The Senate
联邦参议院
Not so flippable
逆转没那么简单
The Republicans were once confident of victory; now every seat counts
共和党人曾对大选获胜自信满满，而现在却变成每席必争的局面
Akin the Senate-loser?
“参议院输家”艾金？
ON THE television screen above George Allen’s head, Vietnamese farmers are harvesting mangosteen, longans and rose apples. It later transpires that Mr Allen, a former Republican senator from Virginia, does not know what any of these fruits are. Many of the people he speaks to during his visit to a Vietnamese shopping centre in suburban northern Virginia do not appear to speak English. But none of this prevents him from explaining with gusto to the dozen or so elderly immigrants gathered in Viet Taste restaurant why he should get his old job back. In a race that all agree is too close to call, every vote is worth chasing.
在乔治·艾伦（George Allen）头顶的电视屏幕内，越南裔的农民们正在忙于采摘山竹、桂圆和蒲桃。后来人们才发现这位前弗吉尼亚州共和党联邦参议员根本都叫不出这些水果的名字。他拜访了弗吉尼亚州北部市郊地区的一间越南购物中心。当时在场的很多听众似乎根本不懂英语。但所有这些困难并不能阻止他。他依然津津有味地在越南餐馆内向十几个老年移民大谈特谈为什么他自己应该重回参议院。在公认为是胜负悬于一线的这场竞选里，每一票都非常重要。
The fierce contest between Mr Allen and Tim Kaine, his Democratic rival, could determine which party ends up controlling the Senate as a whole. The outcome of almost half of the 33 races is in doubt—an unusually high number. It seems quite possible that the chamber may end up evenly split, with 50 members from each party. That would leave the newly elected vice-president to cast the deciding vote and give the party in control of the Senate the power to advance or strangle the president’s agenda, whomever is elected.
艾伦和他的民主党对手蒂姆·凯尼（Tim Kaine）之间的这场激烈竞选可能会决定哪个政党最终可以控制参议院。目前轮选的参议院33席中有大约一半花落谁家尚未可知，这么多的席位未定可算是不同寻常。现在看来参议院落得两党各分到50个席位的结果可能性还不小。如果真得发生这种情况，这将意味着新上任的副总统将有权投下决定票。无论谁当选总统，控制参议院的政党都将会获得推进或是阻挠总统议案的权力。
Should the Democrats retain a majority (they now have an edge of 53 to 47), they would be able to stymie almost anything a President Mitt Romney proposed. If Republicans win the chamber and the White House, they would be able to adopt some of their most controversial policies—reforming entitlements and slashing spending and tax rates—using a procedure known as reconciliation. And if Barack Obama prevails but the Democrats lose the Senate, most of his proposals will not even come to a vote. He will find himself in the awkward position of vetoing an endless succession of Republican bills.
如果民主党保持了他们在参议院的多数席位（现在他们有53席对47席的优势），即使米特·罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）拿下总统宝座，他们也能够反对总统提出的几乎任何议案。如果共和党控制了参议院，且拿下总统宝座，他们可以利用一种称为“预算协调”的程序通过一些最富争议的共和党政策，如改革应享权益、大幅削减开支和税率等等。而如果巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）获胜，但民主党输掉了参议院，他的大多数议案在国会内甚至连在国会进行投票的机会都没有。届时奥巴马会发现自己陷于一种尴尬境地，必须不停地行使总统否决权来推翻共和党此起彼伏的法案。
The fact that the majority remains up for grabs constitutes a reversal for Republicans, who until recently were confident of seizing the chamber. Senators serve for six years, and 2006 was a bumper year for Democrats. That has left them with 23 seats to defend to the Republicans’ ten. Since, at 53, the Democrats’ majority is so narrow, the Republicans need pick up only four seats (or three plus the presidency) to take charge. Yet a series of gaffes and surprises on the Republican side, coupled with unexpectedly strong campaigns from their opponents, has diminished their chances.
实际上，目前双方在争夺参议院多数席位这一事实本身对共和党来说就已经可算是一种失利了。就在不久之前，共和党人还信心满满他们一定能夺下参议院。参议员任期六年，而2006年是民主党人表现很好的一年。这意味着今年民主党人要试图保住23席，而共和党人只要保住10席。因为民主党人的席位数只有53，优势非常微薄，共和党人只要再多拿下4席（或是多拿下3席再加上总统宝座）就可以控制参议院了。但是共和党内发生的一系列失误和突发事件，加上他们的对手意外地打了几场强有力的选战，使得共和党的机会开始减少。
The best pick-up opportunities for the Republicans should be in right-leaning states with open seats. In Nebraska, for example, Deb Fischer, a local politician and rancher, looks poised to claim the seat of retiring Democrat Ben Nelson, even though the Democrats managed to recruit their ideal candidate, Bob Kerrey, a former governor and senator. Mr Kerrey, who has spent the past decade running a “progressive” university in Greenwich Village, trails badly in the polls.
对共和党人来说，最好的机会莫过于有轮选席位的右倾州了。例如，在内布拉斯卡州，当地政客兼农场主戴伯·菲舍尔（Deb Fischer）看上去十拿九稳可以赢得退休民主党人本·尼尔森（Ben Nelson）的席位。虽然民主党成功拉到理想的候选人－前州长兼参议员鲍勃·凯利（Bob Kerrey）代表民主党参选，但过去十年在格林威治村经营一间“进步”大学的凯利目前在民调上大大落后。
Where the plan starts to go wrong
计划从这里开始出问题
In North Dakota, however, the race to replace another retiring Democrat, Kent Conrad, is unexpectedly close. The Democrats are fielding Heidi Heitkamp, a cheery former state attorney-general who now helps run a low-emission coal-fired power plant. Her rival, Rick Berg, is a property mogul who recently became the state’s lone congressman. His new job has left him with a legislative record that is providing plenty of fodder for attack ads.
另一方面，在北达科塔州，争夺另一位退休民主党人肯特·康拉德（Kent Conrad）席位的选战却出人意料地打得难解难分。民主党派出性格活泼的海蒂·海特坎普（Heidi Heitkamp）。她之前曾任达科塔州检察长，现在运营着一间低排放的煤炭发电厂。她的对手里克·伯格（Rick Berg）是一位地产大亨，最近刚刚当选为该州唯一的联邦众议员。他在众议院的立法记录给他的对手提供了充分的材料来组织攻击广告。
Then there are right-leaning states with embattled Democratic incumbents. In Montana the challenger, Denny Rehberg, is slightly ahead of Jon Tester, who squeaked into office in the Democratic wave of 2006 by 3,562 votes. But in Missouri, Republican hopes of unseating Claire McCaskill atrophied when her rival, Todd Akin, claimed that in cases of “legitimate rape” women could somehow avoid becoming pregnant. Many Republican grandees urged Mr Akin to withdraw; he declined.
此外还有一些州不但右倾，且州内现任民主党人四面楚歌。在蒙塔拿州挑战者丹尼·雷伯格（Denny Rehberg）的支持率目前要略高于寻求连任的乔恩·泰斯特（Jon Tester）。泰斯特在2006年借民主党浪潮仅以3562票的优势勉强挤入参议院。而在密苏里州，共和党人将现任的克莱尔·麦克卡斯基尔（Claire McCaskill）推下台的希望受到了巨大打击，原因在于克莱尔的对手托德·艾金（Todd Akin）宣称女性在遭受“法律承认的强奸”时是不会受孕的。很多共和党元老敦促艾金推出竞选，但是艾金依然坚持继续竞选。
Missouri is only one of several states where primary voters saddled Republican with weak candidates. In Indiana, the Republican faithful contrived to put a safe seat at risk by tossing out the incumbent of 36 years, Dick Lugar, in favour of Richard Mourdock, a tea-party hero. That has given an opening to Joe Donnelly, a Democratic congressman with a centrist bent.
在初选中选出实力较弱的共和党候选人的州中，密苏里州只能算其中一个。密苏里州只是几个州内初选中胜出的共和党候选人在大选中赢面不大。在印第安纳州，共和党死忠派设法将已任职36年的迪克·卢格（Dick Lugar）推下台，提名茶党英雄理查德·默尔多克（Richard Mourdock）为候选人，从而让一个本来对共和党来说是相当稳固的席位变得悬而未决。这次内乱让立场稳健的民主党众议员乔·东纳利（Joe Donnelly）有机可趁。
Republicans, however, have a shot at picking up a seat in Wisconsin, where a popular ex-governor, Tommy Thompson, is taking on Tammy Baldwin, a gay congresswoman from liberal Madison, the state capital. In Connecticut, normally a reliably liberal state, a Democratic congressman, Chris Murphy, is making heavy weather of his campaign against Linda McMahon, a wrestling tycoon. Close races in Florida and Ohio also offer chances.
不过共和党人在威斯康辛州有希望拿下一席。在那里一位广受欢迎的前州长汤米·汤普逊（Tommy Thompson）将迎击来自民风开放的州府麦迪逊的一位女同性恋众议员塔米·鲍德温（Tammy Baldwin）。在通常较为顷自由派（民主党）的康涅狄格州，民主党众议员克里斯·墨菲（Chris Murphy）在面对摔角大亨琳达·麦克马洪（Linda McMahon）时意外地陷入苦战。而佛罗里达州和俄亥俄州势均力敌的选战也给了共和党人一定的机会。
Mr Obama’s recent polling advantage in all these places, if it endures, is likely to boost Democratic candidates further down the ticket. It is hard to imagine him carrying Florida or Ohio without the local Democratic candidate for Senate also prevailing. (Were Mitt Romney to take the lead, though, the Republicans’ prospects in the Senate would blossom.) Mr Obama’s coat-tails may help lift Wall-Street-basher Elizabeth Warren past pickup-driving Everyman and one-time nude pin-up Scott Brown in Massachusetts, despite Ms Warren’s inability to substantiate her claim that she has native American forebears.
在所有以上诸州，奥巴马最近显示的民调优势如果能够持续，很有可能会对其他各级竞选的民主党候选人起到推波助澜的作用。很难想象佛罗里达州或俄亥俄州的民主党参议院候选人失利，而奥巴马在总统大选中却拿下两州的情况。（而如果是米特·罗姆尼在大选中领先，那么共和党人夺取参议院的机会将会大大提高。）奥巴马的势头可能会连带推动“华尔街批评者”伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren），让她在马塞诸塞州的参议院竞选中超过开着皮卡，平易近人，以前曾当过男模特的斯科特·布朗（Scott Brown），即使沃伦无法拿出证据证实她自称有美洲土著血统这一点也无伤大雅。
Republican-held seats are also under threat, not just in Massachusetts and Nevada, as expected, but also in Arizona and Maine, which had been considered unassailable. In Arizona the Democrats are fielding a strong candidate in Richard Carmona, a decorated veteran, Latino and former surgeon-general under George W. Bush. His opponent is Jeff Flake, a deficit hawk who has cast votes against lots of popular programmes. In Maine the retirement of Olympia Snowe, after 18 years, has left Republicans floundering in a left-leaning state. Angus King, an independent former governor, looks likely to win the seat, and refuses to say which party he will caucus with. That makes him yet another joker in a contest in which Republicans once thought they held all the cards.
有些共和党持有席位也有危险。这不仅仅发生在意料之中的马塞诸塞州和内华达州，甚至在之前被认为是坚不可破的亚利桑那州和缅因州也是如此。在亚利桑那州民主党派出了非常有实力的理查德·卡摩那（Richard Carmona）为候选人。他是一位军功硕硕的拉丁裔老兵，在小布什（George W. Bush）总统任下担任过美国公共卫生署军团领导人。他的对手杰夫·弗雷克（Jeff Flake）是一位财政鹰派，曾投票反对过很多受民众欢迎的项目。而在缅因州任职18年的参议员奥林匹亚·斯诺伊（Olympia Snowe）的退休让这个左顷州内的共和党人陷入不知所措的境地。无党派的前州长安格斯·金（Angus King）目前看来有很大希望赢下这一席位，但是他拒绝透露一旦当选将会支持两党中的哪一方。这意味着，在这场共和党人一度认为已经摸到所有好牌的竞赛中，他会是另一张还藏在牌堆里的王牌。
经济学家
2012-10-10
经济学家
215次
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