全球经济前景趋于黯淡

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全球经济前景趋于黯淡

天之聪教育 2013-04-24 天之聪教育 385次

全球经济前景趋于黯淡

Pessimism deepens over global economy

Signs of weakness clouded the world economic outlook yesterday after a leading business survey indicated the contraction in eurozone manufacturing activity gathered pace this month, while industrial expansion also slowed in the US and China.

世界经济前景呈现趋弱的迹象。昨天一项主要的商业调查显示，本月欧元区制造业活动收缩加剧，而美国和中国的工业扩张也放慢了脚步。

With eurozone officials concerned that the bloc has hit the political limits of austerity in the face of growing opposition in recession-hit countries, the gloomy data add to pressure on the European Central Bank to cut rates next week.

欧元区官员担忧，随着深受衰退打击的国家内部遭遇越来越多的反对，欧元区的紧缩努力触及了政治限制。不景气的数据给欧洲央行(ECB)增加了下周降低利率的压力。

The closely watched flash – or initial – Markit purchasing managers’ index for eurozone manufacturing dipped to a four-month low of 46.5 in April, far below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. The composite index for Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, fell sharply to 48.8, a six-month low.

各方密切关注的Markit 4月欧元区制造业采购经理人指数预览值(flash PMI)跌至46.5这一四个月新低，远低于增长与收缩的分界点50。欧元区最大经济体德国的这一指标骤降至48.8，为六个月以来的最低点。

Separately, Spain’s central bank estimated the Spanish economy contracted 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of the year despite a pick-up in exports.

与此同时，西班牙央行估测今年第一季度西班牙经济收缩了0.5%，尽管出口有所增加。

The manufacturing PMIs also suggested manufacturers in the world’s two largest economies were suffering from a slowdown in global economic activity.

制造业采购经理人指数也显示，世界最大的两个经济体的制造业受到了全球经济活动放缓的冲击。

Julian Callow, economist at Barclays, said: “The conventional wisdom was that the global recovery would gain momentum as the year rolls on.

巴克莱经济学家朱利安•卡劳(Julian Callow)说：“传统经验认为，今年剩余时间里全球复苏将形成势头。”

“But if you look at what has happened to manufacturing confidence in recent months, it’s looking a little more doubtful that the world economy will pick up in the second quarter.”

“但如果从近几个月的制造业信心来看，第二季度世界经济能否加快复苏正出现更多疑问。”

Last week, the International Monetary Fund called for more economic stimulus after shaving its estimate for global growth this year from the 3.5 per cent forecast in January to 3.3 per cent. The fund also cut its estimate of eurozone output, forecasting the bloc’s economy will shrink by 0.3 per cent this year.

上周，国际货币基金组织(IMF)将今年的全球增长从1月份的3.5%下调至3.3%，并呼吁采取更多的经济刺激措施。IMF也下调了对欧元区产出的预期，预计今年欧元区经济将收缩0.3%。

Even the hawks on the ECB’s governing council have signalled they would consider a rate cut from 0.75 per cent if macroeconomic indicators continued to worsen. If the governing council acts next Thursday, analysts say it is most likely to chop a quarter percentage point off the main refinancing rate and leave the zero per cent deposit rate untouched.

就连欧洲央行理事会的鹰派人物也暗示，如果宏观经济指标继续恶化，他们将考虑降低目前0.75%的利率。分析师表示，如果下周四理事会采取行动，主要再融资利率很可能会下降0.25个百分点，而0%的存款利率不变。

But some are sceptical that that would have any impact on companies in credit-strapped southern eurozone countries. The ECB has acknowledged that the “transmission mechanism”, whereby its rates translate into real-world borrowing costs in countries such as Spain and Italy, has broken down.

对于这是否会对南欧一些信贷短缺国家的企业带来影响，一些人表示怀疑。欧洲央行承认，在西班牙和意大利等国，其利率转化为实际借贷成本的“传递机制”已经失灵。

The flash PMI for the US fell to 52 in April – the weakest level since last November – from 54.6 last month. The HSBC/Markit manufacturing flash PMI for China dipped to a two-month low of 50.5, from 51.6.

4月份，美国预览PMI指数下降至52，为去年11月以来的最低点，低于上个月的54.6。HSBC/Markit中国制造业预览PMI指数从51.6下降至50.5，为两个月来的新低。

The manufacturing ISM figure – the most closely watched barometer of manufacturing activity in the US – is out on May 1.

受到最密切追踪的美国制造业活动指标——制造业ISM指数将于5月1日发布。