保留英镑独立性的好处

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保留英镑独立性的好处

天之聪教育 2013-04-28 天之聪教育 286次

保留英镑独立性的好处

What a floating currency gives and what it does not

The crisis has brought important lessons about the benefits of possessing a freely floating currency. One benefit, UK experience suggests, is monetary and fiscal policy autonomy. But a substantial depreciation has contributed much less to the adjustment of the current account than most would have expected. These lessons have important policy implications.

在拥有自由浮动货币的好处方面，这场经融危机带给了我们一些重要的经验。英国的经验表明，好处之一是，能够保持货币与财政政策的独立性。但大幅贬值下英国经常账户的调整幅度，远低于多数人的预期。这些经验具有重要的政策影响。

As Belgian economist Paul De Grauwe of the London School of Economics has noted, the benefits of retaining a currency on one’s own are visible in the post-crisis interest rates paid on long-term public debt. The observation is simple: the International Monetary Fund forecasts for the ratio of net public debt to gross domestic product of the UK and Spain are essentially identical. In 2017, the ratio is 93 per cent for the UK and 95 per cent for Spain. Yet the yield on UK 10-year bonds is firmly under 2 per cent – among the lowest in UK history, and not much above Germany’s. The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds, meanwhile, is just under 5 per cent, far below the 7.5 per cent last July, but expensive for a country that is being forced towards deflation.

正如伦敦政治经济学院(London School of Economics)的比利时经济学家保罗•德格劳威(Paul de Grauwe)所指出，保留自有货币的好处，从金融危机后不同国家长期公共债务的不同利率中就可以看出来。我们很容易注意到，根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的预测，英国和西班牙的公共债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比基本相同。到2017年，英国的这一比例预计将为93%，西班牙——95%。然而，英国的10年期国债收益率稳定保持在2%以下，这是英国有史以来最低水平，比德国国债高不了多少。然而西班牙10年期国债收益率仅略低于5%，尽管远低于去年7月的7.5%，但对一个正被推向通缩的国家而言，这样的发债成本仍过于高昂。

Why should countries with such similar fiscal positions face such different bond yields? One possible explanation is the UK’s long history of successful debt management. Also relevant is the fact that Spanish bonds may still be thought subject to the catastrophic risk of a eurozone break-up, despite the European Central Bank’s promise to intervene via its programme of outright monetary transactions. The ability and desire of the Bank of England to prevent outright default is more credible than that of an independent, supranational central bank. The BoE, as buyer of last resort, also promises market liquidity. If the market for public debt is subject to self-fulfilling prophecies of good or bad outcomes, this should guarantee stability at favourable rates.

为什么财政状况如此相似的国家，国债收益率却有天壤之别？一个可能的解释是，英国拥有成功管理债务的悠久历史。另外一个可能的原因是，尽管欧洲央行(ECB)承诺通过其“直接货币交易”(OMT)计划进行干预，但西班牙国债可能仍面临欧元区解体的灾难性风险。英国央行(BoE)阻止直接违约的能力与意愿，比一家独立的超国家央行更让人放心。作为“最后购买人”的英国央行，也承诺提高市场流动性。如果公共债务市场符合“预言（无论预言的结果是好还是坏）会自我实现”定律，英国央行的做法应该能够保证，英国国债的收益率能够保持在对英国有利的水平上。

Being a monetary area, as the UK is with sterling, offers further benefits. One is that it is its own haven for people who need to hold assets in the domestic currency. The haven in the eurozone, however, is Germany. In times of panic, money tends to flee there from weaker member countries, causing fiscal and financial crises. Second, if people wish to hold fewer sterling-denominated liabilities, the exchange rate provides a mechanism for adjustment. For Spain, however, the adjustment is through the yield.

保留了英镑、从而成为一个货币区域，这对英国而言还有其他一些好处。其一是，对必须以英镑持有一些资产的英国民众而言，英国本身就是避风港。然而，欧元区民众的避风港是德国。发生恐慌时，资本倾向于从欧元区较弱的成员国流出，从而引发财政与金融危机。其次，如果人们希望减持以英镑计价的债务，汇率提供了一个调整的途径。然而，对西班牙而言，这样的调整是通过收益率实现的。

What is clear is that becoming part of a currency union undermines a government’s ability to manage public debt. This has important spillover effects on to banks and so credit supply. The UK also has problems, but they are less severe and more susceptible to policy.

显然，加入货币联盟，会损害一国政府管理公共债务的能力。这会产生重大溢出效应，影响银行以及信贷供给。英国也有问题，但不是那么严重，更容易用政策来纠正。

Yet the impact of the devaluation of sterling – roughly 20 per cent on a trade-weighted basis since late 2007 – has been disappointing, a point discussed last February by Martin Weale, a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, and in the latest Bank Inflation Report. The most recent IMF forecasts provide a simple story: in 2007, the UK had a current account deficit of 2.2 per cent of GDP, against 10 per cent in Spain, 10.1 per cent in Portugal and 14.6 per cent in Greece. But, in 2012, the UK’s deficit is forecast to be up to 3.5 per cent of GDP, against 1.1 per cent in Spain, 1.5 per cent in Portugal and 2.9 per cent in Greece.

然而，英镑贬值（以贸易加权汇率计，比2007年末贬值20%左右）的影响令人失望，这一点英国央行货币政策委员会(Monetary Policy Committee)委员马丁•威勒(Martin Weale)以及最近的《银行通胀报告》(Bank Inflation Report)讨论过。从IMF的预测中可以一目了然看出问题：2007年，英国经常账户赤字相当于GDP的2.2%，而西班牙的这个数字为10%，葡萄牙——10.1%，希腊——14.6%。但在2012年，英国经常账户赤字与GDP之比预计将上升到3.5%，而西班牙的这个数字预计为1.1%，葡萄牙——1.5%，希腊——2.9%。

Furthermore, the volume of UK exports grew between the second quarter of 2009 and the third quarter of 2012 by less than those from troubled eurozone countries. Part of the reason these countries’ exports have done better than the UK’s is that their recessions have been far deeper. But France, Germany and the US have also done better.

此外，从2009年第2季度到2012年第3季度期间，英国出口额累计增长幅度不及那些身处困境的欧元区国家。这些国家出口表现好于英国的部分原因在于，它们经历的衰退更加深重。但是，法国、德国与美国的出口表现也好于英国。

After a long period when its share in the imports of goods of other members of the Group of Seven countries was in decline, the UK’s share has stabilised since the crisis. This is not enough. Part of the reason performance has disappointed is that its fall in productivity growth has partly offset the devaluation.

英国在其他七国集团(G7)国家商品进口中所占份额，经历了长期的下滑。自金融危机以来，这一份额稳定了下来。但这还不够。英国出口表现令人失望的部分原因是，生产率增速下降，在一定程度上抵消了英镑贬值对出口的促进作用。

Meanwhile, the UK’s share of services imports, which was soaring before the crisis, stabilised and then fell. A leading element in the poor performance is declining exports of financial services. So the financial crisis has hit the UK via its exports. It came to rely on a sector that produces a service the world wants less. I cannot blame the world. But, adds the BoE, reduced supply may also affect these exports.

与此同时，英国在其他七国集团国家服务进口中所占份额，在危机前迅速增长，但后来逐渐停止增长，接着开始缩小。导致英国服务出口表现糟糕的一个主要原因是，金融服务出口下滑。这样说来，金融危机通过冲击金融服务出口的方式，对英国造成了冲击。英国依赖的这个行业所生产的服务，在世界范围内需求减少。英国央行表示，全世界的大环境是无法改变的。但该行补充道，服务供应减少可能也是影响服务出口表现的因素之一。

The failure to achieve a big adjustment in the current account is deeply troubling. This is true, above all, because such adjustment is the only way to combine a desire to eliminate the fiscal deficit with the likelihood of continued frugality in the UK private sector. If the current account does not adjust, either the fiscal consolidation will not happen or, if it does, it will be at the expense of a prolonged slump in output. The flexible exchange rate has given the UK autonomy. That is good. But it has not given it adjustment. This is bad. Indeed, it is a big disappointment.

经常账户未能实现大幅度调整令人深感不安。首要的一点，这种说法确实没错，因为这种调整是把削减财政赤字的希望，与英国私人部门继续奉行节俭的可能性结合起来的唯一途径。如果经常账户没有得到调整，那么，要么财政整固无法实现，要么财政整固的实现将以产出下滑期延长为代价。弹性汇率赋予了英国以自主权。这很好。但弹性汇率没有让英国实现经常账户调整。这很糟糕——确实非常令人失望。