分析：美国页岩油革命对OPEC的影响
US shale oil boom underscores Opec financial divide
Ask two Opec oil ministers about the US shale oil revolution and you are likely to get opposing answers.
如果你问石油输出国组织(OPEC)中某两位石油部长对美国页岩油革命的看法，你可能会得到截然不同的答案。
In a speech last month, Ali Naimi, Saudi oil minister and de facto leader of the producers’ cartel, went out of his way to welcome increased US oil production. But barely a fortnight later, Diezani Alison-Madueke, his Nigerian counterpart, said the shale oil revolution was “one of the most serious threats” for the group.
在近期的一次讲话中，沙特石油部长阿里•纳伊米(Ali Naimi)郑重表示，乐见美国石油产量增加。纳伊米也是OPEC这个产油国卡特尔组织事实上的领导。不到两周之后，尼日利亚石油部长马杜艾克(Diezani Alison-Madueke)却表示，页岩油革命对于OPEC来说是“最严重的威胁之一”。
This week as Opec, which produces roughly 40 per cent of oil, gathers for its twice-yearly meeting in Vienna, to discuss the health of the oil market. “There is a divide in Opec between the relatively comfortable Gulf producers and the rest,” says Neil Atkinson, director of consultancy Datamonitor Energy.
近日，OPEC在维也纳召开半年一次的会议，讨论石油市场形势。该组织的石油产量大约占全球产量的40%。咨询机构Datamonitor Energy的尼尔•阿特金森(Neil Atkinson)说：“在OPEC中，相对富有的海湾产油国和其他国家之间存在差异。”
The US, the world’s largest oil consumer, imported less than 3m barrels of Opec crude oil a day in February, the first time since January 1994, according to US government data. But, as the shale boom shrinks the US import market, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are suffering less than others in Opec, in particular Nigeria and Angola.
美国政府数据显示，2月份，世界最大石油消费国美国平均每天从OPEC进口的原油还不到300万桶，创下1994年1月以来的最低值。页岩油的繁荣导致美国进口市场萎缩，但相对于尼日利亚和安哥拉等其他OPEC成员国来说，沙特等海湾国家遭受的冲击较小。
While US refiners are replacing low-sulphur west African crude oil with similar high-quality US shale oil, there is no obvious replacement for high-sulphur, viscous Saudi crude. Saudi Arabia also has the advantage of a physical presence in the US. As the co-owner of several large refineries, it has some influence.
虽然美国炼油厂正在以类似的优质美国页岩油代替西非低硫原油，但沙特的高硫黏性原油还没有明显的替代品。沙特还有一个优势就是，它切实地在美国落了脚——作为几家大型炼油厂的共同所有者，沙特具有一定的影响力。
The result? Saudi Arabian oil exports to the US last year averaged 1.35m b/d, the highest since the financial crisis of 2008. Meanwhile Nigeria and Angola exported a combined 0.6m b/d to the US in 2012, the lowest in 25 years.
结果是什么呢？去年，沙特对美国日均出口石油135万桶，为2008年金融危机以来的最高水平，而尼日利亚和安哥拉对美国的日均出口量之和仅为60万桶，为25年来的最低水平。
Mr Naimi, on his arrival in Vienna this week, said the current environment was the “best” for the oil market. “Supplies are plentiful, demand is great,” he said.
纳伊米在抵达维也纳出席会议的时候表示，当前环境对于石油市场来说是“最好”的。他说：“供应非常充足，需求也很强劲。”
The uneven impact of the shale revolution is intensifying an existing financial divide within Opec that has in the past soured relations between the haves and have-nots of the group.
页岩革命带来的不同影响正在加剧OPEC内部成员国在经济上的差距，而这种差距在过去已经导致这个组织中富国和穷国关系的恶化。
While Gulf states with large financial reserves have some capacity to withstand lower oil prices, countries such as Nigeria rely on strong oil revenues to make ends meet. PFC Energy, a Washington-based consultancy, estimates that Nigeria needs an average of $87 per barrel to fund its import bill in 2013. Angola needs $94 per barrel. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, needs just under $70 a barrel, while Brent, the global oil benchmark, is hovering a little above $100 a barrel.
有着巨额财政储备的海湾国家有一定能力应对油价下跌，但诸如尼日利亚这类国家就依赖大量的石油收入来取得收支平衡。华盛顿咨询机构PFC Energy估测，2013年，在平均油价为每桶87美元的情况下，尼日利亚的石油收入能够覆盖其进口支出。对安哥拉来说，达到收支平衡则需要油价维持在每桶94美元。相比之下，沙特则只需要每桶70美元。目前国际基准油价——布伦特原油价格徘徊在略高于每桶100美元的水平。
Ms Alison-Madueke warned that US shale oil could reduce African oil revenues by 25 per cent, crippling the economies of several Opec members.
马杜艾克警告，美国页岩油可能会导致非洲石油收入减少25%，从而严重削弱若干OPEC成员国的经济。
With demand for oil from fast-growing Asian economies still increasing, the problem for Nigeria and Angola is not so much finding buyers, but agreeing sale terms. US and European refineries tended to buy west African oil in long-term deals but, as those contracts expire, more oil will have to be sold on the spot market, where it will have to be priced competitively against other supplies of crude.
由于快速增长的亚洲经济体的石油需求在继续扩大，尼日利亚和安哥拉的主要问题不是寻找买家，而是达成销售协议。美国和欧洲炼油厂过去倾向于通过长期协议购买西非石油，但随着这些协议的到期，更多的石油将在现货市场销售，因而在定价方面必须与其他地方的原油相竞争。
Miswin Mahesh, oil analyst at Barclays, says Indian refiners are bargain hunters. “They will jump in to Nigerian when the differentials to Brent are attractive . . . It does not offer long-term support in the same way as term buying.”
巴克莱(Barclays)石油分析师米思文•马赫什(Miswin Mahesh)指出，印度炼油厂喜欢买便宜货。“如果尼日利亚原油与布伦特原油的差价有吸引力，他们就会赶紧购买……这种方式不能像签订长期购买合同那样提供长期支持。”
India this month replaced the US as the leading destination for Nigerian crude exports for the first time, while China is also buying more Nigerian oil.
上月，印度第一次取代美国，成为尼日利亚原油的第一大出口目的地。中国也在从尼日利亚进口更多的石油。
But Gulf states also have an advantage over other Opec members in the Asian market owing to the size of production, reliability, and easy access to the Indian Ocean.
但在亚洲市场上，海湾国家相对于其他OPEC成员国也有优势，这是由于产量规模、可靠性、接近印度洋等因素的影响。
Yet tensions over US shale are unlikely to spill into the open in Vienna this week. While Saudi Arabia may have maintained its market in the US, it has also been the only Opec member to voluntarily reduce output to balance supply and demand. Nigeria and Angola, on the other hand, have been producing as much as possible to maximise revenues, limiting the demands those countries can place on others.
然而，在维也纳会议上，围绕美国页岩油的紧张情绪不太可能公开表露出来。或许沙特能够维持其在美国的市场，它也是OPEC成员国中唯一一个能够通过自愿减产来维持供求平衡的国家。而尼日利亚和安哥拉能生产多少就生产多少，为的是让收入最大化，这限制了这些国家能够对其他国家提出的要求。
But a reckoning appears inevitable, particularly if growth in demand slows. “Opec will delay confronting the problem for as long as it can,” says Robin Mills, head of Manaar Energy, a Dubai-based consultancy. “But the enormity of the implications of US shale is now beginning to dawn on members.”
但冲击似乎是不可避免的，特别是如果需求增长放缓的话。迪拜咨询机构Manaar Energy的负责人罗宾•米尔斯(Robin Mills)说：“OPEC将尽可能地拖延面对问题，但美国页岩油对成员国的巨大影响现在开始显示出端倪了。”
天之聪教育
2013-06-17
天之聪教育
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