欧洲银行业资本重组刻不容缓

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欧洲银行业资本重组刻不容缓

天之聪教育 2013-05-10 天之聪教育 293次

欧洲银行业资本重组刻不容缓

Europe must act now to ward off zombie banks

        Unlike the US, Europe failed to recapitalise its biggest banks following the financial crisis of 2007-09. Instead, policy makers gambled that economic recovery would lift the profitability of financial institutions, enabling them to increase their capital buffers over time. It is now clear that this strategy has failed. The eurozone is in a new recession and the depressed share prices of many banks signal that they are in dismal health.

        与美国不同，欧洲没有在2007-09年金融危机后对该地区最大的银行实施资本重组。相反，政策制定者打赌经济复苏将提高金融机构的盈利能力，假以时日便能增强它们的资本缓冲。如今真相大白：这种战略是失败的。欧元区陷入新一轮衰退，多家银行股价惨淡，表明它们的健康状况不容乐观。

        In recent speeches, such as one on April 16, Klaas Knot, Dutch central bank president and European Central Bank governing council member, noted that restoration of banks’ balance sheets was a crucial requirement for economic recovery. To facilitate this process, Mr Knot stated, it was essential to create transparency about losses in the banking sector and to have an orderly resolution of lossmaking assets. Without this, banks would remain restrictive in making new loans. He added that the planned European banking union offered an appropriate opportunity for speeding up the resolution process.

        在最近的几次讲话中（例如4月16日），荷兰央行行长、欧洲央行(ECB)管理委员会委员克拉斯•诺特(Klaas Knot)提到，恢复银行资产负债表是经济复苏的重要前提。诺特表示，如要加速恢复过程，就必须公开透明地披露银行业的损失，并且有序地清算亏损资产。做不到这一点，银行在发放新贷款时仍将束手束脚。他补充道，计划建立的欧洲银行业联盟为加速清算进程提供了有利的机会。

        We agree with Mr Knot’s analysis. Unfortunately, however, an orderly resolution of lossmaking bank assets is still a long way off, despite the fact that Europe has conducted several bank stress tests in the past few years.

        我们赞同诺特的分析。不幸的是，尽管欧洲在过去几年内多次对银行进行压力测试，但有序清算银行亏损资产仍然难以实现。

        Until now, Europe’s banking sector has been kept afloat by implicit state guarantees of virtually all liabilities. A recent report by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy analysis, a research institute, finds that in 2012 these guarantees provided banks in Europe with an annual average funding advantage equivalent to 0.3 per cent of total assets (which amounts to a funding advantage of 2 per cent of total assets on a present value basis). Given total banking assets of €33tn in the eurozone, we are talking about an implicit guarantee of about €650bn.

        到现在为止，多亏政府对几乎所有债务提供隐性担保，欧洲银行业才大难不死。荷兰经济政策研究局(CPB Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)近期的报告显示，2012年，这些担保为欧洲银行带来的年平均融资优势相当于总资产的0.3%（如按现值计算，融资优势相当于总资产的2%）。由于欧元区银行总资产为33万亿欧元，因此政府的隐性担保价值约为6500亿欧元。

        The plight of Europe’s banks worsened considerably when Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch finance minister and president of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, stated that the approach taken in Cyprus of resolving failed institutions without using taxpayer money would in future preferably apply throughout the eurozone.

        荷兰财长、欧元区财长集团主席杰伦•迪塞布洛姆(Jeroen Dijsselbloem)表示，塞浦路斯所采用的不用纳税人掏钱清算破产银行的做法，将来最好应用于欧元区各国。此番言论令欧洲银行的困境雪上加霜。

        Banks are already saddled with ample unrecognised losses on their assets, estimated by many observers to be at least several hundreds of billions of euros, and an additional loss of their present funding advantage will be crippling. Financial markets well understood Mr Dijsselbloem’s message, as shown by a subsequent decline in the share prices of many institutions. Very low bank valuations imply that they will find it almost impossible to recapitalise themselves by issuing equity or debt that is convertible into shares – in part because share issuance would further dilute the value of implicit state guarantees.

        银行资产已经背上了高额的未确认损失，许多观察人士估计损失至少有数千亿欧元。如果再失去目前的融资优势，将对它们造成严重打击。金融市场领会了迪塞布洛姆的意思，他发表上述言论过后多家银行股价下跌便能反映出这一点。银行股估值极低意味着，银行几乎不可能通过发行股票或可转债实现资本重组，部分原因是发行股票会进一步稀释政府隐性担保的价值。

        It is now urgent to start recognising losses on balance sheets to avoid a proliferation of Japanese-style zombie banks in Europe. To facilitate this, we advocate conducting a new and thorough stress test soon, similar to the one administered by US supervisory authorities in 2009. Of course, the financial position of most governments in Europe is much worse than that of the US in 2009. So Europe needs to take a path towards recapitalisation that in some respects differs from the earlier US approach.

        在银行资产负债表上确认损失，避免欧洲涌现日本式的僵尸银行，已是刻不容缓。为加速这一进程，我们建议迅速开展新一轮的全面压力测试，就像美国监管机构2009年所做的那样。当然，欧洲大多数政府的财政状况远不如2009年的美国政府。因此，欧洲的资本重组之路应与之前美国采取的方法有所差异。

        First, a credible stress test should assess the losses hidden on the balance sheet for each bank, as well as the likely cost of the removal of implicit guarantees of all liabilities. This will result in an estimated capital shortage, taking into account capital levels as required by international bank supervisors.

        首先，应通过可靠的压力测试评估各个银行资产负债表上的隐性损失，以及撤销所有债务隐性担保的可能成本。如将国际银行监管机构要求的资本水平考虑在内，压力测试估计将得出资本短缺的结论。

        Second, supervisors need to assess whether the capital shortfall can be financed by international capital markets and/or governments. If the required amounts are too high, the bank must be entered immediately into a resolution and restructuring process imposing some losses on unsecured creditors (the Cyprus model). The legal basis for this would be an intervention law, which some countries may need to enact through emergency legislation. Most banks in Europe, unlike their counterparts in Cyprus, have significant financing by bondholders and can be recapitalised by imposing losses on holders of subordinated and common debt without infringing on savings deposits.

        其次，监管机构需要评估能否通过国际资本市场和/或政府的融资填补资本缺口。如果所需金额过高，就必须立即让相关银行进入清算和重组程序，让无担保的债权人承担一些损失（即塞浦路斯模式）。要这样做，需要以干预法(intervention law)为法律基础，一些国家可能需通过紧急立法来制定这样一部法律。与塞浦路斯的银行不同，欧洲大多数银行通过发行债券获得了大量资金，如果进行资本重组，可以由次级债务和一般债务的持有者承担损失，而不必触及储户的利益。

        Third, in the event that capital shortfalls are relatively small, supervisors could instead implement the US model. This would mean banks being given a limited period of time to issue equity on international capital markets, after which national governments would step in to provide the remainder.

        第三，假如资本缺口相对较低，那么监管机构可以采用美国模式，也就是允许银行在限定期内在国际资本市场发行股票，而国家政府之后将介入，提供其余的资金。

        Europe has postponed the recapitalisation of its banking sector far too long. And, without such a recapitalisation, the danger is that economic stagnation will continue for a long period, thereby putting Europe on a course towards Japanese-style inertia and the proliferation of zombie banks.

        欧洲银行业的资本重组已经拖延太久。如果不实施资本重组，经济将面临长期停滞的危险，并导致欧洲像日本那样缺乏活力、僵尸银行丛生。