刘晓明大使在英国“吹风论坛”午餐会上的演讲:“黄金时代”与“光明前景”

Golden Era and Promising Prospects

Speech by H.E. Ambassador Liu Xiaoming at The Briefing Circle Luncheon

（2016年1月13日，伦敦改革俱乐部）

The Reform Club, 13 January 2016

尊敬的休•麦瑞尔主席，

女士们、先生们：

Director Hugh Merrill,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

很高兴出席“吹风论坛”的午餐会。首先，我祝大家新年快乐！

Let me first of all wish all of you Happy New Year!

我非常赞赏“吹风论坛”主张各界特别是政府与企业的深度对话。 所以我选择今天的活动作为2016年我的首场公共外交活动，并发表2016年我的第一篇演讲。

It is a real pleasure to join you at this Briefing Circle Luncheon. I very much support the principles of the Briefing Circle that encourages a deep dialogue between leaders in the private and public sectors.

That is why I have made today’s luncheon my very first event of public diplomacy in 2016 and I am going to make my first speech of the new year.

中英之间的深度对话意义非同寻常。你们今天选择的两个重要议题——中英关系和中国经济，也正是当前在我们两国以及更大的范围最热门的话题。

Such a deep dialogue is highly significant between China and the UK. This provides the rationale for the two topics of our discussion today:

• First, the China-UK relationship.

• And second, and the Chinese economy.

I believe that both these topics are of great interest to you. I am delighted to share with you my observations and I will take your questions afterwards.

第一个问题——中英关系，如果用最简练的词语来概括就是“黄金时代”。

Let me begin with the China-UK relationship.

The phrase that best summarises the China-UK relationship today is the “Golden Era”.

当前，中英关系正处于历史最好时期。刚刚过去的2015年是中英关系的重要年份。习近平主席对英进行的“超级国事访问”产生了超级影响，带动了新一轮中英关系热，两国无论是政府、议会，还是企业、学校，还是智库、媒体，都以前所未有的热情关注、参与和支持发展中英关系。如果说习主席访问拉开了中英关系“黄金时代”的序幕，那么2016年就是“黄金时代”的元年。我认为，在新的一年、新的时期，两国关系的着力点应体现在“高”、“实”、“广”和“新”四个字上。

Indeed, the China-UK relationship is at its best ever. The past year, 2015, was a significant year in the history of our ties. President Xi Jinping’s ‘Super State Visit’ to the UK had super impact.

China and the UK enjoyed a strong advance in bilateral relations. There has been unprecedented enthusiasm from all sectors in both countries, from the governments and legislatures, businesses and schools to think tanks and the media. Everyone was joining in to follow, support and grow the relationship between China and the UK.

If President Xi’s State Visit is the prologue of the “Golden Era” of China-UK ties, then 2016 is definitely the opening year of the “Golden Era”. The following four words summarise what I hope China-UK ties should achieve in the new year of a new era:

• High

• Solid

• Broad

• And new

“高”，就是既要确保中英关系在高水平上持续、稳定、健康发展，也要发挥高层政治引领作用。中英已宣布构建“面向21世纪全球全面战略伙伴关系”，使中英关系上升到了全新的高度，也是目前中国与各大国关系中最高定位。在这一背景下，我们要继续保持高层交往势头，深化政治互信，做好两国关系顶层设计。比如在今年，我们要举办好两国总理年度会晤，合作办好二十国集团杭州峰会，统筹好中英之间的经济财金、高级别人文交流和战略对话等三大对话机制，还要举行首次高级别安全对话机制。双方将加强政府各部门、政党、议会等方面的交流合作，我们也欢迎更多英王室成员访华。

Let me explain one by one.

“High” means that China-UK relations should continue to maintain the current high level of sound, stable and sustainable development. Also, there should be a strong, high-level political guidance. With the agreement on building a global comprehensive strategic partnership for the 21st century, China-UK ties have been upgraded to a brand new level. This definition represents the highest level so far for relations between China and other major countries.

In this context, China and the UK should keep the momentum of interaction between the top leadership in 2016, deepen political mutual trust and enhance the top-level design for the relationship:

• We should ensure the success of this year’s Annual Prime Ministers’ Meeting when David Cameron visits China.

• We should work closely at the G20 Summit in Hangzhou, China.

• We should coordinate the efforts of the Economic and Financial Dialogue, the High-Level Culture and People-to-People Dialogue and the Strategic Dialogue.

• We should make the first High-Level Security Dialogue successful.

• We should strengthen the communication and cooperation between our government departments, political parties and legislative bodies.

• And China welcomes more royal visits to China.

“实”，就是要扎实推进双方务实合作。中英关系的提升不仅反映在定位和理念的升级上，更要体现在丰硕的务实合作成果上，产生更多合作“旗舰项目”和“惠民项目”。习主席访问期间，中英签署了包括核电在内的一系列合作协议，我们要落实好有关项目，争取早日启动、如期完工。我们要加强“三大发展战略对接”，即中国的“十三五”规划、“一带一路”倡议和“中国制造2025”，与英方的基础设施建设升级改造计划、“英国制造2050战略”和英格兰“北方经济中心”对接，进一步释放两国合作潜力，实现互利共赢。我们要加强两国在新能源、智慧城市、高端制造、生物医学等领域的合作。

The second word is “solid”.

This means that China and the UK should work for solid progress in result-based cooperation. The upgrading of China-UK ties should not be merely words and ideas. Upgrading should be sustained by solid, fruitful results. These include more flagship projects and real benefit for the people:

• During President Xi’s UK trip, our two countries signed a string of cooperation agreements - including the one on nuclear energy project. What we need to do next is to transfer our agreement from paper to building sites, that is, to get the projects started and completed on time.

• We should enhance synergy between our respective “three development strategies”, that is between China’s 13th Five-Year Plan, the Belt and Road Initiative and Made in China 2025, and Britain’s National Infrastructure Plan (NIP), UK Industry 2050 and the Northern Powerhouse. This will further tap our cooperation potential and bring both countries a win-win result.

• There are a wide range of fields where we could enhance cooperation. These include new energy, smart cities, hi-tech manufacturing, and biomedicine - just to name a few.

“广”，就是要不断拓宽合作领域的广度。中英关系是立体、多维、全方位的。我们要在保持和促进传统货物贸易的同时，扩大金融、会计、法律等服务贸易这一新增长极。我们要深化文化创意产业、人才教育培养、科研交流合作。我们要在全球经济金融治理、应对气候变化、打击野生动植物非法贸易、传染性疾病防治等全球问题上积极开展合作。我们应同国际社会一道，加强多边合作，通过外交和政治手段解决冲突、实现稳定，消除恐怖主义和极端主义滋生的土壤，共同应对好叙利亚、阿富汗、伊朗核和朝核等国际和地区热点问题。

The next word is “broad”.

This means we must keep broadening our cooperation. China-UK relationship should aim at multi-dimensional development:

• While maintaining and promoting the traditional trade in goods, China and the UK should create new growth by expanding the trade in services, such as finance, accounting and law.

• We can deepen communication and cooperation in creativity industry, education, and science and research.

• We can engage each other actively in the global economic and financial governance, on climate change, on combating illegal wildlife trade and in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases.

• Terrorism and extremism is a threat that impacts globally. We need to collaborate on eliminating the breeding grounds. We need to cooperate on resolving international and regional hotspot issues such as Syria, Afghanistan, Iran and the DPRK. On all these topics China and the UK can work together with the rest of international community to seek solutions and restore stability through stronger multilateral cooperation and by employing diplomatic and political means.

“新”，就是要不断敢为人先、争创“第一”。在西方国家中，英国在对华政策上经常捷足先登。仅就近年而言，英国是最早建立人民币离岸交易中心的西方国家，是首个发行人民币主权债券的西方国家，是首个申请加入亚投行和批准协议章程的西方大国，是最先向中国开放核电等基础设施建设市场的西方国家，是最早主张中欧商签自贸协议的国家，也是最先引进中国数学教师的西方国家。英国致力于成为中国在西方“最开放和最好的伙伴”，双方今后就要在合作中开创更多的先例，打造更多的“第一”。比如我们可以开拓安全执法领域和反腐败国际合作；开展抗生素耐药性联合科研；开辟国际产能合作，推动在第三方合作建设与经营，联手开拓国际市场。

The last word is “new”.

It means that China and the UK must dare to explore new areas and dare to be the first. Without doubt, the UK’s China policy is always more swift-footed than all the other western countries. I will only refer to some very recent examples:

• The UK was the first western country to establish offshore RMB trading centre and to issue RMB-denominated sovereign bond.

• The UK was the first major western nation to apply for membership of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and to ratify the Articles of Agreement of the AIIB.

• The UK was the first western country to open to China its infrastructure market, including its nuclear energy sector.

• The UK was the first country to advocate for a free trade agreement between China and the EU.

• The UK was the first country to have Chinese maths teachers in its local classrooms.

Last year the UK committed itself to becoming China’s best and the most open partner in the west. The commitment indicates that both countries should work together in the coming years to set more precedents and aim for more “firsts”. These are highly significant issues going forward:

• We can explore cooperation in security, law enforcement and anti-corruption.

• We can conduct joint research into antimicrobial resistance.

• We can initiate international cooperation on production capacity. This could be done by working with a third party on relocating production capacity and joining hands to tap third-party markets.

当然，即使是在“黄金时代”，中英关系也不可能一帆风顺，不可能没有任何问题和困难。在英国，一些人对发展中英关系、开展互利合作还存在一些疑虑，有些人的意识形态偏见还很深。这让我想起了中国古代的一个故事——愚公移山。故事主要讲的是愚公家门口有两座大山，挡住了其家人的出行，于是愚公决心带领家人并且一代又一代地努力，将大山搬走。愚公的精神感动了上苍，上苍派神仙将大山移走了。它告诉我们，无论什么困难的事情，只要我们有恒心、有毅力地做下去，就有可能成功。发展中英关系，既需要我们抓住机遇，乘势而上，也需要我们发扬愚公移山的精神，持久不懈地努力。

However, let me balance all these positives and introduce some words of caution. It is nothing but natural that even in the “Golden Era”, it is not always going to be plain sailing for China-UK ties. The wind will not always be favorable. In the UK, some people stay doubtful about growing relations and engaging in cooperation with China. Some people remain ideologically biased towards China.

Let me share with you an old Chinese fable. It is about an old man named Yugong. This story is literally about a man who ‘moves mountains’.

Yugong’s house is overshadowed by two big mountains. He is determined to remove them by digging away rocks and stones. He believes that if he commits his whole family and generations afterwards to this endeavor, even the greatest mountains can be ultimately flattened. The King of Gods is thus moved by Yugong’s willpower and sends a god to carry the two mountains away.

The story of Yugong is about the virtues of perseverance and willpower. Nothing is impossible as long as one keeps working hard with determination and perseverance.

I think what this story has revealed applies to China-UK relations. To grow our ties we should be mindful of two principles. First, we should be apt at seizing the opportunities of the times. Second, we must also persevere in face of potential difficulties lying ahead, just as Yugong is in facing two great mountains.

第二个问题——中国经济，同样最简练的概括是“光明前景”。

Now, I turn to the second topic - the Chinese economy.

The phrase that best summarises the Chinese economy is “promising prospects”.

2016年是中国“十三五”规划的元年，也是全面建成小康社会决胜阶段的开局之年。作为世界第二大经济体，中国经济走势受到大家关注，成为当下一个热门话题。2015年以来，虽然中国的一些经济指标、证券市场和人民币汇率有所波动，但中国经济的良好发展态势没有改变。

2016 is the very first year of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. This five-year period from 2016 to 2020 will be a crucial stage when China is to complete the building of a ‘moderately prosperous society’.

China is now the world’s second largest economy. Its economic performance is being closely watched and heatedly discussed. It is true that there were fluctuations last year in some of China’s economic indicators, in the stock market and in RMB exchange rate. However, careful analysis shows that the Chinese economy retained a sound growth momentum.

一是经济仍保持平稳较快发展，在合理区间运行。2015年前三季度，中国经济增速为6.9%，虽首次跌破7%，但这是在10万亿美元高基数之上的增长，增量相当于一个中等国家全年的GDP。这也是在世界经济增长放缓大背景下的增长，在主要经济体中仍名列前茅，对世界经济增长贡献率仍然高达30%。即使如各研究机构普遍预测的那样，2016年中国经济增速在6.5%左右，这仍是一个相当可观的增量。

First, the Chinese economy maintains steady and rapid growth and the performance is within a reasonable range.

The first three quarters of 2015 recorded an average growth rate of 6.9%. That is slightly down from 7% for the first time.

But, one must bear in mind that such a growth rate was achieved on the basis of a 10-trillion-dollar aggregate. That means an annual increment equivalent to the GDP of a medium-sized country. So even if China’s growth slows to around 6.5% this year, as some institutions predict, the increment would still be a considerable amount.

Moreover, the 6.9% growth was achieved against the background of a sluggish world economy. China remained fastest among major economies and contributed to as much as 30% of total world growth.

二是经济韧性好、潜力足、回旋余地大，仍处于可以大有可为的重要战略机遇期。中国物质基础雄厚、人力资本丰富、市场空间广阔、发展潜力巨大，正处于新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化同步发展进程中，将提供巨大而持久的发展能量。中国在适度扩大总需求的同时，着力加强供给侧结构性改革，创造性地适应中国经济新常态。同时，目前中国的财政赤字和政府债务余额均处于安全线内，远低于美、欧、日等主要经济体，为下一步宏观调控留下了空间，中国经济不会出现“硬着陆”。

Second, China’s economy is resilient with huge potential untapped. Massive and lasting driving force for China’s future growth comes from these factors:

• Abundant material and human resources.

• Huge market potential.

• And the ongoing process of new industrialisation, IT application, urbanisation and agricultural modernisation.

China’s economy still enjoys a window of strategic opportunities when much can be achieved:

• China is moderately expanding its overall demand.

• China is focusing on the “supply side structural reform”.

• And efforts are being made to better adapt to the economic “new normal”.

In addition, China’s deficit and government debt is secure and much lower than that of the US, Europe and Japan. This leaves room for further macro regulation so that a hard landing can be avoided.

三是经济持续增长有良好支撑基础和条件，新亮点、新动能正在加速孕育。消费驱动力增强，内需结构持续改善，互联网消费模式快速成长，仅在去年的“双十一”这一天，阿里巴巴旗下的天猫购物网站成交额就达到了912亿元人民币。中国推行的简政放权、优化服务等一系列体制改革措施正在释放新红利。大众创业、万众创新正在激发发展动能，推动技术、人才和资金等高端生产要素的聚集，催生一大批需求导向和大众参与的创新型企业。互联网金融、电子医疗等新产品、新业态、新商业模式方兴未艾。

Let me turn to a third factor of economic momentum. There are new growth points and new driving forces that have been created at a faster speed. These will sustain China’s growth in the long run.

The structure of domestic demand is gradually being improved. This is because consumption now plays a stronger role in boosting the economy. Internet consumption, in particular, is growing rapidly. For example, each year on the eleventh day of the eleventh month, China experiences a major online shopping spree. On 11 November 2015 the website Tmall run by Alibaba Group alone achieved 91.2 billion RMB in transaction volume. That was around 9.5 billion pounds.

A series of institutional reforms have ben carried out, including streamlining governance, improving government service and delegating central power to lower levels. These are releasing new boosts for the economy.

Entrepreneurship and innovation are strongly encouraged by the government nationwide and regarded as a new engine to drive the economy. This will help promote technology-intensive, talent-intensive and investment-intensive industries. This will also give rise to a boom of start-up enterprises that are creative and demand driven.

Moreover, internet finance, e-medical service and other new products and new forms of business are on the rise rapidly in China.

四是经济结构逐步调整优化，经济增长的质量、效益正稳步提升。服务业占比过半，产业结构持续升级。2015年前三季度，第三产业占GDP比重达51.4%，比上半年高出近两个百分点，首次突破50%大关；高技术产业增长10.4%，增速明显快于整体工业；全国城镇新增就业1066万人，提前完成全年目标；全国居民人均可支配收入实际增长7.7%，快于同期GDP增长。

A fourth aspect in economic momentum is progress in structural adjustment where the quality and efficiency of China’s economy has been steadily improved.

During the first three quarters of last year, the service sector accounted for 51.4% of total GDP. That was two percentage points higher than in the first six months. For the first time, more than half of China’s economic output is created by the service sector.

Meanwhile, the industrial structure was still undergoing further improvement. The hi-tech sector grew by 10.4%, much faster than the overall industrial growth. Over ten million new jobs were created in the first three quarters, hitting the 2015 annual target way ahead. The average disposable income increased by 7.7% which was higher than the GDP growth of the same period.

五是“十三五”规划和“五大发展理念”将引领中国经济未来五年乃至长远发展。不久前，中共中央提出了“十三五”规划的建议，提出了创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大发展理念。纲举则目张，“十三五”规划和“五大发展理念”，致力于破解难题，补上短板，增强动力，厚植优势，将指引中国发展新格局和拓展中国发展新面貌。

The fifth driver of economic momentum is the 13th Five-Year Plan. Its five development concepts will map out and drive continuous growth in the coming five years and beyond.

Last November, the Communist Party of China Central Committee adopted the proposal for the 13th Five-Year Plan. The key to this plan are five development concepts. They are:

• Innovation.

• Balanced growth.

• Green economy.

• Opening-up.

• And inclusive development.

As the ancient Chinese philosophy goes, once the lead rope of the fishing net is pulled out, all its meshes open; once the key link is grasped, everything else falls into place.

The 13th Five-Year Plan and the five development concepts are the keys to address the challenges China faces today. They will guide our way to make up for China’s shortcomings and consolidate its advantages in future development.

当然，我也注意到去年以来西方媒体上对中国经济不断有一些悲观论调，甚至有的学者又开始起劲唱衰中国。这让我想起另一个中国古代故事——“叶公好龙”。故事讲的是叶公喜欢龙，衣服上、酒器上和居室里到处都装饰着龙，他这样爱龙，被天上的真龙知道后，便从天上下降到叶公家里。叶公一看到真龙，转身就跑，吓得像丢了魂似的，惊恐万状。今天，其实大家都认同中国经济需要结构转型，需要转换增长动力，需要提升质量效益。但是，中国经济真开始进入新常态，适当放缓速度，经历一点转型阵痛，不少人就开始恐慌悲观了，就看空唱衰了，这岂非就是现代版的“叶公好龙”？

Since early last year, I have come across, from time to time, pessimistic views about China’s economy in the western media. Some pundits, again, started to predict doom and gloom in China’s future.

This reminds me of another Chinese fable: “Lord Ye who adores the dragon”.

Lord Ye is so fond of the dragon that he has dragon patterns on his garments, his wine vessels and everywhere in his room. Learning about this, the real dragon descends from heaven to pay him a visit. However, at the sight of a real dragon, the dragon lover is extremely terrified and turns tail and runs.

What this story says to us is that a true believer shouldn’t be scared. A true believer does not run away in face of what he or she professes to like or support.

Today everyone agrees that the Chinese economy needs structural reform. There is broad consensus that it needs a new growth engine and that it should focus on quality and efficiency. But when the new normal dawns, when growth slows down and the structural reform inflicts pain, some start to panic like Lord Ye.

总之，中国有信心、有能力保持经济的中高速增长，继续为世界经济的增长做出重要贡献，同时也希望世界客观、积极看待中国经济的转型升级过程。这一过程可能不是线性的，但是趋势向好；中国经济发展进程中短期会遇到瓶颈和困难，但终将取得突破和成功。

What I want to stress here is that China is both confident and capable of maintaining medium-to-high growth levels.

China will continue to make its due contribution to global growth and the world needs to view China’s economic transition and upgrading in an objective manner:

• China’s economic transition and upgrading will not be a linear movement, but the prevailing trend is for the better.

• In the process of China’s economic development, bottlenecks and difficulties are inevitable in a short-to-medium run. But, breakthroughs and success will ultimately be achieved.

今天，我既讲了“黄金时代”的中英关系，也讲了“前景光明”的中国经济；既讲了“愚公移山”的故事，也讲了“叶公好龙”的典故，希望大家在新的一年里，对中英关系和中国经济同样充满信心，与我们一道共同抓住机遇，促进中英关系持久、开放和共赢发展。

Today I shared with you my observations on the “Golden Era” of China-UK relationship and the “promising prospects” of the Chinese economy.

I also told stories of Yugong who removes mountains and Lord Ye who adores the dragon. I hope that I have managed to build some confidence in China-UK relationship and the Chinese economy in 2016.

Also, I am ready to work with all of you.

Together we can seize the opportunities and build a lasting, open and win-win relationship between China and the UK.

谢谢。

Thank you!