周蕴仪：何时走完复苏路？

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周蕴仪：何时走完复苏路？

周蕴仪 2013-11-26 天之聪教育 986次

原文：
Are We There Yet?
America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government can help a bit.

“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.

The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.

Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.

Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak? That’s because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy. When policy is loosened, demand rebounds. This recession was the result of a financial crisis. Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt. Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014. By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.

译文：周蕴仪译李长栓审

何时走完复苏路？
——美国本次经济复苏之慢史无前例，但政府能够有所作为。

   “美利坚，汝欲何往？”美国“垮掉的一代”（Beat Generation）代表人物杰克·凯鲁克（Jack Kerouac）半世纪前的疑惑，如今成为悬挂在全球经济上空的最大问号，也是美国选民的首要困扰。十一月二日中期选举在即，参加投票的选民却要面对居高不下的百分之十失业率。美国民众要做好准备，面对漫长磕绊的复苏之路。

   尽管自上世纪三十年代以来杀伤力最大的经济衰退已结束一年，但并不强劲的复苏步伐又在年初骤缓。第二季度按年折算之国内生产总值增幅微乎其微，仅仅上升百分之一点六，而且此后再无起色。暂时购房税优惠措施届满，房地产市场随之暴跌；私营企业新增岗位少之又少，失业率上升似乎在所难免。今年夏天，眼见复苏势头持续放缓，民心于是日趋惶恐，忧心美国经济回归衰退。

   幸好，目前看来，美国民众似乎担心过度。第二季度经济疲软，或许因为进口中国商品暂时激增。最新数据显示，八月零售业绩表现尚佳，申请失业津贴人数减少；经济形势虽然偏软，但已不再节节败退。况且，历史证明，即使复苏初期步履蹒跚，却罕有返回萎缩之例。目前形势显示，美国经济极可能以百分之二点五的涨幅缓慢爬升，虽然高于失速，却无济于降低失业率。

   美国经济衰退向来迅速回弹，为何此次复苏前景如此堪忧？原因是，过去经济萎缩源于紧缩性货币政策；只要放宽货币政策，便可提振需求。但本次衰退的罪魁祸首是金融危机。一般而言，经济若遭金融危机重创，复苏进程便会疲弱缓慢，因为银行体系必须修复，银行资产负债结构有待重组。由于银行减持债务通常需要七年之久，也就意味着美国要到2014年才能走出低谷。美国家庭减债速度之快，可说非同寻常；但即使乐观估计，其减债征程至多只走了一半。

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来源：周蕴仪博客http://blog.sina.com.cn/chowwanee