Yesterday I did a Reddit Ask Me Anything session on COVID-19. As usual, Redditors asked a lot of smart questions, and it was a great opportunity to have a fact-based discussion about this pandemic and what we can do to prevent the next one. (And as I mentioned in this exchange, it’s nice to have so many positive interactions in such an uncertain time.)

昨天我在Reddit（一个社交新闻站点）的“问我任何事”栏目上做了一场新冠病毒（COVID-19）的专题问答。像往常一样，Reddit的网友问了很多聪明的问题，这也是一个很好的机会，让大家得以基于事实来讨论这场大流行病，以及我们能做些什么来预防下一次的疫情（正如我在这场交流中谈到的那样，在这样一个不确定的时期，能有如此积极的互动，真是非常好的一次经历）。

Below is a transcript of all the questions I could get to (lightly edited for length), along with my answers. I’ll be sharing more about COVID-19 here on the Gates Notes and on my social channels. In the meantime, stay healthy and keep washing your hands!

本文就是这些问题以及我所做出的回答（篇幅略有调整）。

我将在“盖茨笔记（gatesnotes.com）”和其他的社交媒体上分享更多关于新冠病毒（COVID-19）的信息。

同时，祝大家保持健康，勤洗手！

Redditor’s question: What about the current crisis worries you the most? What gives you the most hope?

当前的疫情危机中，最让你担心的是什么？什么给了你最大的希望？

My answer: The current phase has a lot of the cases in rich countries. With the right actions including the testing and social distancing (which I call “shut down”) within 2-3 months the rich countries should have avoided high levels of infection. I worry about all the economic damage but even worse will be how this will affect the developing countries who cannot do the social distancing the same way as rich countries and whose hospital capacity is much lower.

当前，很多富裕国家也深陷疫情。如果采取合理的措施，包括检测以及“保持社交距离”（Social Distancing），我称之为“闭关”（Shut down），那么在2到3个月之内，这些国家应该就能避免大规模感染。我担心疫情带来的所有经济损失，更糟的是，这一切将如何影响发展中国家，他们无法像富裕国家那样进行隔离，医疗条件也要差很多。

Can you explain briefly what most Americans can do to help other Americans in this moment of crisis?

你能简单说说在此危机时刻大多数美国人应该如何帮助他人吗？

A big thing is to go along with the “shut down” approach in your community so that the infection rate drops dramatically to let us go back to normal as soon as possible. Some people like health care workers will be doing heroic work and we need to support them. We do need to stay calm even though this is an unprecedented situation.

关键就是在你的社区采取刚才我提到的“闭关”措施，感染率会因此急剧下降并让我们的生活尽快回复正轨。医护人员的作为堪称英勇，我们需要支持他们的工作。即使这是一个前所未有的情况，我们也需要时刻保持冷静。

Is there any chance that the 18 month timeline for development of a vaccine can be shortened, and by how much?

18个月的疫苗研发周期能缩短吗？能缩短多少？

This is a great question. There are over 6 different efforts going on to make a vaccine. Some use a new approach called RNA which is unproven. We will have to build lots of manufacturing for the different approaches knowing that some of them will not work. We will need literally billions of vaccines to protect the world. Vaccines require testing to make sure they are safe and effective. Some vaccines like the flu don’t for the elderly.

这是一个很棒的问题。目前同时进行的疫苗研发方式超过6种。有人在采用一种名为RNA的新方法。针对不同的方法，我们都将进行大量研制，因为我们知道有些方法会失败。我们将需要数十亿剂的疫苗来保护世界。疫苗需要经过测试以确保其安全有效。有些疫苗（如目前的季节性流感疫苗）对老年人的保护作用有限。

The first vaccines we get will go to health care workers and critical workers. This could happen before 18 months if everything goes well but we and Dr. Fauci and others are being careful not to promise this when we are not sure. The work is going at full speed.

我们获得的首批疫苗将提供给医护人员及关键岗位的工作人员。如果一切顺利，或许用不了18个月，但我们和安东尼· 福奇（美国传染病专家Anthony Fauci博士）以及其他人，都需要谨慎地避免在不确定的情况下做出承诺。疫苗研发的工作正在全速进行。

I’d also like to ask the same thing, but with regards to the timeline for an effective treatment.

我也想问问关于有效疗法的进展。

A therapeutic could be available well before a vaccine. Ideally this would reduce the number of people who need intensive care including respirators. The Foundation has organized a Therapeutics Accelerator to look at all the most promising ideas and bring all the capabilities of industry into play. So I am hopeful something will come out of this. It could be an anti-viral or antibodies or something else.

有效的治疗办法应该会比疫苗早出现。理想的情况下，这将减少需要采用呼吸机等措施的重症监护病例。盖茨基金会已经组织了一个“治疗加速器”（Therapeutics Accelerator）项目来发掘最有前景的治疗办法并汇集整个行业的能力。我期待能催生出有前景的方案，可能是抗病毒药物，抗体或其他治疗办法。

One idea that is being explored is using the blood (plasma) from people who are recovered. This may have antibodies to protect people. If it works it would be the fastest way to protect health care workers and patients who have severe disease.

目前正在探索的一个办法是使用已被治愈病例的血液（血浆），其中或有抗体能起到保护作用。如果确实有效，这将是保护医护人员和危重症患者的最快方法。

As an educator, what is something I can do for my students?

作为教育工作者，我能为学生们做些什么？

especially for my low-income students who don’t have access to technology during this time? I have tried to send reassuring emails (including cat pictures), but I worry about the educational impact, as well as the long-term impact to my students’ well being.

特别是这段时间无法获得技术支持的低收入学生。我试过给他们发安慰的邮件（还放上了猫咪的图片），但还是担心疫情对教育和学生们的健康会造成长期影响。

It is a huge problem that schools will likely be shut down for the next few months. I am impressed by the creative approaches that many teachers are coming up with to teach remotely. (If you are a teacher reading this, thank you for the work you’re doing.) But I know that not everyone is set up to teach remotely. There are a lot of good online resources out there, including Khan Academy, CommonLit, Illustrative Mathematics, Zearn, and Scholastic. Comcast and other internet connectivity providers are doing special programs to help with access. Microsoft and others are working on getting machines out but the supply chain is quite constrained. Unfortunately low-income students will be hurt more by the situation than others so we need to help any way we can.

未来几个月，学校很可能会关闭，这确实是个大问题。但令我印象深刻的是，很多老师都用到了富有创意的远程教学方式（如果您就是这样一位老师，感谢您所做的这项工作）。但我知道，并不是每个人都有条件进行远程教学。现在线上也有很多优质的教育资源，如可汗学院、CommonLit、图解数学、Zearn和Scholastic等等。Comcast和其他网络连通的供应商正在实施专项计划来帮人获取这些在线资源。微软和其他公司也在努力提供硬件，但供应链的压力非常大。不幸的是，这种情况下低收入学生受到的影响更大，我们需要尽可能地对他们提供帮助。

What do you think about China’s response to the outbreak? How would you rate their response on a scale 1-10?

您如何评价中国应对疫情暴发做出的反应？如果从1到10评分，您会给中国打几分？

After January 23 when they realized how serious it was they did strong social isolation which made a huge difference. Of course that isolation created a lot of difficulties for the people involved but they were able to stop the case spread. Other countries will do it somewhat differently but a combination of testing and social isolation clearly works and that is all we have until we get a vaccine.

1月23日之后，中国意识到了疫情的严重性，然后实行了强有力的隔离措施，收效显著。当然，隔离给所有人都带来了困难，但确实阻止了疫情的蔓延。其他国家的做法会有所不同，但检测和隔离的结合，显然行之有效。在获得疫苗之前，我们只能这么做。

In your opinion, after this pandemic comes to a close, however long that may be, what should be the first step we as a global community take so that we are better prepared for the next pandemic?

无论这场大流行病持续多久，在它结束之后，您认为作为一个地球村我们应当采取的首要措施是什么，怎样才能更好地应对下一场大流行病？

The TED talk I did in 2015 talked about this. We need to have the ability to scale up diagnostics, drugs and vaccines very rapidly. The technologies exist to do this well if the right investments are made. Countries can work together on this. We did create CEPI = Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation which did some work on vaccines but that needs to be funded at higher level to have the standby manufacturing capacity for the world.

2015年我在TED演讲时就谈到了这个问题。我们要具备迅速扩大诊断、药品和疫苗规模的能力。如果投资方向正确，现有的技术就能做到这一点。各国可以在这方面共同努力。我们创建了CEPI （Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation，流行病预防创新联盟），它在疫苗方面已经做了些工作，但还需要更多资金支持，才能让全球具备随时量产的能力。

Why do you think most world governments weren’t prepared if you and other experts warned of such events such as this?

您和其他专家都要对此类事件发出过警告，为何世界上的大多数政府都没做好准备呢？

No one could predict what the chance of a new virus emerging was. However we did know it would happen at some point either with a flu or some other respiratory virus. There was almost no funding. The creation of CEPI which was funded by our foundation, Wellcome, Norway, Japan, Germany, and the UK was a step but tiny compared to what should have happened. We prepare for possible wars and fires and now we have to have preparation for epidemics treated with the same seriousness. The good news is that our biological tools including new ways to make diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines make it possible to have a strong response system for naturally caused epidemics.

没人能预测一种新的病毒出现的几率。但是我们知道流感或其他呼吸道病毒一定会在某个时间发生，而世界缺乏针对这个问题的专项资金。盖茨基金会、惠康公司，以及挪威、日本、德国和英国等政府共同资助创建了CEPI，但与实际需求相比，这仍然是杯水车薪。我们会为可能发生的火灾与战争做好准备，现在，我们必须为同样严重的流行病做好准备。好消息是，我们的生物工具，包括诊断、治疗和疫苗研发的新方法，让我们有能力建起一个针对自然引起的流行病的强有力的应对系统。

I live in Seattle, like you, and it feels like our testing has not increased. Our number of confirmed cases are starting to lag behind other states. What do you think gives? Effective social distancing or lack of testing?

我和您一样住在西雅图，感觉我们的测试并没有增加。我们的确诊病例数也比其他州少。你认为这是什么原因造成的？保持社交距离的措施还是测试不够？

The testing in the US is not organized yet. In the next few weeks I hope the Government fixes this by having a website you can go to to find out about home testing and kiosks. Things are a bit confused on this right now. In Seattle the U of W is providing thousands of tests per day but no one is connected to a national tracking system.

美国的病毒检测还没有组织起来。接下来的几周，我希望政府能建一个网站来解决这个问题，你可以在网站上了解家庭检测等跟疫情相关的信息。目前的检测工作有点儿混乱。在西雅图，华盛顿大学每天可进行数千例检测，但这些检测并没有连接到国家追踪系统。

Whenever there is a positive test it should be seen to understand where the disease is and whether we need to strengthen the social distancing. South Korea did a great job on this including digital contact tracing.

只要发现一例阳性，就应该进行报告以追踪这个病例在哪里出现，并决定是否需要加强隔离。韩国在这方面就做得很好，他们建立了数字化的追踪系统。

I read the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report as well as this explanation in a historical context. Essentially, it says that by doing nothing, 4 million Americans die. Through the mitigation strategy—i.e. social distancing and “flattening the curve”— it says that 1.1-2 million Americans will die. However, it also says that the suppression strategy, or “shutting everything down for 18 months”—will lead to only a few thousand people dying.

Do you agree with these numbers, and if so, is there any excuse for not immediately issuing a shelter in place order for the entire country?

我阅读了帝国理工大学新冠肺炎COVID-19响应小组的报告，以及不同条件下的分析。基本上，如果不采取任何措施，将有400万美国人死于新冠肺炎；通过缓解策略，即“保持社交距离”以及“拉平曲线”，将有110万到200万美国人死于新冠肺炎；不过，报告还指出，如果采取强有力的“压制策略”，也就是“全面封锁18个月”，只会出现几千个死亡病例。你赞同这些数字吗？如果是，为什么不能立即在全国范围内实行“就地避难”（shelter in place）政策？

Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their “shut down” and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them. People are working on models that match what we are seeing more closely and they will become a key tool. A group called Institute for Disease Modeling that I fund is one of the groups working with others on this.

值得庆幸的是，该研究使用的模型参数似乎过于负面。中国的经验是我们能获得的最关键的数据。他们实行了有效封锁，减少了确诊病例。他们进行了广泛的检测，所以马上就看到确诊病例的大幅上扬，但是到目前为止，新增病例数已经很少了，中国成功避免了大规模的感染。帝国理工大学采用的模型，并不符合中国的情况。一个模型的好坏取决于其中的假设条件。有人正在研究跟我们看到的实际情况更吻合的模型，这将成为一个关键工具。我资助的一个名为“疾病建模研究所”（Institute for Disease Modeling）的组织，就是在此领域开展工作的组织之一。

Covid-19 testing standards seem grossly unfair in favor of the rich and famous. Testing is happening for people like professional sports players, even those without any symptoms at all. I’m not talking about health care workers or people in essential jobs- I’m talking about actors, actresses, sports players and so on. On the flip side, the guidance from Kaiser in WA is that you must have a fever of 101.5 and either serious shortness of breath or a bad cough, and even then testing results take 5 days or more.

新冠病毒的检测标准似乎对富人和名人更有利，这很不公平。正在接受检测的都是职业运动员之类，甚至根本没有症状的人。我不是说医护工作者或坚守重要岗位的人，而是诸如演员、运动员这类人。而另一方面，来自华盛顿Kaiser健康基金会的指导意见是，你必须发烧至华氏101.5度（38.6摄氏度），并伴有严重呼吸困难或剧烈咳嗽才能去做检测，而即使这样，检测结果也要等5天或更长时间。

How is it that even with something like covid-19 testing, which the government is supposed to manage, the rich and famous are getting special treatment? Is there a big stash of tests that are reserved for “people that matter”? Isn’t it hypocritical for everyone else to be told they need to look out for the common good and avoid demanding too much of the health care system, meanwhile the rich and famous get whatever they want, when they want it?

为什么即使像新冠病毒检测这类应该由政府管理的项目，富人和名人也能获得特殊待遇？是不是有大量检测都要留给所谓的“重要人物”？其他人都被告知他们需要关注公共利益，避免对医疗体系提出过高要求，而富人名人们却在需要时就能得到他们想要的，这不是很虚伪吗？

We need to democratize and scale the testing system by having a CDC website that people go to and enter their situation. Priority situations should get tested within 24 hours. This is very possible since many countries have done it. Health care workers for example should have priority. Elderly people should have priority. We will be able to catch up on the testing demand within a few weeks of getting the system in place. Without the system we don't know what is missing—swabs, reagents etc..

我们需要通过疾控中心的网站来扩大检测系统并使其“民主化”，人们可以登录网站，输入自己的情况。而优先情况应在24小时内得到检测。这是很可能实现的，因为很多国家已经在这样做了。比如医护工作者和年长者就应该享有这个优先权。我们将能够在系统就位后的几周内满足测试需求。没有这样的系统，我们就无从得知到底缺什么——是采集拭子还是试剂等。

What do you think of the current approach the Netherlands is currently taking to combat this virus? They are not going to a full lockdown but rather try to spread it controllably in order to work towards “herd immunity”.

您如何看待荷兰目前对抗疫情的策略？他们不会完全“闭关”，而是试图控制疫情的蔓延速度，以实现“群体免疫”。

The only model that is known to work is a serious social distancing effort (“shut down”). If you don’t do this then the disease will spread to a high percentage of the population and your hospitals will be overloaded with cases. So this should be avoided despite the problems caused by the “shut down”. If a country doesn't control its cases then other countries will prevent anyone going into or coming out of that country. I think the Netherlands will end up doing what other countries are doing.

目前已知的唯一有效的模式就是严格保持社交距离（闭关）。如果不这样做，被感染的人口比例会很高，医院也会超负荷运转。因此，尽管“闭关”会带来一些问题，但也应该采取严格措施。如果某个国家不能控制好，那么其他国家将会阻止任何人进出该国。我认为荷兰最终会采取其他国家正在采取的管控措施。
Thoughts on chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?

您如何评价氯喹/羟氯喹？

There are a lot of therapeutic drugs being examined. This is one of many but it is not proven. If it works we will need to make sure the finite supplies are held for the patients who need it most. We have a study going on to figure this out. We also have a screening effort to look at all the ideas for Therapeutics because the number being proposed is very large and only the most promising should be tried in patients. China was testing some things but now they have so few cases that that testing needs to move to other locations.

有很多治疗药物正在测试，氯喹或羟氯喹就是其中之一，但效果尚未得到证实。如果有效，我们需要将有限的供给提供给最有需要的人。我们正在对此进行研究，我们同时也在筛选和寻找其他有效的药物，因为候选药物的数量非常庞大，只有最有前景的药物才应该在病人身上进行测试。中国做过一些测试，但他们的病例越来越少，所以需要在其他地方开展测试。

How is your foundation helping the current pandemic? Are you donating money, producing products for health workers?

您的基金会能对疫情防控提供什么样的帮助？捐钱，还是为医护工作者生产产品？

Our foundation is working with all the groups who make diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines to make sure the right efforts are prioritized. We want to make sure all countries get access to these tools. We donated $100M in February for a variety of things and we will be doing more. One priority is to make sure that there is enough manufacturing capacity for therapeutics and vaccines. We have other efforts like our education group working to make sure the online resources for students are as helpful as they can be.

盖茨基金会正在与所有从事诊断、治疗和疫苗工作的组织展开合作，以确保正确的举措获得优先考虑。我们希望确保所有国家都能获得有效的工具。我们在二月份就为应对此次疫情的一系列工作捐赠了1亿美元，我们还将做更多的事。其中一个优先事项就是确保我们有足够的产能用于治疗药物和疫苗的生产。我们还做了其他一些工作，比如我们的教育项目组正努力确保面向学生的在线资源尽可能的有所助益。

Is there anything you can do to assist with ventilator production?

您能帮助生产呼吸机吗？

There are a lot of efforts to do this. If we do social distancing (“shut down”) properly then the surge of cases won’t be as overwhelming. Our foundation’s expertise is in diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines so we are not involved in the ventilator efforts but it could make a contribution to have more especially as the disease gets into developing countries including Africa.

这方面已经有很多工作正在开展。如果我们有效地保持社交距离（闭关），病例数就不会激增。我们基金会的专长在于诊断、治疗和疫苗，所以目前我们没有介入呼吸机的相关工作。但如果疫情蔓延至非洲等发展中国家和地区，那基金会也可以在这方面做出贡献。

Should there be a national shelter in place order? Why or why not?

应该在全国范围内执行“就地避难”（shelter in place）政策吗？

Most people can shelter in their home but for people who that doesn’t work for there should be a place for them to go. We are working on seeing if we can send test kits to people at home so they don't have to go out and so the tests get to the people who are the priority. The US still is not organized on testing.

大多数人可以在家里避难，但对那些无法做到的人来说，应该向他们提供避难场所。我们正在研究是否可以把病毒测试包寄给待在家里的人，这样他们就不必出门，而那些需要优先考虑的人就能在家进行测试。美国当前仍然没有组织起有效的检测措施。
What changes are we going to have to make to how businesses operate to maintain our economy while providing social distancing?

在保持社交距离的同时，我们必须对商业运作方式做出怎样的调整来维持经济？

The question of which businesses should keep going is tricky. Certainly food supply and the health system. We still need water, electricity and the internet. Supply chains for critical things need to be maintained. Countries are still figuring out what to keep running.

哪些企业应该继续经营是个棘手的问题。食物供应和卫生系统当然应该正常运转。我们还需要水电和网络，这些关键物资的供应链需要维持。各国对此都在探索之中。

Eventually we will have some digital certificates to show who has recovered or been tested recently or when we have a vaccine who has received it.

最终，我们将采用健康电子证书，显示哪些人是康复者或谁最近做了检测，或当我们有了疫苗时，哪些人已经进行了接种。

When will this all end?

这一切何时才能结束？

To bring it to small numbers globally we need a vaccine. Many rich countries will be able to keep the number of cases small (including the US) if they do the right things but developing countries will find it very difficult to stop the spread so a vaccine is critical. A group called GAVI helps buy vaccines for developing countries and they will play a key role once we have a vaccine being made in volume.

为了在全球将疫情控制在最小范围内，我们需要疫苗。如果采取了合理的措施，许多富裕国家（包括美国）都能使病例数保持在较低水平，但发展中国家将很难阻止疫情蔓延，因此疫苗至关重要。一旦我们有了批量生产的疫苗，那么像Gavi（The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation 全球疫苗免疫联盟）这样帮助发展中国家采购疫苗的组织将发挥关键作用。

How long will this go on?

当前这种情况还会持续多久？

This will vary a lot by country. China is seeing very few cases now because their testing and “shut down” was very effective. If a country does a good job with testing and “shut down” then within 6-10 weeks they should see very few cases and be able to open back up.

这将因国家而异。中国的病例已降至低点，他们的检测和“闭关”措施非常有效。如果一个国家在检测方面做好，并且能在6到10周内进行“闭关”，那么他们应该也能看到病例的大幅降低，并能够重新开放。

Won’t a rebound happen after the shutdown ends?

如果“闭关”结束，会出现疫情“反弹”吗？

It depends on how you deal with people coming in from other countries and how strong the testing effort was. So far in China the amount of rebound being seen is very low. They are controlling people coming into the country very tightly. Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore have all done a good job on this. If we do it right the rebounds should be fairly small in numbers. 

这取决于你如何应对入境人群，以及检测力度。到目前为止，中国疫情的反弹幅度很低。他们实行了非常严格的边控措施。中国香港、中国台湾、新加坡，在这一点上都做得非常好。如果我们也能做好，反弹病例也应该相当少。

What is the projected amount of positive cases in 1 month? 3 months? 6 months?

一个月内的确诊病例预计会到多少？三个月？六个月呢？

Any thoughts or theories as to what will happen in China when the lockdown is lifted?

您认为中国解除封锁后情况会怎样？

Is it possible that a 2nd wave could come out?

第二波疫情会出现吗？

China is not reporting much rebound. The number of cases in South Korea is going in the right direction. If people who test positive isolate themselves then the spread can be very low. The sooner people know they are infected the sooner they can isolate.

中国报告的反弹病例并不多。韩国也朝着积极的方向在发展。如果确诊的病例都能自我隔离，传染速度会非常慢。越早知道感染情况，越能尽早进行隔离。

Can you provide any estimates for how much of the world's population might become infected?

你能估计一下世界上有多少人会被感染吗？

This will vary a lot by country. Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore acted quickly and will have very few cases. Even China will stay at a low level of their population (less than .01%) so far. Thailand is another exemplar. Unfortunately in poorer countries doing social distancing is much harder. People live in close proximity and need to work to get their food so there could be countries where the virus will spread broadly.

这将因国家而异。中国台湾、中国香港和新加坡反应都很迅速，病例将非常少。中国大陆的感染比例也将会保持在一个非常低的水平（不到0.01%），泰国是另一个好的案例。不幸的是，对贫困国家而言，隔离要困难得多。人们居住的很密集，还需要持续工作来获取食物，所以可能出现病毒广泛传播的国家。

Given the economic impact of COVID-related social distancing, isolation, and quarantine, is your foundation committed to anything beyond direct medical intervention? For example, increasing funding to food banks, politically supporting bills that provide income/sick leave for workers, etc.?

考虑到这些隔离措施带来的经济影响，您的基金会除了直接的医疗干预外，还会致力于其他工作吗？例如，增加对“食品银行”的投资，在政治上支持为工人提供收入以及病假的法案等等。

The Foundation is focused on its area of expertise which is diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines. There will be lots of opportunity to give to social service organizations including food banks and I am sure people will be generous about this. Once we know who tests positive we can figure out how to support them so they can stay isolated and still get the food and medicine they need.

我们的基金会专注于这些专业领域：诊断、治疗和疫苗。我相信，大家都有很多机会捐助这些社会服务组织，包括食品银行等等，人们对此会慷慨解囊。一旦有人确诊，我们就能想办法帮助他们，在保持隔离的同时获得所需的食物和药品。

I have friend who is an NHS doctor. Since yesterday he is working without masks as they have run out. Who is hogging all the masks?

我有一位朋友是NHS（英国国家医疗服务体系）的医生，从昨天开始，他就一直在没有口罩的状态下工作，因为口罩用完了。我想问谁占用了所有口罩？

I am sorry to hear this. This is an example of why we need the social distancing to minimize the number of cases and why we need the national testing network and database to get running as soon as possible.

我对这个消息深表遗憾。这也正说明了，人们为什么需要保持社交距离，从而最大程度地减少病例数量，以及为什么我们需要让国家检测网络和数据库尽快投入使用。

What about the NY Times report that just came leaking a government document saying this will be 18 months with “multiple waves”?

《纽约时报》刚出了一篇报道，说根据一份泄露的政府文件，这次疫情将为期18个月并出现多次反复。您对此做何评价？

There are many models to look at what will happen. That article is based on a set of assumptions derived from Influenza and it doesn’t match what has happened in China or even South Korea. So we need to be humble about what we know but it does appear that social distancing with testing can get the cases down to low levels.

有许多模型可用来预测。那篇文章的基础是一套源自流感模型的假设，与中国甚至韩国的情况都不相符，所以我们需要对我们所知道的保持谦逊的态度。现在看来，保持社交距离加上有效的检测，就能使病例下降到较低水平。

But when they open back up is not like starting over? The total number of cured vs those who can still be infected is still small.

但是当解除隔离的时候，疫情是否会反弹？治愈的总人数与仍可能被感染的总人数相比，仍然是个非常小的数字。

The goal is to keep the number infected to a small percentage. In China less than .01% of the population was infected because of the measures they took. Most rich countries should be able to achieve a low level of infections. Some developing countries will not be able to do that.

我们的目标是将感染控制在很小的比例之内。在强有力的措施之下，中国只有不到0.01%的人口被感染。而大多数富裕国家也应该能将感染比例控制在很低的水平。一些发展中国家将无法做到这一点。

Do you believe the news coming out of China though? It’s hard to at this point.

你相信来自中国的消息吗？

China is doing a lot of testing. South Korea is also doing a good job of testing. Once China got serious in January they have been quite open about their cases so yes the good news is they are seeing very few infections at this point. The US needs to get its testing system organized so we see what is going on.

中国正在做大量的检测，韩国在检测方面也做得很好。中国在今年一月疫情非常严峻的时候，他们的消息已经相当公开。好消息是，他们现在的感染病例已经非常少。美国需要把检测系统组织起来，我们才能看清趋势。

What precautions should I take when delivering things such as groceries to my grandparents to limit my exposure to them?

在向祖父母们递送生活物品时，我应该采取什么措施来减少与他们的接触？

Hand washing is key. Keeping a distance. Having someone else do it if you have a fever or are coughing.

洗手是关键，并保持距离。如果你自己正在发烧或咳嗽，就让别人代劳。

Why are we not on a lockdown yet?

为什么美国还没“闭关”？

We are going into lockdown but as usual in retrospect we should have done it sooner. The sooner it is done the easier it is to get the cases down to small numbers.

我们将要进入闭关状态。但回想起来，我们应该更早这么做。这件事做得越及时，就越容易使病例数控制在很低的水平。

How is the economy likely to recover after all of this in your opinion?

在您看来，疫情结束后经济会恢复吗？

Yes eventually. The economic impact of the “shut down” will be large but if it is done well (including the testing piece which I keep mentioning) eventually we can open back up.

最终会的。“闭关”对经济的影响将是巨大的，但如果做得好（包括我一直提到的检测环节），那么我们最终将会回复正轨。

What do you see as the long-term strategy for fighting this pandemic and do you feel like it will adequately prepare us for the next?

您认为应对这场大流行病的长期战略是什么？经此一战，能让我们为下一次疫情做好充分的准备吗？

I think that after this is under control that Governments and others will invest heavily in being ready for the next one. This will take global cooperation particularly to help the developing countries who will be hurt the most. A good example is the need to test therapeutics wherever the disease is to help the whole world. The Virus doesn't respect national boundaries.

我认为，在这一切得到控制之后，各国政府和其他组织都将大举投资，为下一次危机做好准备。对于帮助受害最严重的发展中国家而言，全球合作尤为重要。一个很好的例子就是，无论疾病发生在哪里，都需要测试治疗方法来帮到全世界。因为病毒，不分国界。