周蕴仪：翻修经济引擎之道

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周蕴仪：翻修经济引擎之道

周蕴仪 2013-11-26 天之聪教育 976次

原文：

Ways to overhaul the engine

In an ideal world America would commit itself now to the medium-term tax reforms and spending cuts needed to get a grip on the budget, while leaving room to keep fiscal policy loose for the moment. But in febrile, partisan Washington that is a pipe-dream. Today’s goals can only be more modest: to nurture the weak economy, minimize uncertainty and prepare the ground for tomorrow’s fiscal debate. To that end, Congress ought to extend all the Bush tax cuts until 2013. Then they should all expire—prompting a serious fiscal overhaul, at a time when the economy is stronger.

A broader set of policies could help to work off the hangover faster. One priority is to encourage more write-downs of mortgage debt. Almost a quarter of all Americans with mortgages owe more than their houses are worth. Until that changes the vicious cycle of rising foreclosures and falling prices will continue. There are plenty of ideas on offer, from changing the bankruptcy law so that judges can restructure mortgage debt to empowering special trustees to write down loans. They all have drawbacks, but a fetid pool of underwater mortgages will, much like Japan’s loans to zombie firms, corrode the financial system and harm the recovery.

Cleaning up the housing market would help cut America’s unemployment rate, by making it easier for people to move to where jobs are. But more must be done to stop high joblessness becoming entrenched. Payroll-tax cuts and credits to reduce the cost of hiring would help. (The health-care reform, alas, does the opposite, at least for small businesses.) Politicians will also have to think harder about training schemes, because some workers lack the skills that new jobs require.

Americans are used to great distances. The sooner they, and their politicians, accept that the road to recovery will be a long one, the faster they will get there.

译文：周蕴仪译

翻修经济引擎之道

     理想方案，是致力于中期税改，并削减开支，以控制预算；与此同时，预留暂时放松财政政策的空间。可惜，美国政坛党派交锋、硝烟弥漫，实施理想对策简直是异想天开。唯今之计，只能设定比较保守的目标：继续扶助虚弱经济复苏，尽量减少不确定因素，为日后财政辩论做好准备。为此，国会应该把布什的全部减税措施延至2013年；届时，所有减税优惠将一齐到期。到那时候，经济底盘更加牢固，政府可对财税政策进行大修。

     政策配套越全面，会越快消除衰退后遗症。重点之一是鼓励银行减记抵押贷款债务。美国约四分之一的按揭房产，是贷款余额高于房产市值的“溺水屋”。银行如不实行资产减值，止赎案例上升和房价下跌的恶性循环将交替持续。可供借鉴的对策其实不少，比如，通过修订破产法，赋权法官重组抵押债务，或政府授权特别受托人，由特别受托人冲减债务账面价值等。尽管这些方案美中不足，但若任其自然，势必重蹈日本政府当年巨资搭救“僵尸企业”的覆辙：臭甚的溺水僵尸会吸走金融体系的血液，破坏经济复苏的进程。

     清理房地产市场可促进就业迁移，从而降低失业率。然单凭此举远不足够。要避免高失业率变成顽疾，则需要采取更多措施，比如，实施薪工税抵减，以降低雇佣成本。（医改的效果则相反；至少小企业因医改而增加成本。）有些工人转岗缺乏必要技能，政府还需深入思考就业培训方案。

    复苏路漫漫，但美国民众早已习惯长途跋涉。关键是接受路途遥远的事实。美国民众和政界越早接受这事实，便越快走完复苏路。

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来源：周蕴仪博客http://blog.sina.com.cn/chowwanee