日本承认去年第四季度GDP“算错”
Japan admits to GDP errors
Japanese government statisticians are smarting after a private sector economist pointed out errors that led them to overstate weakness in the economy during the fourth quarter last year.
日本政府的统计人员正陷入窘境，此前一名私营部门的经济学家指出，一些差错导致这些统计人员高估了去年第四季度日本经济的疲弱程度。
In an announcement on Tuesday, the Cabinet Office said that a miscalculation of the value of trade in services between October and December meant that nominal gross domestic product was reported as shrinking by 0.3 per cent, rather than the true figure of 0.1 per cent.
日本内阁府(Cabinet Office)周二宣布，去年10月至12月期间服务贸易价值上的一个计算失误意味着，官方报告的名义国内生产总值(GDP)萎缩幅度为0.3%，而真实萎缩幅度应当是0.1%。
The GDP deflator, a broader gauge of inflation than the consumer price index, was also misreported at 0.4 per cent, rather than 0.2 per cent, the Cabinet Office said.
日本内阁府还表示，GDP平减指数（GDP Deflator，比消费价格指数(CPI)更全面的通胀标尺）也被误报为0.4%，而真实数字是0.2%。
Earlier that day, Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at the Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, had published a report drawing attention to the errors – the result of a failure to input correct seasonally-adjusted figures – and challenged the government to address them.
当日早些时候，日本第一生命经济研究所(Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute)首席经济学家新家义贵(Yoshiki Shinke)发表一份报告，提醒各方注意这些差错——其症结在于有关人员未能正确输入经季节因素调整的数字——并要求政府解决这一问题。
The admission comes amid concern over the integrity of official data used by investors. Yesterday, for example, China reported vigorous trade data at odds with the lacklustre readings from neighbouring countries.
日本政府承认出错之际，各方对投资者所使用的官方数据的可靠性普遍感到担忧。例如，昨日中国报告的强劲贸易数据，就与邻国报告的乏力数据形成抵触。
It also comes amid heightened interest in Japanese data, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attempts to overturn years of sluggish growth through aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus. While Japanese officials will probably be able to smooth over the effects of the slip in their growth forecasts for the world’s third-largest economy, the restatement may prompt economists to tweak their nominal growth projections for the first quarter and for the 2013 calendar year.
此外，这件事还发生在各方对日本经济数据产生更大兴趣之际。日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)企图借助激进的货币和财政刺激，扭转多年来增长乏力的局面。尽管日本官员应当能够平滑修正掉全球第三大经济体增长预测值出错的影响，但这一修正可能会促使经济学家调整他们对首季度乃至2013自然年的名义增长预测。
“It’s a simple, basic mistake,” said Masayuki Kichikawa, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Tokyo. “It hurts the credibility of the government, to some extent.”
“这是一个简单、基本的错误，”美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)驻东京首席经济学家吉川雅幸(Masayuki Kichikawa)表示，“它在一定程度上损害了政府的可信度。”
Mr Shinke, 38, who spent a couple of years at the Cabinet Office on secondment from Dai-Ichi, said he discovered the errors late last month, while drawing up his forecasts for first-quarter growth figures due to be announced by the government next week.
现年38岁的新家义贵曾被日本内阁府从第一生命经济研究所借调过来工作了两三年。新家义贵说，他是在上月下旬发现这些差错的，当时他正在拟定自己对首季度增长数字的预测——日本政府将在下周公布这些数字。
He notified the government on April 26, the day before the start of national “Golden Week” holidays, and followed up with another phone call the following week. By Tuesday he had yet to hear back.
新家义贵在4月26日日本全国进入“黄金周”假期的前一天通报了政府，并在一周后电话跟进。截至本周二，他一直未得到回音。
Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief economist at the Itochu Economic Research Institute, said: “Even if the mistake was a small one, they should have admitted it.”
伊藤忠经济研究所(Itochu Economic Research Institute)首席经济学家丸山义正(Yoshimasa Maruyama)表示：“即使是个小错，他们也应当承认一下。”
天之聪教育
2013-05-09
天之聪教育
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