国新办 2021-05-11 887次
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. The main data of the Seventh National Population Census has recently been aggregated. At today's press conference, we have invited Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the Leading Group of the State Council for the Seventh National Population Census and commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS); Li Xiaochao, director of the Office of the Leading Group of the State Council for the Seventh National Population Census and deputy commissioner of the NBS; Zeng Yuping, deputy director of the Office of the Leading Group of the State Council for the Seventh National Population Census and chief methodologist of the NBS; and Zhang Yi, deputy director of the Office of the Leading Group of the State Council for the Seventh National Population Census and director general of the Department of Population and Employment Statistics of the NBS, to attend. They will brief you on the main data and relevant issues, and also field questions.
First of all, I will give the floor to Mr. Ning to introduce the situation.
Under the strong leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, in line with the coordinated decisions and arrangements made by the Leading Group of the State Council for the Seventh National Population Census, with the meticulous organization and cooperative advancement of all regions and relevant government departments, the concerted efforts and dedication of all census staff as well as the joint and active participation of hundreds of millions of census respondents, the field enumeration and aggregation of the main data of the Seventh National Population Census has been successfully completed. The aim of today's press conference is to brief you on the basic introduction and main data of the census.
First, the background.
In accordance with the Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China and the Regulations on National Population Census, China carried out its Seventh National Population Census (hereinafter referred to as the census) with 12 a.m. on Nov. 1, 2020, as the reference time. The main aim of the census is to offer a comprehensive understanding of the size, structure, distribution and other aspects of China's population, so as to provide accurate statistical information support for the improvement of China's population development strategy and policy, the formulation of social and economic development plans, and the advancement of high-quality economic development.
The CPC Central Committee and the State Council attached great importance to the census. General Secretary Xi Jinping participated in the on-site census registration and delivered an important speech. The State Council established the Leading Group for the census and held several plenary sessions and teleconferences to make relevant census arrangements. All member agencies of the Leading Group and local governments at all levels meticulously organized and made concerted efforts to implement the census, with 679,000 census agencies set up at provincial, municipal, county, township and village levels across China and more than 7 million census staff recruited. Census agencies at all levels and all census staff made active efforts to overcome the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and successfully completed the field enumeration of all households and residents.
In the census, data was reported directly in real time by fully adopting digital data collection, respondents were able to fill in and submit questionnaires by scanning a QR code themselves for the first time, and the application of administrative records and big data from electricity meters and cellphones was strengthened. As a result, the quality and efficiency of the census were improved. Publicity for the census was boosted by inviting Zhong Nanshan and Yao Ming to act as ambassadors, while its slogan "Population Census, Everyone Counts," resonated powerfully with people. The census was conducted in accordance with the law and all the requirements in the census program were carefully implemented. We established a strict quality control system and improved the census data tracing and accountability mechanism. The post enumeration survey conducted in 32,000 households across 141 counties randomly selected from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities showed that the census process was rigorous and standard, and that the census results were reliable with an undercount rate of 0.05%.
Second, main data of the census.
First, national population. The national population (Note: The national population refers to the population of the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government and servicemen of the Chinese mainland, excluding residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreigners living in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) reached 1.41178 billion, increasing by 72.06 million compared with the population of 1.33972 billion in 2010 (data of the Sixth National Population Census), up by 5.38%. The average annual growth rate was 0.53%, down by 0.04 percentage point compared with the average annual growth rate of 0.57% from 2000 to 2010. The data shows that China's population maintained a slight growth over the past decade.
Second, population by household types. Nationwide, there were 494.16 million family households with 1,292.81 million people, and 28.53 million collective households with 118.97 million people. The average size of a family household was 2.62 people, which was 0.48 lower than the 3.1 people in 2010. Family households continued to decrease in size because of increasing population mobility and the fact that young people are living separately from their parents after marriage with improved housing conditions.
Third, population by regions. The population in the eastern region accounted for 39.93% of the total, that in the central areas accounted for 25.83%, that in the western region accounted for 27.12%, and that in the northeast of China accounted for 6.98%. Compared with the data from 2010, the proportion of the population in the eastern region increased by 2.15 percentage points, that in the central areas decreased by 0.79 percentage point, that in the western region increased by 0.22 percentage point, and that in the northeast of China decreased by 1.2 percentage points. The population further congregated in economically developed regions and city clusters.
Fourth, sex composition. Among the national population, there were 723.34 million males, accounting for 51.24%, and 688.44 million females, or 48.76%. The sex ratio (males per 100 females) was 105.07, basically the same level with a slight decline compared with 2010. The sex ratio at birth was 111.3, down by 6.8 compared with 2010. The sex composition of China continued to improve.
Fifth, age composition. There were 253.38 million people in the 0-14 age group, accounting for 17.95%; 894.38 million people aged 15-59, accounting for 63.35%; and 264.02 million people aged 60 and over, accounting for 18.7% (specifically, there were 190.64 million people aged 65 and over, or 13.5%). Compared with 2010, the proportions of people in the age groups of 0-14, 15-59, and 60 and over were up by 1.35 percentage points, down by 6.79 percentage points, and up by 5.44 percentage points, respectively. The share of children rose again, proving that the adjustments to China's fertility policy have achieved positive results. Meanwhile, the further aging of the population has imposed continued pressure on the long-term balanced development of the population in the coming period.
Six, education attainment. There were 218.36 million persons with university education. Compared with 2010, the number of people with university education went up from 8,930 persons to 15,467 persons per 100,000 persons, and the average years of schooling for people aged 15 and above increased from 9.08 years to 9.91 years. The illiteracy rate dropped from 4.08% to 2.67%. The continued improvement of the educational attainment demonstrates the achievements in promoting higher education, eradicating illiteracy among young and middle-aged adults, and raising the population quality through hard efforts over the past ten years.
Seven, urban and rural population. There were 901.99 million people living in urban areas, accounting for 63.89% of the total population, and 509.79 million people living in rural areas, accounting for 36.11%. Compared with 2010, the urban population increased by 236.42 million and the rural population decreased by 164.36 million. The shareof urban population went up by14.21 percentage points. With the in-depth development of China's new industrialization, informatization, and agricultural modernization and the implementation of policies to help people who have relocated from rural to urban areas to gain permanent urban residency, China's new urbanization has been advanced steadily and historical achievements have been made in this regard over the past ten years.
Eight, floating population. The number of people who lived in places other than their household registration areas reached 492.76 million. Specifically, 116.94 million lived in places other than their household registration areas but still in the same city and the floating population numbered375.82 million. Within the floating population, 124.84 million moved to other provinces. Compared with 2010, the number of people who live in places other than their household registration areas went up by 88.52%; the population who live in places other than their household registration areas but still in the same city increased by 192.66%; and the floating population increased by 69.73%. China's continued economic and social development has facilitated population migration and mobility, the trends of which have become increasingly evident, and the size of the migrant population has further grown.
Nine, population of ethnic groups. The population of the Han ethnic group is 1,286.31 million, accounting for 91.11% of the total population, while that of the ethnic minorities number at 125.47 million, accounting for 8.89%. Compared with 2010, the population of the Han ethnic group grew by 4.93%, while that of the ethnic minorities increased by 10.26%, and the share of the ethnic minorities increased by 0.40 percentage point. The steady increase of the population of the ethnic groups fully reflected the comprehensive development of and progress for all ethnic groups under the leadership of the Communist Party of China.
The population issue has always been an issue of overall, long-term, and strategic importance in China. The Seventh National Population Census offered a good understanding of the size, structure, and distribution of China's population, accurately mapped trends in demographic changes, and provided abundant and valuable information. We are working hard to compile, analyze, and develop the census data, and will follow up with more ways to publish and share the census results. We will collaborate with relevant departments to strengthen forward-looking and strategic studies on population development. All of these efforts will make full use of the census and provide strong statistical information support to advance high-quality development, formulate targeted strategies and policies on population, and facilitate long-term and balanced population development.
On behalf of the Office of the Leading Group of the State Council for the Seventh National Population Census and the National Bureau of Statistics of China, I would like to take this opportunity to express my sincere gratitude to the census agencies at all levels and census staff who fought on the front lines.Over seven million census staff worked hard and rose to challenges with a strong sense of responsibility and initiative despite the impact of the COVID-19. They have completed the field enumeration on time and covered all houses, households, respondents, and items in each enumeration area. It is because of their work that the results of the Seventh National Population Census can stand the test of history and the people. I would also like to extend my heartfelt gratitude to all sectors of society and respondents who participated in and supported the census with a spirit of cooperation. Thanks to the 1.4 billion people who performed their census duties and provided authentic information with the ownership spirit of "Population Census, Everyone Counts," the strong cornerstone of the Seventh National Population Census of such a scale was formed. I would also like to extend our sincere gratitude to all friends from the news media involved in census promotion. Your all-around publicity inspired and encouraged the census staff, boosting their confidence and motivation, and helping the respondents to understand and thus render support and cooperation for the population census. Without your dedication and diligence, the Seventh National Population Census would not have been so successful. Thank you again!
Thank you, Mr. Ning. Now the floor is open for questions. Please identify your news outlets before asking questions.
We noticed that there are some new changes and features in the statistics released by Mr. Ning. Compared with the data of the Sixth National Population Census, what are the new changes and trends regarding the gender ratio, age composition, and educational level this time around? Could you elaborate on these aspects? Thank you.
This issue is rather significant, and I'll take your question. The population is the most fundamental and crucial national condition of a country. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has attached great importance to the issue of population, making key decisions such as gradually adjusting family planning policies and promoting long-term and balanced population development. China's population-related work has seen remarkable progress and there have been some active changes in the trends of population development. The census results released just now reflected the basic situation of China's population and demographic trends over the past ten years in a comprehensive and detailed way. In general, it can be summarized in a few sentences.
Over the past decade, China's population has continued to grow and it remains the world's most populous country. The quality of the population has steadily improved, and the educational level of the population has increased significantly. The population structure has changed with the gender ratio improving. Meanwhile, the age composition of the population showed an increase in the amount of people in the age groups of 0 to 14, and 60 and above and a drop in the amount of people between 15 and 59. The trend of population movement and concentration has also become more obvious, and the level of urbanization has continued to rise. There are six characteristics as follows:
First, in terms of total population, although the growth rate of China's total population is slowing down, it still maintains a steady growth. In 2020, China's population reached 1.41 billion, accounting for 18% of the world's population, meaning China remains the most populous country in the world. Over the past decade, China's population has jumped from 1.3 billion in 2010 to 1.4 billion in 2020 with an increase of 72.06 million, up by 5.38% compared with 2010. The average annual growth rate was 0.53%, slightly down from that of 0.57% from 2000 to 2010.
Second, in terms of population quality, the educational level of the Chinese population has increased significantly, and the quality of the population has been improving. The average number of years of education received by people aged 15 and above has increased from 9.08 years in 2010 to 9.91 years. The average number of years of education received by the working age population, between 16 and 59, has grown from 9.67 years in 2010 to 10.75 years. The illiteracy rate dropped from 4.08% in 2010 to 2.67%.
Third, in terms of gender composition, the sex ratio at birth has steadily declined and the gender structure has improved. According to the census, the sex ratio was 105.1, basically the same level and slightly lower than that of 105.2 in 2010. The sex ratio at birth was 111.3 in 2020, down by 6.8 compared with that in 2010, gradually converging to a normal level.
Fourth, in terms of age composition, the number of children increased and their proportion rose, with the number of children aged 0-14 increasing by 30.92 million compared to 2010 and their proportion rising by 1.35 percentage points. The number of births rebounded as a result of decisions and policy measures such as the "selective two-child" policy and the "universal two-child" policy. The birth rate of second children saw a significant increase, and the proportion of babies born as a second child rose from 30% in 2013 to 50% in 2017.
Fifth, in terms of population migration and mobility, population movement remains active and the agglomeration effect of the population has become increasingly evident. The census results showed that it has become common for people to live in places other than their household registration areas. The number of people who lived in places other than their household registration areas reached 493 million in 2020, accounting for 35% of the Chinese population. Specifically, the floating population numbered 376 million, up nearly 70% over the past decade. In terms of the flow direction, the population continues to flock to areas along the Yangtze River, coastal areas and inland urban areas. The population of major city clusters such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Chengdu-Chongqing city cluster is growing rapidly and the degree of agglomeration is increasing.
Sixth, in terms of the urban-rural structure of the population, China's permanent urban population continues to increase, and its share has further improved. Over the past decade, the urban population has increased by 236 million, and the share of urban population grew by 14.21 percentage points, a 0.75 percentage point increase compared with the growth of the last decade. As the census showed, we have accelerated the implementation of the new people-centered and quality-oriented urbanization strategy and made notable progress in helping people who have relocated from rural to urban areas to gain permanent urban residency.
The major changes in China's population in the past decade reflect the historical progress of China's economic, social and population development. They reflect the practical progress of promoting high-quality development and securing a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. They also comply with the trend of population development and the objective laws of the interaction between the population, the economy and society. Moreover, the census data also reflects some structural contradictions in the development of China's population, such as a decrease in the population of working age people and women of childbearing age, an aging population, a decrease in the total fertility rate, and the low number of births.
We need to look at the impact of demographic changes on the economy and society dialectically. First, China's basic national conditions of a large population base and a large population have not changed; the advantages of a super-sized domestic market will persist for a long time; and the population and resources and environment will remain in a tight balance. At the same time, population growth is slowing down, and measures are needed to promote long-term balanced population development. Second, the labor resources are still abundant and the demographic dividend continue to exist, while the working age population decreases slowly year by year. The economic structure and technological development need to be adjusted and adapted. Third, the population quality is improving. New advantages of talent dividends will gradually emerge. College students are facing increasing employment pressure. Industrial transformation and upgrading needs to be accelerated. Fourthly, the proportion of children and the elderly population are both increasing. The increase in the proportion of children reflects the achievement of adjusting the family planning policies and highlights the importance of the issue regarding the elderly and children. We need to improve family planning policies and the population service system such as parenting. The proportion of the elderly population is rising rapidly and ageing has become the basic national condition in China for some time to come. The increase in the elderly population will be conducive to passing on wisdoms and traditions and also bring expanded demands. Fifth, the accelerated agglomeration of the population reflects changes in the trends of urbanization and economic agglomeration, and makes new requirements for improving the quality of urbanization and promoting regional coordinated development. Thank you.
China News Service:
China's seventh national population census can be called the largest census project in the world.How was such a large-scale census organized and conducted? Could you summarize some of its features? Thank you.
Thank you for your interest in China's population census. The 2020 census was the seventh national population census since the founding of the People's Republic of China, and also the world's largest. It was a major national survey on China's conditions after having faced the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic. In the past year or so, with the concerted efforts of the Chinese people, we have successfully completed the census. The achievements are attributed to the following aspects.
First, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council attached much importance to the census and had given instructions as to how we should best conduct our work.General Secretary Xi Jinpingand Premier Li Keqiang as well as other Party and state leaders signed up for the enumeration as ordinary citizens. The State Council established the Leading Group of the State Council for the Seventh National Population Census with Vice Premier Han Zheng as its head to coordinate the census. Different localities and departments had worked in synergy and offered support to each other under national centralized leadership, with departments at all levels assuming clear duties and carrying out specific jobs. Approximately 679,00 census agencies were set up at provincial, municipal, county, township, and village levels across China, and more than 7 million census staff were recruited. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council attached much importance to our work. Different localities and relevant departments made meticulous organization and cooperative advancements on the census. All of these factors guaranteed the success of the 2020 census.
Second, we made meticulous plans, including timelines and road maps for the census. On top of multiple general pilot projects and several specialized pilot projects, and after having solicited opinions from experts and people from various professional circles, we produced an outline for the census as well as seven implementing guidelines. These helped us to specify what, how, and in what order the census should be carried out as well as the tasks and requirements for the census work, which provided the know-how for staff to complete their work.
Third, we enriched the content of the census so that its findings can be more valuable. We collected the respondents' ID numbers for the first time, which provided basic information for cross-checking and verification. We also added more data about senior populations to better understand China's aging population.
Fourth, we adopted new ways and tools to increase the efficiency and quality of our census. We had, for the first time, adopted digital data collection so that respondents could fill out and submit the questionnaire and the system could record their information in real-time. Such a collection method was not used widely but involved a significant amount of data. To improve the administrative documentation and the application of big data, we fully adopted the use of the internet, cloud technologies, cloud services, and cloud applications to complete data processing. We carried out online centralized management for the 7 million-odd census staff so that we could supervise their work in real-time.
Fifth, we made sure that no one individual was double-counted or miscounted. Under certain criteria, we divided our census targets into several groups and made sure that there were no overlapping in each group. We numbered each household within each group and had the census staff collect information at each household. At the same time, we improved the selection, training, and management of the staff. Before their on-site registration, we also cleaned up any illegal hukous (China's household registration system) and conducted a pre-assessment of the conditions to lay a foundation for the work that was to follow.
Sixth, we put a lot of effort into publicity and mobilization, which helped to increase people's initiative to participate in the census. We rolled out publicity plans and arranged publicity work across every stage of the census. We filmed and broadcast promotional videos and public service advertisements and organized publicity activities through various channels and forms to raise people's awareness and enthusiasm for the census. With the slogan --"Population Census, Everyone Counts" taking root, various circles and the public have actively participated in and supported the census. Thank you.
Southern Metropolis Daily:
What do we make of the slowdown in China's population growth during the decade from 2010 to 2020, as seen in the main results of the census? Some experts predict that China's population will peak at 1.45 billion in 2027. Does the slowdown in growth mean that the year of zero population growth will come earlier? Thank you.
Allow me to answer this question. This is a question of trend analysis. The census data shows that China's population growth has slowed down, with an average annual growth rate of 0.53% over the past decade, which is a 0.04 percentage point decrease from the previous decade. This trend is the result of multiple factors. The main reasons are the continued decline in the number of women of childbearing age, especially those in their prime, the delay of people's chosen time for having a child, and the increase in the cost of childbirth and raising a family. All of these factors have led to a tightening of the birth population size. This is the objective result of China's economic development, especially industrialization and urbanization, which has reached a certain stage, and it is also a common problem faced by the world, especially developed countries. According to the results of this census, China's population is still the largest in the world, and has continued to grow, with an increase of 72.06 million over the past ten years. When compared to the increase of 73.9 million in the previous decade, the scale of growth is slightly decreased, but basically the same. There are mainly three factors that matter:
First, China's population has maintained a certain level of inertial growth. China has a large population base. At present, there are more than 300 million women at childbearing age, and we are able to sustain around 10 million births every year.
Second, the adjustment of the fertility policy has achieved positive results. The number of births has rebounded rapidly since the implementation of the two-child policy for couples where either the husband or wife is from a single-child family, and the universal two-child policy. According to the census data, the number of children aged 0-14 reached 253.38 million in 2020, 30.92 million more than in 2010, and the proportion of children rose by 1.35 percentage points.
Third, the life expectancy of the population has continued to increase. This is because of rapid economic and social development, continuous improvements in living standards and a significant improvement in medical and health conditions. The obvious improvement in the health conditions of the people have led to the fact that the annual number of deaths in China has been less than the number of births, and the total population has maintained its growth trend. These positive factors of population growth will continue to play a role for some time to come.
Judging from the trend of China's population development and changes in recent years, we can see that the population growth rate will continue to slow down in the future. At the same time, population growth is also affected by economic and social factors such as the age structure of the population, people's fertility choices, fertility policies, fertility costs, and public health. China's population will reach its peak in the future, but the exact timing is uncertain, and it is expected that the total population of China will remain above 1.4 billion for some time in the future. The results of the census also show that China's working age population group, aged from 16 to 59, is about 880 million, so the labor force is still abundant. Through this census, the average age of the Chinese population is 38.8 years old. On the whole, we are still a young and vigorous country. The United States recently released its latest census data, and their average age is 38, which is about the same as ours.
Next, we should continue to pay attention to changes in population growth and actively respond to the various risks and challenges that may arise in demographic development. Thank you.
Recently, some people have questioned the quality of the census data. You just said that the undercount rate of the Seventh National Population Census was only 0.05%, so does this mean that this is a high-quality census? In addition, the results of the census came out relatively slowly. A spokesperson for the NBS previously said that this is because the seventh census released more detailed information than the information released in the sixth census. Can you tell us more about what information has been added? Thank you.
First of all, thank you for your questions. You have asked two questions, one on data quality and the other on data dissemination. Regarding the issue of data quality, we often say that data quality is the lifeline of statistical work. Similarly, the quality of census data is also the lifeline of our census work. In order to obtain high-quality census data, we adhered to conducting the census in accordance with the law, and carried out extensive publicity and mobilization, while focusing on the following measures.
First, we scientifically designed the census plan. This census has drawn on the experience of past censuses, including the experience of the population census, the economic census and the agricultural census. Meanwhile, we extensively solicited opinions from various parties, including experts and scholars, and all sectors of society. We organized and carried out six special pilots and one comprehensive pilot nationwide. In accordance with the principles of science and feasibility, demand and capability, inheritance and innovation, we formulated the Program for the Seventh National Population Census and seven implementation rules to ensure that our census program is scientific and operable.
Second, enumeration was meticulously organized. Before the start of on-site registration, census agencies at all levels carefully selected census staff and strengthened their pre-job training. We made efforts to detect any illegal hukous (China's household registration system), divided census blocks and conducted a pre-assessment of the conditions and other preparation work in a solid manner. More than seven million census workers nationwide strictly implemented the census program, which also coincided with the COVID-19 prevention and control period. We earnestly ensured we implemented the various requirements for epidemic prevention and control. We have succeeded in fulfilling the task of the field enumeration of the whole nation.
Third, we made full use of information technology. In this census, we made use of information technology to actively explore and innovate on census methods. For the first time, we had access to digital devices and our staff could directly register and report the data online; for the first time, census subjects filled in their own reports via the internet; for the first time, we could compare and verify the census data via administrative records and big data; for the first time, data processing was centrally deployed nationwide, using internet cloud technology, cloud services and cloud applications to complete data processing; and for the first time, we collectively guided more than seven million census workers online.
Fourth, we ensured the quality of the whole survey process. In accordance with the provisions of the census plan, census agencies at all levels established quality-control systems, strictly conducted the work according to the quality-control requirements, and meticulously carried out quality checks to ensure the quality of work at each stage of the census. Meanwhile, we established a traceability and accountability mechanism for census data and seriously investigated fraud practices at every local agency.
After we finished the work, the census office of the State Council, in accordance with international practice, organized nearly one thousand professional spot-check personnel for random quality checks on 32,000 households among 141 counties from China's 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and employed social supervisors for supervision during the whole process. The result showed that, the amount of the population that failed to register was 0.05%, lower than the international standard of 3%, demonstrating the data is true and credible and that it was a high-quality census. That's all for the first question.
The second question concerns the timing of the release of census data. The population census work is a huge systematic project involving many links and wide aspects. In order to coordinate the arrangements and ensure the smooth connection of all links, we formulated the schedule before the implementation of the census. The original schedule for the release of the census bulletins was a planned one, but in view of the strong demand for the census results from all sectors of society, we enriched the content of the release by adding a large amount of data onpopulation distribution and regions, so it took more time to prepare the data. Today, we are releasing eight bulletins, which are richer and more detailed than the previous censuses, with each set of data verified and exact. In addition, we understand that other countries also release their census one year after field enumeration. For example, the United States conducted its population census on April 1, 2020, and their results were released on April 26, 2021, almost one year later.
In the next step, we will further share, explore and utilize the census results, and in the future, we will successively edit and publish more detailed census summary materials to meet the needs of all parts of society. We also welcome you to use it. At the same time, we will use the micro data laboratory to provide desensitization micro data from the census for relevant research institutions, experts and scholars to carry out analysis and research, so as to better utilize the census data. Thank you all.
Some experts said that the fifth and sixth national population censuses underwent a period of data adjustment after the censuses were completed. Were any adjustments made after this latest census such as adjusting for the undercount rate? Thank you.
Thank you for your question. We all know that the population census is an overall survey. The seventh census covered all respondents based on a uniform standard at a uniform time. Data from this census was reported directly in real-time through the complete adoption of digital data collection, and the results can be collected and calculated directly after auditing. No data adjustment was needed afterward.
The post-enumeration survey showed that the undercount rate of the seventh census was 0.05%. According to the United Nations census recommendations, the undercount rate can or can not be added to the total population.Some countries may add it while others may not. The Chinese national population information just released is a directly summary of the population registered in the census and does not include those missed within the undercount rate. Thank you.
The Poster News APP:
China's aging population is always an issue that concerns the public. According to census findings, how is the aging population situation in our country? Given the increasing burden of elderly care in families and society, how should we best optimize the population structure and solve the problem of our aging population? When will the policy for extending the retirement age be implemented? Thank you.
The census shows that people in the age bracket of 60 and above accounts for 18.70% of China's total population, and people aged 65 or above account for 13.50%. The aging population in our country has the following characteristics.
First, the aging population is huge. There are 264.02 million people in the age bracket of 60 and above, including 190.64 million people aged 65 and above. In China's 31 provinces, 16 provinces have more than 5 million people in the age bracket of 65 and above, while six provinces have more than 10 million people aged above 65.
Second, the aging population is rapidly growing. From 2010 to 2020, the proportion of people in the age bracket of 60 and above increased by 5.44 percentage points, while people in the age bracket of 65 and above increased by 4.63 percentage points. The ascensional range rose by 2.51 percentage points and 2.72 percentage points, respectively, compared to the last decade.
Third, the rural-urban divide between the aging population is obvious. The proportion of people aged 60 and above and people aged 65 and above in rural areas were 23.81% and 17.72% respectively, 7.99 and 6.61 percentage points higher than that of in urban areas. Besides economic and social reasons, rural-urban differences in the aging population are also closely related to migration.
Fourth, the quality of life among aging people rose continuously. The number of people aged 60 and above with high school or university education reached 36.69 million, an increase of 20.85 million compared to 2010. That proportion accounts for 13.90% of the total population in the age bracket of 60 and above, up by 4.98 percentage points compared with a decade ago. Over the past ten years, life expectancy also increased continuously. In 2020, there were 35.8 million people in the age bracket of 80 and above, accounting for 2.54% of the total population, which increased by 0.98 percentage point to 14.85 million compared to 2010.
The aging population is an important trend in social development, and it will be China's basic national condition for a long time in the future, which brings both challenges and opportunities. For example, from the perspective of challenges, the aging population will reduce the supply of labor, increase the burdens on families concerning elderly care, and raise the pressure to provide basic public services. At the same time, the aging population has promoted the development of the "silver-hair" economy, expanded products and services consumption for elderly people, and helped boost technical advances. Moreover, among China's population aged 60 and above, people in the age bracket of 60 to 69 account for 55.83% of the total elderly population. Thanks to their advantages in knowledge, experience, skills, and good physical conditions, they have great potential to contribute their remaining energy to society.
The fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee proposed plans for specific measures to address the aging population as a major national strategy now and for some time in the future. Next, we will develop and make good use of the census data and carry out serious studies and in-depth analysis to provide statistical support for policy-making.
Beijing Youth Daily:
Recently, the issue of a consistently decreasing working-age population in the northeast of China has drawn wide attention.The census data shows that the population in the northeast of China indeed declined. What is the reason for this decrease? What problems will that cause? How should we respond to it? Thank you.
People are concerned about the issues facing northeast China. From the census data, changes in the population in northeast China over the past ten years have the following features. First, the total population is still large but there was a decline. In 2020, the total population of northeast China's three provinces was 98.51 million, approaching 100 million — still quite large but decreasing by 11.01 million compared to ten years ago. Second, the birth gender ratio in the northeast of China was 106.3, which is lower than the national average but still within the normal range. Third, the aging population is serious. In northeast China, people aged 65 or above accounted for 16.39% of the total population, up 7.26 percentage points from 2010 and higher than the national average. Fourth, talent is ample. The population with university education and above accounted for 16.75% of the total population. The average number of years of education received by people aged above 15 was 10.16 years. The two indicators for the level of education in northeast China were above the national average. Fifth, the foundation for the area's development is solid. Permanent urban residents in northeast China make up 67.71% of the population, ranking in an upper bracket nationwide.
Factors regarding the natural and geographical environment, fertility rate, and social-economic development have led to a population decrease in northeast China. The winter is long and cold in the northeast of China, which is located at high latitude. Some people from the area have moved to warmer areas in the south, which is a common characteristic of population migration in many countries around the world such as those in Europe, and America. In addition, affected by factors like fertility values and behaviors, the natural population growth rate in northeast China has been lower than the national average for a long time. Furthermore, the northeast of China is undergoing a crucial period of structural adjustment. Diversified opportunities for development and career prospects in coastal developed cities and provinces are a magnet for people from other areas, including the northeast of China.
Meanwhile, we should note that economic development in the northeast of China is resilient and full of potential. There is a range of strategic industries that are vital to national security and are the lifeblood of the national economy. The northeast of China has technological talents and a reasonably solid foundation in modern agriculture, equipment manufacturing, transportation infrastructure, and so on. The number of people who have received higher education in northeast China was 16.50 million. Meanwhile, grain output accounted for more than one-fifth of the nation's total. The region has several key national enterprises such as Ansteel, Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited, China FAW Group Corporation, Harbin Electric Corporation, etc. Recently, the region has been home to the development of a group of emerging high-tech enterprises. Favorable conditions for the revitalization of northeast China abound. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council have attached importance to the region's revitalization and have released a series of major measures to promote the revitalization of talent and the high-quality development of China's old industrial bases, creating a good environment for the development of real economy and industrial innovation. A new round of plans for revitalization with a focus on structural adjustment will surely bring about new demographic changes in the region.
For the next step, we will enhance research regarding population issues in the northeast of China, address the challenges brought by population changes, and seize opportunities in these changes to better serve the economic and social development of northeast China.Thank you.
What effect will the gradually declining working-age population and the expanding aging population have on economic development in the long run? What measures will be taken to tackle those problems? Will it be possible to relax policies to encourage fertility? Thank you.
This question is about the working-age population. I will invite Mr. Zeng to answer this question.
Thank you for your question. As for the issue of the aging population, Mr. Ning introduced it in detail just now. I will not repeat those points.
Concerning the working-age population, first, in terms of the total number, the working-age population (people aged between 16 and 59) decreased by more than 40 million compared to 2010, when China conducted the sixth national population census. But we should remember that the total population of working-age people, 880 million, is still large, and labor resources are still abundant. Dividends in the demographic still exist, which provides an important support for sustained and healthy social and economic development.
Second, the quality of the working-age population has been remarkably improved. As the census data shows, the average number of years of education received by the population aged above 15 was 9.91, up 0.83 years from 2010. Specifically, the average number of years of education received by the population aged from 16 to 59 reached 10.75 years, up 1.08 years from 9.67 years in 2010. Meanwhile, among the working-age population, people with high school education and above reached 385 million, accounting for 43.79% of the total, up 12.8 percentage points from 2010. Finally, people with university education and above accounted for 23.61%, up 11.27 percentage points from 2010.
Third, as the social and economic development accelerates, the coverage of medical service systems has expanded, people's overall physical health has improved and life expectancy has been extended. The improvement in people's health conditions has greatly bolstered labor resources, which underpins the social and economic development.
The decrease in the working-age population should be viewed comprehensively and objectively. First, despite the shrinking working-age population, the sheer size of China's labor resources remains relatively large.On the whole, China is still facing great employment pressure. Second, although the working-age population is gradually decreasing, the high-quality development of the economy means that the requirements for employees' skills will increase. Improving the skills of workers and solving the structural problem of the mismatch between job requirements and candidates' skills will become the main issue facing employment. Third, as the quality of the population improves, the demographic dividend will gradually turn into a talent dividend, and the advantages of population resources will be effectively brought into play. This will further promote the transformation of the economic development pattern, the upgrading of the industrial structure, the increase of total factor productivity, and the sustained, coordinated, and healthy development of the population, economy, and society. Thank you.
In the past decade, China's urbanization rate has risen rapidly but the percentage of registered urban residents is much lower than that of permanent urban residents. What are the specific reasons for this? The census results show that China has experienced a significant surge in its floating population over the past decade. How do we view this phenomenon and what impact will it have on the reform of the household registration system? Thank you.
According to the census, China's urbanization rate has indeed increased rapidly over the past 10 years. The share of the urban population went up by 14.21 percentage points, as Mr. Ning introduced just now. The floating population has also increased considerably, which reflects the results of sustained economic and social development as well as the effective allocation of human and talent resources. At the same time, it is also the result of a strengthened economic and social vitality in some regions and cities, which is consistent with the development trends of other countries around the world. It should be pointed out that China's urbanization rate is currently in the upper-middle-range compared to the world's average, which is similar to China's upper-middle average per capita GDP compared to the rest of the world. It is expected that with the constant development of China's economy and society and the continuous advancement of various reform measures to promote urbanization, the urbanization rate will continue to increase.
In addition, the census data further reveals that while the urbanization rate and floating population are increasing, these two aspects are also displaying some other characteristics.
First, the proportion of floating population flowing into urban areas is still rising. In 2020, the floating population flowing into urban areas reached 331 million, accounting for 88.12% of the total floating population, up 3.85 percentage points from 2010. Among them, 249 million people moved from rural to urban areas, 106 million more than in 2010—an increase of over 100 million people in a decade.
Second, the proportion of floating population flowing into areas with a high urbanization rate remains relatively high. The eastern region absorbed an interprovincial floating population of 91.81 million, accounting for 73.54% of the total floating population, while the central region absorbed 9.55 million, or 7.65%, the western region took 18.8 million, or 15.06%, and the northeast region took 4.68 million, or 3.75%.
Third, the floating population within the provinces, that is to say, the population flow within a short distance, is growing even faster. The floating population within the provinces totaled 251 million, an increase of 116 million or 85.70% since 2010. The interprovincial floating population amounted to 125 million, an increase of 38.96 million or 45.37% since 2010. This data shows that the floating population within provinces is growing much faster than the interprovincial floating population. The proportion of the floating population within the provinces increased from 61.15% in 2010 to 66.78% of the total floating population, up 5.63 percentage points. About two-thirds of the floating population chose to move just a short distance within the province.
Regarding the difference between the percentage of registered urban residents and the percentage of permanent urban residents, first we should understand that the former has also increased markedly in the past decade. By the end of 2020, China had achieved its goal of granting permanent urban residency to 100 million people living in urban areas without urban household registration. Meanwhile, we should also be aware that this difference is mainly reflected in migrant workers. Restricted by various security conditions and systems, it may still take some time for this difference to be reduced or even eliminated. Of course, some registered rural residents are less willing to gain permanent urban residency. Especially after the rural vitalization and poverty alleviation campaigns yielded results, some people want to stay in the countryside. Therefore, the reluctance of some registered rural residents to leave the countryside also explains why there is a difference.
We believe that with the sustained high-quality development of China's economy and society as well as the continuous advancement of a new type of urbanization, the country's urbanization will develop more scientifically and rationally, its population will flow in a more orderly and reasonable way, and a new situation for the coordinated development of the economy, society, and population mobility will be created.Thank you.
Due to the time limit, we will have the last question.
Red Star News:
My question is, what changes have occurred in the fertility rate of women and number of births in China since the comprehensive two-child policy was adopted? Is the current lack of fertility willingness among the population leading to an almost alarming low fertility rate? Will China adjust its population policies, especially family planning policies, based on the findings of the census?
I will take these questions. People are concerned about fertility issues and we have gained a lot of information in this regard through the census. I must first note that the two-child policy has achieved positive results and the seventh national census has found the following characteristics for new births.
First, the number of new births has been large. New births increased significantly in 2016 and 2017 to over 18 million and 17 million, respectively. This was up by more than two million and one million respectively in comparison with the number before the two-child policy was adopted. Although the number has fallen since 2018, it still reached 12 million in 2020, according to the preliminary findings of the census.
Second, the proportion of second children was high. Among the newborns between 2014 and 2017, the proportion of second children rose markedly from around 30% [M1] in 2013 to around 50% in 2017. Although the proportion has since declined, it has remained above 40%. Adjustments in the fertility policy have increased the number of newborn second children by over 10 million.
Third, the fertility rate has declined. China's total fertility rate was 1.3 in 2020, which was a low level, according to the census. This was largely caused by a continuous fall in the number of women of childbearing age and a gradual wearing-off of the effect of the two-child policy. In 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic, which added uncertainties to life and worries about in-hospital childbearing, further dampened people's willingness to have children. We should come to realize that the low fertility level is also a result of economic and social development. It is not only affected by policy factors but also by economic, social and cultural factors with impact from the latter gradually gaining. In addition, we must be aware that with economic and social development, especially when industrialization and modernization have changed people's views on birth, a low fertility rate is a common problem in most developed countries and will also become a practical issue for China.
The fertility concerns you just mentioned were also raised by the Reuters journalist in his question a moment ago. The fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has clearly asked for improvement in the fertility policy to make it more inclusive. The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development, which was adopted at the National People's Congress, also made it clear that China will pursue an appropriate fertility rate and lessen family spending on child bearing, raising and education, to further release the potential of the fertility policy. According to a survey by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of children that women of childbearing age are willing to have is 1.8, so as long as the proper supportive measures are put in place, the real fertility potential will be brought out. Thank you.
Today's press conference ends here. Thank you to all the speakers and thank you to all of our friends from the media.
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