周蕴仪：复苏路上的党派博弈

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周蕴仪：复苏路上的党派博弈

周蕴仪 2013-11-26 天之聪教育 796次

原文：

Battling on the bus

America’s biggest problem is that its politicians have yet to acknowledge that the economy is in for such a long, slow haul, let alone prepare for the consequences. A few brave officials are beginning to sound warnings that the jobless rate is likely to “stay high”. But the political debate is more about assigning blame for the recession than about suggesting imaginative ways to give more oomph to the recovery.

Republicans argue that Barack Obama’s shift towards “big government” explains the economy’s weakness, and that high unemployment is proof that fiscal stimulus was a bad idea. In fact, most of the growth in government to date has been temporary and unavoidable; the longer-run growth in government is more modest, and reflects the policies of both Mr Obama and his predecessor. And the notion that high joblessness “proves” that stimulus failed is simply wrong. The mechanics of a financial bust suggest that without a fiscal boost the recession would have been much worse.

Democrats have their own class-warfare version of the blame game, in which Wall Street’s excesses caused the problem and higher taxes on high-earners are part of the solution. That is why Mr. Obama’s legislative priority before the mid-terms is to ensure that the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year for households earning more than $250,000 but are extended for everyone else.

This takes an unnecessary risk with the short-term recovery. America’s experience in 1937 and Japan’s in 1997 are powerful evidence that ill-timed tax rises can tip weak economies back into recession. Higher taxes at the top, along with the waning of fiscal stimulus and belt-tightening by the states, will make a weak growth rate weaker still. Less noticed is that Mr. Obama’s fiscal plan will also worsen the medium-term budget mess, by making tax cuts for the middle class permanent.

译文：

复苏路上的党派博弈

      美国的主要问题，是政客尚未承认经济复苏将是一场漫长拉力，因此，更别指望他们做好准备应对衰退后果。尽管若干官员已挺身而出，警告国人失业率可能“居高不下”，但国内的政治争论更关心诿过于人，而非提供妙计良方，为复苏引擎注入新动力。

     共和党辩称，经济疲软不振是奥巴马转向“大政府”政策所致，而高失业率则“证明”用财政手段刺激经济毫无成效。其实，迄今为止，政府职权扩大，大都是必要的权宜之策；政府职权的长期扩幅相对较小，奥巴马并未背离自身或其前任的执政理念。而把高失业率归咎于财政刺激手段失灵是大谬不然；根据金融危机传导机理，若无财政刺激，衰退必然更严重。

      在党派诿责的游戏中，民主党惯用阶级斗争理论：华尔街的肆意妄行是祸根；提高富人的税率是一个脱困方案。因此，中期选举前，奥巴马的立法工作重点将针对布什政府的减税政策，即确保年底结束对年收入二十五万美元以上家庭的减税待遇，但对其它家庭延长减税优惠。

     然而，对经济的短期恢复而言，此举会招致无谓风险。美国1937年和日本1997年的经历便是前车之鉴。提税时机不对，偏弱的经济将会返退。加重高收入群体税负，加上财政刺激减少与各州的紧缩政策，只会让疲弱的增长更加软绵无力。另外，奥巴马的财政计划有个鲜受关注的问题：对中产阶级实施永久性减税，将会加剧中期预算危机。

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来源：周蕴仪博客http://blog.sina.com.cn/chowwanee