% Abercrombie & Fitch, ANF +1.73% and Gap, says it has more than tripled its staff in Vietnam over the past three years, but made only small increases in its China workforce. 'It's a simple matter of economics for us,' says Andrew Lo, CEO of the Hong Kong-based company, as it becomes less cost-effective to make basic t-shirts and jeans in China.

        晶苑集团(Crystal Group)是玛莎百货(Marks & Spencer)、Abercrombie & Fitch和Gap的服装生产商。晶苑集团说，过去三年，该公司在越南的员工数量增加了两倍，但中国工人数量只有小幅增加。这家香港公司的首席执行长罗正亮(Andrew Lo)说，这对我们来说是个简单的经济学问题。在中国生产基本的T恤衫和牛仔裤不再那么划算。

        The 14% wage rise for private-sector workers in 2012, reported by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Friday, represented an acceleration from 12.3% in 2011. Over the period, China's annual economic growth rate slowed to 7.8% from 9.3%.

        中国国家统计局周五公布，2012年私营部门的工资水平增长了14%，高于2011年的12.3%的增长速度。在这段时期，中国的年度经济增速从9.3%下降到了7.8%。

        A recent spate of accidents, including a factory-building collapse in Bangladesh that killed more than 1,100, has focused new attention on a shift away from China as costs rise there.

        最近，包括孟加拉工厂大楼倒塌在内的一系列意外事件使人们重新开始关注中国成本上升导致制造商向中国以外地区转移的情况。孟加拉工厂大楼倒塌导致超过1,100人死亡。

        Some experts say worries that China is pricing itself out of its manufacturing edge may be overblown. Supply-chain linkages, strong infrastructure and access to China's own market make the case for keeping a foothold. Overall, most manufacturers operating in China are still profitable even though their margins are being squeezed, says Nigel Knight, who heads Ernst & Young's advisory practice for greater China.

        一些专家说，对于中国劳动力成本上升可能使其失去制造业优势的担忧可能并无必要。供应链的联动、强大的基础设施，以及进入中国市场的渠道使中国有理由保持住制造业的地位。安永(Ernst & Young)大中华区的咨询业务的负责人奈特(Nigel Knight)说，整体来说，虽然利润率受到了挤压，大多数在中国运营的制造商仍然能够盈利。

        'I don't see a huge rush for the doors,' says Mr. Knight. 'The underlying strategic rationale for manufacturing in China is still very powerful.'

        奈特说，我不认为制造商在逃离中国，在中国生产的战略依据仍然非常强大。

        Meanwhile, job creation and wage increases are a key focus for China's leaders. In the past, turbocharged growth was seen as essential to creating enough employment opportunities for a swelling workforce. On a visit to the northern city of Tianjin this week, China's top leader, Xi Jinping, signaled a continued focus on employment by visiting a local job-training center and pledging to improve services for job seekers.

        与此同时，制造就业和提高工资水平是中国领导人关注的重点。过去人们认为，要为不断增长的劳动力大军创造足够的就业机会，就必须实现强劲的经济增长。习近平上周在中国北部城市天津考察期间来到了当地的一个就业培训中心，并承诺改善对求职者的服务，这代表着中国政府对就业的持续关注。

        Continued strength in the labor markets suggests that China can now create sufficient jobs to shore up social stability with a significantly lower pace of growth. 'Strength in the labor markets means there is less need for short-term stimulus measures,' said RBS China economist Louis Kuijs.

        劳动力市场保持强劲意味着，中国现在可以制造足够的就业机会，在经济增长严重放缓的情况下维持社会稳定。苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)中国经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)说，劳动力市场的强劲意味着对短期刺激措施的需求减弱。

        Big increases in wages also help the rebalancing of China's economy─a key objective for the new leadership. With growth in wages outstripping the rest of the economy, households' slice of the pie is getting bigger. The government hopes that will drive higher levels of consumption, helping wean the economy off its addiction to exports and investment as drivers of growth.

        工资水平的大幅上涨还有助于中国经济再平衡──这是中国新领导班子的一个关键目标。由于工资水平的增速超过了经济其他领域，家庭获得的社会财富比重也在增大。政府希望这将驱动消费水平的提升，帮助中国经济摆脱对出口和投资作为增长动力的依赖。

        Rising manufacturing costs in China were one reason private-equity firm Grumman Hill Group LLC decided to put shoe maker Aerosoles up for sale this year, a person familiar with the matter said. The Edison, N.J.-based shoe company makes virtually all of its products in China, but wage inflation there is pressuring margins, this person said.

        一位知情人士说，中国制造成本不断上升是私募股权投资公司Grumman Hill Group LLC决定今年出售制鞋厂商爱柔仕(Aerosoles)的原因之一。上述人士说，总部位于美国新泽西州爱迪生(Edison)的制鞋商爱柔仕在中国生产几乎所有的产品。但中国工人工资上涨正在挤压利润空间。

        Wages in the China's manufacturing sector have risen 71% since 2008, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Improvements in labor productivity, which the World Bank estimates is growing at about 8.3% a year, offset some but not all of the wage growth.

        中国国家统计局的数据表明，自2008年以来，中国制造业工资水平已经上升了71%。劳动生产率的提高部分抵消了工资上涨带来的压力。据世界银行(World Bank)估计，中国劳动生产率大约以每年8.3%的速度提高。

        An executive with Guangdong Sunrise Houseware Corp.─a maker of high-end kitchenware for export─said last year the firm's labor costs rose at least 30%. 'We have more than 600 workers, many of them left last year,' he said. 'When you hire new people you found that the average wage level had already risen.'

        广东阳晨厨具有限公司(Guangdong Sunrise Houseware Corp.)一位管理人员去年表示，该公司劳动力成本至少增加了30%。他指出，该公司有600多名工人，其中不少人在去年辞职，等到招聘新员工时，就发现平均工资水平已经上升。

        With that experience replicated across China's factories, industrial profits contracted for much of 2012. Export growth fell to 7.9% from 20.3% in 2011, as Chinese firms lost out to Vietnam and other low-cost competitors. That suggests China's leaders face a tough choice between keeping wages on a rising trend to boost household income, and controlling costs for the manufacturers that create many of the mainland's jobs.

        随着类似情况在国内制造企业蔓延，2012年多数时候工业利润都处在萎缩状态。出口增速从2011年的20.3%降至7.9%，中国企业在越南和其他低成本竞争对手面前败下阵来。这表明中国领导人正面临着一个艰难选择：一方面要保持工资上涨的趋势以提高家庭收入，另一方面则要控制创造了内地很多就业机会的制造企业的成本。

        Other data show signs the strength extended into this year despite a continuing slowdown. Data made available to The Wall Street Journal from Zhaopin.com, one of China's largest recruitment websites, shows the total number of jobs advertised rose 24.6% in April from a year earlier. At the same time, government data showed demand for workers outstripping supply by a record amount in the first quarter.

        其他数据显示，有迹象表明，尽管经济增速持续放缓，但今年就业市场仍延续强劲势头。《华尔街日报》见到的、由中国最大的招聘网站之一智联招聘(Zhaopin.com)提供的数据显示，今年4月刊登广告的职位总数同比增长24.6%。与此同时，政府数据显示，第一季度用工需求超出工人供应量的缺口创纪录新高。

        A migrant worker from Wuhan in central China who gave his surname as Chang is one who has benefited. In February he quit his job at an auto-parts factory in the southern city of Shenzhen because the monthly salary of 2,800 yuan ($455) didn't meet his expectations. In April, after a month of searching, he found a new job making shells for cellphones, with a take-home pay of 4,200 yuan a month. 'I'm not very anxious to find a job so it took a while,' said Mr. Chang.

        来自中部城市武汉的外来务工人员常先生就是其中一名受益者。他在2月份辞去了深圳一家汽车零部件厂的工作，原因是每月人民币2,800元的工资未能达到他的预期。在经过一个月的求职之后，他于4月份找到了一份生产手机外壳的新工作，每月实得收入为人民币4,200元。常先生表示，他并不急着找工作，所以耽搁了一段时间。

        Not all the most recent indicators on labor markets have been positive. China's official purchasing managers' index, and a similar survey by HSBC Holdings HSBA.LN +1.28% PLC and business survey firm Markit Economics both suggest some factories laid off workers in April.

        与此同时，并非近期公布的所有就业市场指标都表现乐观。中国公布的官方采购经理人指数(PMI)以及汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings PLC)携手企业调查机构Markit Economics公布的类似调查均显示，一些制造企业在4月份裁员。

        A spokesman for Zhaopin.com also pointed to signs that hiring had eased off going into the second quarter. 'Many companies are pessimistic about the Chinese market in 2013, and that is passing through to recruitment plans,' said a spokesman for the company, 'after a hiring peak in the first quarter sentiment has deteriorated somewhat.'

        智联招聘的一位发言人也提到了有迹象表明，进入二季度以来企业招聘有所放缓。这位发言人说，许多企业对2013年的中国市场持悲观态度，这也反映在企业的招聘计划上。今年一季度出现招聘高峰后，企业情绪有所降温。

        'So far we haven't seen unemployment rates going up, with real estate, infrastructure, and services supporting strong job creation,' said Haibin Zhu, China economist at J.P. Morgan JPM +2.61% . 'But wage growth can't be sustained without profit growth. If the corporate sector remains weak, rapid wage growth will be difficult to sustain.'

        摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)中国经济学家朱海斌表示，目前尚未发现国内失业率上升的迹象；房地产、基础设施和服务业给就业岗位的大幅增加提供了支撑，但如果利润不增长，工资上涨也将难以为继；如果企业依然疲软，那么工资的快速上涨将无法持续。