国务院新闻办新闻局副局长、新闻发言人邢慧娜:

Xing Huina:

各位媒体朋友们，大家下午好！欢迎出席国务院新闻办吹风会。今天上午我们举办发布会，发布了2021年前三季度经济运行的数据。今天下午，我们又举行吹风会，主要是对前三季度经济运行情况作进一步解读。今天的吹风会邀请到两位专家，他们是国务院参事室特约研究员姚景源先生，清华大学经济管理学院教授、清华大学中国经济社会数据研究中心主任许宪春先生。下面我们先请两位专家介绍一下他们对今年前三季度经济运行数据的一些看法，再回答大家感兴趣的问题。

Friends from the media, good afternoon. Welcome to this briefing held by the State Council Information Office (SCIO). This morning, we held a press conference to present China's economic data from the first three quarters of 2021. The briefing this afternoon will further analyze the economic performance in the first three quarters of the year. At this briefing, we are joined by two experts: Mr. Yao Jingyuan, special researcher of the Counsellors' Office of the State Council; and Mr. Xu Xianchun, professor at the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, and director of Tsinghua China Data Center. They will start by giving you their interpretations of the economic data and then take your questions.

首先，有请姚景源先生。

Next, I'll give the floor to Mr. Yao Jingyuan.

国务院参事室特约研究员姚景源:

Yao Jingyuan:

按照经济学原理讲，把握一个国家的总体经济状况就是要把握四大指标：第一是经济增长，第二是就业，第三是物价，第四是国际收支。

According to the principles of economics, a country's overall economic situation can be analyzed from four indicators: the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), job creation, consumer prices, and balance of payments.

第一是经济增长。从前三季度来看，经济同比增长9.8%。大家知道，李克强总理在年初两会《政府工作报告》上提出今年的增长目标是6%以上。IMF最新预测中国经济增速是8%。我估计今年全年可以实现8%左右，应当说，从增长速度看在我们预期范围之内。

The first indicator is GDP growth. China's GDP registered a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in the first three quarters of the year. As we know, according to the Government Work Report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang in March, China aimed to expand its economy by over 6% in 2021. The latest estimate by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also said that China's economy will grow by 8%. I estimate that annual growth in 2021 will reach about 8%. Therefore, the GDP growth rate is within our expectations.

第二是就业。前三季度新增就业1045万，实现了全年目标的95%。现在我们调查失业率，前三季度是5.2%，比去年同时期回落了0.5个百分点。今年总理在《政府工作报告》中提出的目标是5.5%，目前还是低于设定的预期目标。农民工就业情况也很好，前三季度新增加农民工就业351万人，大体上和2019年水平差不多了。

The second indicator is job creation. In the first three quarters of the year, China added 10.45 million new urban jobs in the first three quarters, achieving 95% of the annual target. The surveyed unemployment rate in the first three quarters stood at 5.2%, which was 0.5 percentage point lower than the same period last year, and also lower than the 5.5% target for this year put forward by Premier Li Keqiang in the Government Work Report this March. The employment of migrant workers was also very good. Some 3.51 million new migrant worker jobs were added in the first nine months of the year, close to the level in 2019.

第三是物价。年初和去年年底时，相当数量的同志担心今年通货膨胀。但是从今年实际看，1-9月份，CPI上涨0.6%，总理年初定的目标是3%，应当说物价总水平处在低位平稳。

The third indicator is consumer prices. Plenty of people were worried about inflation at the end of 2020 and the beginning of this year. Yet the actual situation is that, in the first nine months of 2021, the consumer price index (CPI) went up by 0.6% year on year. Compared with the 3% target set at the beginning of this year, China's consumer prices generally remained at a low level and stable.

第四是国际收支。关于中国的进出口贸易，相当数量的同志或者专家学者都没有预料到中国进出口贸易能保持这么好的增长状态。今年前三季度，进出口贸易总量283264亿元，达到历史较高点。再来看结构，出口同比增长22.7%，进口同比增长22.6%，进出口基本平衡。1-8月份实际利用外资7580亿元，同比超过20%以上。

The fourth indicator is balance of payments. Many experts and scholars did not expect that China's foreign trade could sustain such good growth momentum. In the first three quarters of the year, the total value of imports and exports was 28.33 trillion yuan, which is a comparatively high level historically speaking. Specifically, exports increased by 22.7% year on year, and imports went up by 22.6%, achieving a basic equilibrium. China's actual use of foreign capital amounted to 758 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year, up more than 20% year on year.

从这四大指标看，一是中国经济在整个设定的增长范围之内，二是在去年遇到如此前所未有的疫情冲击的背景下，中国经济现在正呈现恢复的基本态势。当然，从今年上半年和三季度的数据来看，中国经济也出现了一些值得我们关注的事情。比如，从二季度到三季度，经济有所下行。这个我们一会儿再谈。

Based on these four indicators, it is fair to say that China's economy has remained within the set growth range. In addition, against the backdrop of the pandemic and its unprecedented fallout, China's economy is currently recovering. Of course, there are some things worth noting seen from the economic data in the first half and third quarter of 2021. For example, there has been a downward movement in the economy from the second to the third quarter, which we will discuss later.

我先这么谈，就是告诉大家怎么把握整个中国经济，就是看这四大指标。四大指标告诉我们，中国经济目前处于一个良好的恢复状态。谢谢。

I'll stop here for now. My analysis aims to offer you a method to interpret China's economy, which is to analyze it based on these four indicators. These four major indicators show that China's economy is currently in a sound stage of recovery. Thank you.

邢慧娜:

Xing Huina:

谢谢姚景源先生。下面，有请许宪春先生作介绍。

Thank you, Mr. Yao. Next, Mr. Xu Xianchun will have the floor.

清华大学经济管理学院教授、清华大学中国经济社会数据研究中心主任许宪春:

Xu Xianchun:

谢谢主持人！各位记者，大家好！

Thank you, Ms. Xing. Friends from the media, good afternoon!

刚才姚总从四大宏观经济指标角度讲了如何看待今年前三季度的经济运行情况。我从三个角度简要地谈谈前三季度经济增长的一些特点。

Mr. Yao just elaborated on the economic performance of the first three quarters from the perspective of four major macro indicators. I will talk about characteristics of the economic growth of the first three quarters from the following three perspectives.

第一，从生产的角度，谈三个方面特点。一是经济同比增速逐季明显回落，但两年平均增速相对稳定，前三季度累计增速仍然较高，为实现全年经济增长目标奠定了基础。从今天上午国家统计局发布的数据可以看出，一季度GDP同比增长18.3%，二季度增长7.9%，三季度增长4.9%，所以季度同比增速逐季明显回落。但是从两年平均增速来看，一季度是5%，二季度5.5%，三季度4.9%，最高增速和最低增速之间的差距为0.6个百分点，相对来说比较平稳。如果从前三季度GDP9.8%的增长来看，增速还是比较高的。我从一个专家的角度作了一下推算，前三季度9.8%的增长决定了全年经济增长接近7%。所以，前三季度的经济增长为实现全年经济增长目标奠定了基础。二是第二产业增加值增速最快，对经济增长支撑作用明显。前三季度，第二产业增加值同比增长10.6%，增速为三次产业中最高。三是第三产业对经济增长的贡献最大，是前三季度经济增长的主要动力。前三季度，第三产业增加值占GDP的比重为54.8%，对经济增长的贡献达54.2%，比上半年提高1.2个百分点。

First, I will talk about three characteristics from the perspective of production. First, the year-on-year growth rate dropped quarter-by-quarter, but the average two-year growth rate remained relatively stable, and the economic growth of the first three quarters remained fast, which has laid a good foundation for achieving the year's target. According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics this morning, GDP of the first quarter increased by 18.3% year-on-year, by 7.9% in the second quarter, and by 4.9% in the third quarter. This indicates that the year-on-year growth rate has declined significantly. But in terms of the average two-year growth rates, namely 5% in the first quarter, 5.5% in the second quarter, and 4.9% in the third quarter, the trend remained relatively stable, with only a 0.6 percentage point gap between the highest and lowest. In addition, the GDP growth rate of 9.8% in the first three quarters was high. From my point of view as an expert, I can predict that the GDP growth of 9.8% is a decisive factor for achieving the year's target of about 7%, so the growth of the first nine months has laid a foundation for achieving the year's target. Second, the added value of the secondary industry was the fastest-growing area, which played a significant role in supporting economic growth. The added value of the secondary industry saw an increase of 10.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters, the fastest rate among the three industries. Third, the service sector made the biggest contribution to economic growth, and was the major driving force of economic growth of the first three quarters. In the first nine months, the added value of the service sector accounted for 54.8% of GDP, and the contribution of the sector to economic growth reached 54.2%, up 1.2 percentage points compared with the first half of the year.

第二，从需求的角度，也谈三个方面的特点。一是消费需求对经济增长起主要拉动作用。前三季度，消费需求对经济增长的贡献率是64.8%，比上半年提高了3.1个百分点。二是投资需求对经济增长的拉动作用有所减弱。前三季度，投资需求对经济增长的贡献是15.6%，比上半年减少了3.6个百分点。三是净出口需求表现较好，对经济增长起到重要的拉动作用。前三季度，净出口对经济增长的贡献率是19.5%，比上半年提高了0.4个百分点。

Second, I will also talk about three characteristics from the perspective of demand. First, consumption has played a leading role in driving economic growth. In the first nine months, the contribution of consumption to economic growth reached 64.8%, up 3.1 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Second, the role of investment in driving economic growth weakened. In the first nine months, the contribution of investment to economic growth reached 15.6%, down 3.6 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Third, net export demand showed a good momentum and played an important role in driving economic growth. In the first nine months, the contribution of net exports to economic growth reached 19.5%, up 0.4 percentage point compared with the first half of the year.

第三，新经济新动能继续保持快速增长，对经济增长起到重要的支撑作用。其中表现突出的几个方面：一是高技术制造业继续保持快速增长。前三季度，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长20.1%，两年平均增长12.8%，比全部规模以上工业增加值增速分别快了8.3和6.4个百分点。二是高技术服务业继续保持快速增长。前三季度，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值同比增长19.3%，两年平均增长是17.6%，分别高于服务业增加值9.8和12.7个百分点。三是高技术产业投资保持快速增长。前三季度，高技术产业投资同比增长18.7%，两年平均增长13.8%，分别高于固定资产投资（不含农户）11.4和10个百分点。

Third, new economic forms and new driving forces continued to grow fast. This provided important support for economic growth. The highlights of their robust growth are as follows. First, the high-tech manufacturing sector continued to grow fast. The value added of high-tech manufacturing went up by 20.1% year-on-year, with an average two-year growth of 12.8%, 8.3 percentage points and 6.4 percentage points higher respectively than that of large industrial enterprises as a whole. Second, the high-tech service sector continued to see fast growth. The added value of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 19.3%, with an average two-year growth of 17.6%, 9.8 percentage points and 12.7 percentage points higher respectively than that of the service sector. Third, investment in the high-tech industries continued to grow fast. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 18.7% year-on-year, with an average two-year growth of 13.8%, 11.4 percentage points and 10 percentage points higher respectively than that of investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households).

以上，我简单从三个角度归纳了经济增长的一些特点。谢谢！

I have summarized the characteristics of economic growth from the above-mentioned three perspectives. Thank you.

邢慧娜:

Xing Huina:

谢谢两位专家。现在大家可以开始提问，提问之前请通报一下所在的新闻机构。

Thank you. Now the floor is open to questions, please identify your media outlet before raising questions.

中央广播电视总台央视记者:

CCTV:

三季度主要经济指标比上半年都明显放缓，是否意味着我国经济恢复的态势发生改变了，经济动能是否减弱？刚刚您也提到IMF已经下调了我国全年经济增速的预期，现在国内国外的形势比较严峻，怎么看待四季度整个经济增长的压力？谢谢。

Major economic indicators in the third quarter slowed down significantly compared with those in the first half of the year. Does this mean that China's economic recovery trend has changed, and economic momentum has weakened? Just now, you mentioned that the IMF has lowered China's economic growth forecast for the year. The current situation worldwide is grave. How do you view the pressure on China's economic growth in the fourth quarter? Thank you.

姚景源:

Yao Jingyuan:

中国经济从二季度到三季度，我们可以看出是一种回落状态。首先，现在不单单是中国经济从二季度到三季度出现回落，是整个世界经济发展复苏都处在缓慢回落状态。所以IMF不但把中国由8.1%调到8.0%，还把世界经济的增长率由5%调到4.9%，往下调了0.1%。所以，现在看三季度经济下行是全世界普遍的现象。

China's economic growth in the third quarter slowed from that in the second quarter of the year. First, we should see that it's not only the case for China. The global economic growth and recovery weakened on the whole. That's why the IMF lowered China's growth rate from 8.1% to 8%, and cut the world's growth rate by a 0.1% from 5% to 4.9%. So, the economic slowdown in the third quarter is a universal phenomenon around the world.

我这里主要还是讲中国，为什么我们经济出现这种下行呢？我觉得，一是国际市场上大宗商品价格上涨。大家知道，由于世界疫情的影响，导致供需错配，再加上流动性过于宽松，所以今年以来国际市场上大宗原材料价格上涨幅度非常高，包括石油、天然气、有色金属、黑色金属、煤炭等，整个国际市场上价格都是大幅度上涨。中国是世界上第一的商品进出口大国，所以国际市场上原材料大宗商品价格上涨，必然要通过进口传导到我们国内，所以这是国际影响。

Here I'd like to focus on China. Why did China's economy slow down? First, it is a result of rising commodity prices on international markets. As we know, due to the supply and demand mismatch as a result of the pandemic, and excess liquidity, the prices of raw materials including oil, natural gas, non-ferrous metals, ferrous metals and coal have risen sharply on the international markets this year. China is the biggest importer and exporter of commodities in the world, and the rise in the prices of raw material commodities is bound to be transmitted to China through imports. This is the main international impact on China's economy.

二是我们自身阶段性的原因。这段时间我们分析得越来越清晰，所谓阶段性原因，比如说疫情的反复和汛情的严峻。大家知道，今年疫情呈现散发状态，比如广东、江苏这些经济大省，经济大省受到的冲击大，对经济的影响就大。还有汛情，河南也是经济大省，遭受的汛情前所未有，所以整个河南的经济受到了冲击。前段时间，山西水灾导致60所煤矿被迫停产，煤的产量一下子就减少了。所以，这也是有一些阶段性的原因。还有，如果你要做一些具体的分析，这种阶段性的原因，不是我们中国经济增长内生的动力不足。对于中国经济增长来讲，空间还是非常大。今天就有人问我，下行的趋势能不能稳住？我认为没有问题。现在看，我们可以采取一系列的政策措施来解决阶段性问题。比如煤的问题，由于煤产量减少，所以煤价上涨，导致发电亏损，发电亏损导致供电减少，一些省就出现拉闸限电的现象。煤的问题能不能解决？尽快恢复由于水灾造成影响的煤炭企业的生产，内蒙古地区的72家煤炭等各地煤炭企业也开始进行生产。此外，加大煤炭进口力度。李克强总理前段时间和蒙古的总理通话，进一步推动中蒙两国煤炭方面的贸易。中国22亿千瓦的发电能力是世界第一，所以，缺煤是阶段性、短期性的问题，我们是可以得到解决的。

Second, it is a result of China's own situation at the current stage. We are getting a clearer picture of the reasons leading to the current downtrend, such as the epidemic and severe floods. As we know, several places in China reported sporadic cases, including major economic provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu. The greater the impact on these provinces, the more the Chinese economy is affected. There are also impacts from floods. Henan is also a major economic province, and its economy was hit hard by unprecedented floods. The recent floods in Shanxi province forced 60 local coalmines to stop production, and the coal output dropped sharply. These are periodic factors. Moreover, if more detailed analysis is made, you will find that the current downtrend is not resulted from the lack of an inherent impetus driving growth. There is much room for Chinese economic growth. Someone asked me today if the downward trend could be changed. My answer is in the affirmative. We can adopt a series of policy measures to resolve these issues for the current stage. Take the coal supply shortage problem as an example. Coal prices rose due to the decline in coal production, which in turn led to losses in power generation, followed by decrease in power supply. Hence, power rationing happened in some provinces. Can the coal issue be solved? We will resume the production of coal mines affected by floods as soon as possible. A total of 72 coal companies in Inner Mongolia have restarted production. We will also increase coal imports. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang recently talked to Mongolian Prime Minister via video link to further promote the coal trading between the two countries. China tops the world with an installed capacity of power generation of 2,200 gigawatts. Thus, the coal shortage is a short-term problem and we can solve it.

从二季度到三季度的经济回落，一是要更多地看到它是短期因素。这种阶段性、短期性因素和原有结构性、周期性问题叠加在一起，显得问题更为复杂。所以要处理好阶段性矛盾、临时性问题，还得着力在结构改革、结构优化以及逆周期调节上下更大的气力。总之，中国经济仍然保持较好的内生动力，这种回落的状态，我们可以把它稳住。

We need to give more consideration to these short-term factors for the slowdown of China's economic growth in the third quarter from the second quarter. These short-term factors of the current period, overlapped with China's structural and periodic problems, made the issue more complicated. Therefore, in order to deal with the temporary problems, we need to step up efforts in structural reform to optimize the economic structure, and make counter-cyclical adjustment. In brief, China's economy still sustains a good inherent impetus, and we are able to reverse the slowdown.

许宪春:

Xu Xianchun:

三季度经济增速回落有多种因素。有偶发性因素，还有结构性因素，叠加在一起，所以大家感到经济下行的压力比较大。但是，应该把偶发性因素和结构性因素区分开来。偶发性因素，比如煤炭供应不足、汛情等。这些偶发性因素应该是比较容易解决的。

In the third quarter, there were multiple factors that contributed to the declining economic growth rate, including incidental factors and structural factors. These factors were superimposed on each other, so it made some people feel that the downward pressure on the economy is relatively high. However, we should distinguish between incidental factors and structural factors. Incidental factors, such as coal shortages and floods, are relatively easy to resolve.

中国经济发展是非常有韧性的，因为我们有庞大的市场，我们的生产能力也比较强。针对三季度经济增速的下行，四季度经济增长怎么看？我觉得可以从两个方面看。一方面，经济下行的压力是存在的。一是从基数角度看，去年的经济增长前低后高，一季度GDP下降6.8%，二季度增长3.2%，三季度增长4.9%，四季度增长6.5%，增速逐季回升，四季度GDP增速比较高了。我认为6.5%的增长已经超过当前潜在增速了，这对今年四季度的经济增长构成压力。二是其他一些下行因素，例如投资，尤其是基础设施投资存在一定的下行压力。另一方面也有许多支撑因素；比如，从消费角度看，前三季度全国居民人均消费支出实际增长15.1%，两年平均实际增长3.7%。其中两年平均增速比上半年回升0.5个百分点。同时，就业形势总体稳定；居民收入增长也比较稳定。在三大经济主体中，居民收入增长是比较稳定的。疫情防控形势总体也是稳定的，居民的消费能力和消费意愿有望继续保持回升。

China's economic development is very resilient, because we have a huge market and relatively strong production capacity. Given the declining growth rate in the third quarter, what sort of economic growth should we expect in the fourth quarter? I think we could analyze this from two sides. On the one hand, pressure on the economy exists. First, in terms of the base number, last year's economic growth went from low to high. GDP fell by 6.8% in the first quarter, but grew up by 3.2% in the second quarter, 4.9% in the third quarter, and 6.5% in the fourth quarter. The growth rate picked up quarter by quarter, and the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was relatively high. I think the 6.5% growth rate has already exceeded the current potential growth rate, which will put pressure on economic growth in the fourth quarter of this year. Besides, some downward factors, such as investment, and specifically infrastructure investment, may slow down. On the other hand, there are also many supporting factors. For example, when it comes to consumption, the national per capita consumption expenditure in the first three quarters actually increased by 15.1%, and the average actual growth over two years was 3.7%. Among them, the two-year average growth rate rebounded 0.5 percentage point from the first half of the year. At the same time, employment is generally stable, and the growth of residents' income is also relatively stable. Among three major economic entities, residents see a relatively stable growth in income. The prevention and control of COVID-19 are stable. Residents' consumption capacity and willingness to spend money are also expected to continue to pick up.

7月30日，中央政治局会议指出，财政政策将在稳增长中担当主力。主要抓手，有“十四五”规划重大工程项目。四季度专项债还有1万亿额度待发，有可能对基础设施投资起到一定的支撑作用。央行要求下半年货币政策坚持“稳字当头”，保持流动性合理充裕，引导贷款合理增长。这将促进实体经济发展。制造业投资也可能会进一步回升。从进出口来看，我国产业体系完整、疫情防控形势较好等有利条件，还在不断吸引国外的进口商，四季度净出口需求仍可能保持对经济增长的重要拉动作用。

On July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting and pointed out that fiscal policy will play a major role in stabilizing growth. The key driver will be the major projects listed in the 14th Five-Year Plan. There are still 1 trillion yuan of special bonds to be issued in the fourth quarter, which may support infrastructure investment to some extent. The central bank requires monetary policy to remain stable, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and guide the reasonable growth of loans in the second half of the year. It's clear that the monetary policy will remain stable and moderately relaxed, which will promote the development of the real economy. Manufacturing investment may also pick up further. From the import and export perspective, China's favorable conditions, such as a complete industrial system and satisfactory epidemic prevention and control, are still attracting foreign importers. Net export demand in the fourth quarter could still be a key driver for economic growth.

综合来看，尽管四季度经济增长存在下行压力，但是仍然能够保持比较稳定的增长态势。

Generally speaking, despite the downward pressure, the economy is still able to maintain a relatively stable growth in the fourth quarter.

澎湃新闻记者:

ThePaper.cn:

从调查失业率和农民工数据看，三季度就业形势保持平稳，但经济形势有所放缓。请问您怎么看两者的不一致？在经济增长压力加大的背景下，就业市场是否会面临着较大挑战？谢谢。

According to data from the survey on unemployment rates and migrant workers, employment remained stable in the third quarter, but the economic situation has slowed down. What do you think of the inconsistency between the two? In the background of increasing pressure on economic growth, will the employment market face more challenges? Thank you.

姚景源:

Yao Jingyuan:

刚才我们讲中国的就业，前三季度城镇新增就业完成了全年目标的95%，调查失业率是5.2%，控制在5.5%的预期目标内。失业率的指标，过去用的是登记失业率，就是你失业了，到政府有关部门去登记，把你列入进来计算出失业率。这个登记失业率，如果有人失业了没去登记，这个数据准不准？现在国家统计局开展劳动力调查，推算全国城镇调查失业率，按照的是国际标准。第一条，调查期间没有工作；第二条，是否具备工作能力；第三条最重要，是否在以各种方式谋求工作而又没有工作。这是失业人员的国际标准。所以按照这个标准来的话，调查失业率是科学可信的。从调查失业率来看，前三季度就业形势基本稳定，特别是9月份的调查失业率又进一步下降。你刚才问经济在下行，为什么就业还保持这么好的状态。

Just now, we talked about employment in China. In the first three quarters, new urban jobs completed 95% of the annual target. The surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, which fell within the expected target of 5.5%. In the past, we calculated unemployment rate on the basis of registered unemployment rate. That means if you are unemployed and go to the relevant government department to get registered, you will be included in the unemployment calculation. But if someone is unemployed and fails to register, is the calculation going to be accurate? Now the National Bureau of Statistics conducts labor force surveys to estimate the nationwide unemployment rate in cities and towns in accordance with international standards and criteria. The first of the criteria is that an individual doesn't have a job during the survey. The second is whether a person has the ability to work. The third and the most important is whether a person is actively seeking a job but fails to get one. These are the international standards for the unemployed population, and the survey conducted on this basis must be scientific and credible. The surveyed unemployment rates show that employment in the first three quarters was basically stable, and unemployment rate in September actually fell. You just asked why employment can be strong when the economy has slowed down.

首先，不知道你有没有注意，按照宏观经济学的基本原理来讲，一个国家的宏观调控就是货币政策和财政政策，但是我国多了一个就业优先政策，中国宏观调控实际上是三大政策。所以，党中央、国务院多次强调，就业是民生之本，整个经济工作要围绕着民生改善，围绕着就业。所以，我们采取了一系列措施稳定就业，鼓励企业增加就业岗位。现在看，就业优先政策在积极发挥作用。

First, I wonder if you noticed that according to the basic principles of macroeconomics, macro regulation comprises monetary policy and fiscal policy, however, in China, it also includes pro-employment policy. China's macro regulation actually consists of three policies. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the State Council have emphasized many times that employment is the foundation of people's livelihood and economic work should focus on improving people's livelihood and boosting employment. We have adopted a number of measures to stabilize employment and encourage enterprises to increase jobs. The pro-employment policy plays an active role.

第二，还是回到我刚才讲的，经济出现回落并不意味着我国经济的内生动力不足，我国的内生动力依然强劲。所以企业看到了这一点，认为这些是阶段性、短期性、偶然性问题，对经济的内生动力坚信不疑，响应国家的政策，稳定就业岗位。从这个角度来说，稳定了大家对经济增长的预期，才会有这样的效果。

Second, returning to what I was saying earlier, the economic downturn does not mean that the endogenous power of China's economy is insufficient. China's endogenous power is still strong. Enterprises realize this and thought it was temporary, short-term and accidental. They firmly believe in the endogenous power of China's economy. In accordance with national policies, they have made efforts to stabilize employment. We have achieved a good effect because we stabilized people's expectations for economic growth.

中国新闻社记者:

China News Service:

我的问题跟PPI相关。今年以来，全球大宗商品价格过快上涨，9月份我国PPI也创下了新高。近几年也发现有一个特点，就是工业生产者购进价格和出厂价格严重倒挂。这个原因是什么？您怎么看这方面对经济的影响？谢谢。

My question is about PPI. Since this year, global commodity prices have risen overly quick. China's PPI set a new record high in September. In recent years, we have discovered a trend of the Purchasing Price Index of Raw Material (PPIRM) and the PPI being seriously inverted. What is the reason behind this? What do you think the impact of this will be on the economy? Thank you.

姚景源:

Yao Jingyuan:

我刚才讲过，大宗原材料价格上涨，你刚才说9月份PPI是10.7%，10.7%是什么概念呢？说起来好像真的是很严重，是从1995年以来的最高点。当然原因我刚才说了，一是世界上大宗原材料价格上涨，这是最根本的。我国是进出口大国，所以必然会传导到国内。现在PPI上涨主要集中在上游产业，比如煤炭、石油、天然气、有色金属、黑色金属，上游大宗商品原材料涨幅过高过快。你刚才讲了，这样会导致企业价格出现倒挂，就是下游加工企业被迫要接受上游涨幅过高过快的价格。下游生产加工企业目前面对的是什么状况呢？从总体上看，应当说这个市场还是产能过剩，在一些领域，还是买方市场，所以企业不可能把上游原材料价格上涨通过终端产品转移到市场中去，因为它要转移就要涨价，它可能就要丧失市场。为了竞争需要，它又不能涨，这其实在一定程度上也可以推动它通过加强管理、技术进步，来消化上游原材料价格的上涨。但是回过头来看，上游PPI涨幅这么快、这么高，你让企业短时间内都消化了，也难以做到。所以，确实给下游企业带来了生产经营的压力。这一点也是我们二季度到三季度经济下行的一个结构性问题。

As I mentioned earlier, the prices of bulk raw materials are rising. You mentioned that the PPI in September was up by 10.7%. What does this mean? It seemed very serious as it was a record high since 1995. I have explained that this is because commodity prices are rising worldwide. That is the most fundamental reason. China is a big importer and exporter, so it is bound to be transmitted to China. The industries seeing rising PPI are mainly upstream industries, such as coal, oil, natural gas, non-ferrous metals and ferrous metals. The upstream commodity prices are rising overly high and fast. You mentioned that it would lead to PPIRM and PPI being inverted. In other words, the downstream manufacturers are being forced to accept the prices that are rising overly high and fast. What situation do downstream manufacturers face currently? Generally speaking, there is still overcapacity in the market. In certain sectors, it is still buyers' market. Therefore, it is impossible for enterprises to pass on the higher prices of bulk raw materials to the market through end products, because if they do so, they may lose the market as the result of increased prices. In order to compete, they cannot raise their prices. However, this situation may somehow push them to strengthen management and push for technological progress in order to absorb the increased prices of upstream raw materials . But on the other hand, the PPI of upstream industries are rising so high and fast, so it is hard for enterprises to absorb it all in a short time. And this indeed make the downstream enterprises feel pressured when running their business. This was a structural issue we faced as China's economy went downward from the second quarter to the third quarter.

那么现在怎么办呢？首先，对于上游这种大宗原材料产品要采取保供稳价的措施。现在看，有一些措施在某些领域基本见效了，比如铜，二季度历史价格最高，现在铜价、有色金属价格涨幅有所回落，钢材价格涨幅也有所回落。如果我们下大气力扎扎实实地把保供稳价作为四季度至关重要的宏观政策，我们完全可以帮助企业战胜困难。除此之外，我主张我们还能有一些新的更好的政策措施，一方面对上游原材料价格上涨状况保供稳价，另一方面对下游加工企业采取一些切实可行的政策措施，帮助他们战胜困难。谢谢。

So, what should we do now? First, we should ensure the supply and stable prices of upstream commodities. Some measures have been effective in certain sectors, such as with copper, which reached its highest-ever price in the second quarter. But, the price rises for copper, nonferrous metal and steel have now dropped. If we make great, solid efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices as one of the key macro policies in the fourth quarter, we surely can help enterprises overcome the difficulties. In addition, I think we can also introduce some better measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices of upstream commodities and help downstream manufacturers overcoming difficulties with practical policies and measures. Thank you.

封面新闻记者:

Cover News:

我也想问一个跟就业有关的问题。请问您如何看待前三季度的就业数据？另外，我们注意到16-24岁就业人员的失业率虽然有所下降，而且连续几个月下降，但目前仍然处于一个比较高的水平，请问原因是什么？未来一段时间内能否有所缓解？谢谢。

My question is regarding employment as well. What are your thoughts on the employment data in the first three quarters of this year? In addition, the unemployment rates of people aged 16-24 are going down month by month, but the rate is still at a high level — why is that? Will this situation improve in the future? Thank you.

姚景源:

Yao Jingyuan:

就业问题的难度在哪呢？现在存在招工难和就业难并存的现象。我在长三角和珠三角地区调研，发现相当多的企业现在是招工难，招不到工人。但是另一方面，年轻人的失业率又比较高。刚才我讲了，现在全国城镇调查失业率是5.2%，16-24岁青年人失业率明显高于总体水平。为什么呢？一个原因是今年有高校毕业生909万，去年是874万，高校毕业生数量就比去年多了30万，这不是个小数。还有一个原因，正常年份时应届毕业生中有相当数量的孩子要到国外留学，但是今年很少能够出去留学，这些孩子留在国内，其中有相当部分也要进到就业领域。所以，今年年轻人就业压力非常大。当然，就业也有结构问题，年轻人更多地希望到现代服务业相关行业的岗位上去工作，不愿意去制造业生产线，导致制造业企业不好招人。所以综合以上原因，出现了年轻人失业率高于全社会平均水平的情况。

Where is the difficulty for employment? At present, there is a coexistence of recruitment difficulty and employment difficulty. I performed research in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta and found that quite a few companies are now having difficulty recruiting new workers. On the other hand, the unemployment rate for young people is relatively high. As I mentioned earlier, China's surveyed urban unemployment rate is 5.2%, and the unemployment rate among those aged 16-24 is significantly higher than the overall level. One reason is that there are 9.09 million college graduates this year, over 300,000 more than last year's figure of 8.74 million. This is not a small number. There is another reason: In a normal year, a considerable number of fresh graduates will study abroad, but this year they are mostly unable to study abroad. These students are now staying in the country, and a considerable number of them will look to gain employment. Therefore, the employment pressure for young people this year is very high. Of course, there are also structural problems in employment. More young people hope to find jobs in the modern services industry and are unwilling to work on production lines, which makes it difficult for manufacturing companies to recruit people. Therefore, combining the above reasons, a situation has occurred where the youth unemployment rate is higher than the average unemployment across society.

党中央、国务院已经明确地把解决大学生就业作为重点工作，教育部等相关部门在这些方面采取了很多措施，我想今后还会陆续出台一些政策。下阶段，在实现第二个百年目标过程中，我国要把创新作为第一驱动力，而人才是第一资源。青年人才是创新主体，所以要通过结构调整、结构优化，为大学毕业生提供更多更好的理想岗位，这样能够有利于解决青年大学生就业问题。

The CPC Central Committee and the State Council have clearly set the employment of college students as a key task. The Ministry of Education and other relevant departments have adopted many measures in relevant aspects. I think some policies will also be introduced in the future. Next, in the process of achieving the second centenary goal, China will take innovation as its primary driving force, and talented personnel are the primary resources. Talented young people are the main body of innovation, so it is necessary to provide more desirable positions for college graduates through structural adjustment and optimization, which can help solve the employment problem for them.

海报新闻记者:

The Poster News APP:

最近一段时间，能耗双控来势汹汹，叠加电力供应紧张的因素，您认为对中国经济的影响是什么？再一个问题，有评论认为，能耗双控将给生产和生活带来较大的影响，一方面是推动上游价格导致PPI居高，另一方面存在着上游对下游的利润挤压，国企挤压民企的问题，您怎么看待这个问题？谢谢。

Recently, China has been strengthening dual control of total energy consumption and energy intensity, and witnessing power supply shortages. How do you think these factors stand to impact China's economy? Another question: Some commentators believe that the dual control policy will have a greater impact on production and people's lives – on the one hand, rising upstream prices lead to high PPI; on the other, the upstream profit is squeezing the downstream takings, and state-owned enterprises are squeezing against private enterprises. What do you make of this problem? Thank you.

姚景源:

Yao Jingyuan:

首先，能耗“双限”我觉得没错。绿色发展是我们非常重要的科学发展路径。我们一定要坚定不移地坚持五大发展理念，也就是创新、绿色、协调、开放、共享。促进碳达峰、碳中和，这是一个负责任大国向世界的承诺，也是构建人类命运共同体我们所做的贡献。

First of all, I think the dual control policy is a correct move. Green development is our very important path for scientific development. We must unswervingly adhere to the five development concepts, namely innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing. Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is a solemn commitment made by China as a responsible major country, and it is also our contribution to building a community with a shared future for mankind.

我们生活在北京，北京这几年最大的成就是什么呢？我个人认为，不是盖了多少楼，修了多少路，GDP增长多少，而是环境的变化。就比如从我们家看，原来使用好几台空气净化器。这两年，特别是今年，一次也没有使用过，这就反映出来空气变好了，天蓝地绿，这是我们贯彻新发展理念的成果。

We live in Beijing – what have Beijing's greatest achievements been in recent years? I personally believe that it is not how many buildings have been built, how many roads have been built, or how much the GDP has grown, but the changes in the environment. For example, in my home, we previously used several air purifiers. But in the past two years, especially this year, we haven't used our air purifiers once. This reflects how the air has improved; the sky is blue, and the land is green. This is the result of our implementation of new development concepts.

当然，在发展经济中，我们也确实需要兼顾一些问题，比如怎样处理好阶段性的任务和长远目标的关系，要保持一定的发展速度，应当从哪些方面去考虑？举个例子，发展经济就像开汽车一样，首先是把好方向盘，方向盘往哪儿开？要往第二个百年目标、往高质量发展的方向开，具体操作上，一个是刹车，一个是油门。别小看这两件事，我觉得相当重要。所以，宏观调控是一门艺术。比如，在具体实施过程中，存在的一些比如“运动式减排”问题，就是没有处理好经济稳增长与调结构、转型升级的关系，没有全面理解推动高质量发展是个过程。所以从这个角度来说，我们下一步要坚持绿色发展理念，这个指导思想不能变，但是在这个过程当中，要处理好稳增长与调结构、转方式的关系，以及高质量发展中的一些具体问题。

Of course, when growing the economy, we need to take some issues into account. For example, how to deal with the relationship between phased tasks and long-term goals, and which aspects should be considered to maintain a certain development speed? For example, growing the economy is like driving a car. The first step is to control the vehicle well. Where should the steering wheel turn toward? It should go toward the second centenary goal, toward the direction of high-quality development, and in terms of specific operations, one is the brake, and the other is the accelerator. Don't underestimate these two things – I think they are quite important. Therefore, macro-control is an art. For example, in the specific implementation process, some problems such as "campaign-style carbon reduction" do exist. These problems indicate that the relationship between steady economic growth and structural adjustment, transformation, and upgrading is not handled properly, and it is not fully understood that promoting high-quality development is a process. From this perspective, we must adhere to the green development concept in the next step. This guiding concept cannot be changed, but in the implementation process, we must well handle the relationship between ensuring steady growth and transforming the growth model and making structural adjustments, as well as some specific problems that occur in promoting high-quality development.

党中央、国务院已经进行了部署，再加上总结以往宏观调控的经验和教训，我们完全可以处理好这一系列问题。所以从这个角度来说，坚持绿色发展，并用辩证的思维来处理好当下的一些阶段性发展问题，中国经济保持平稳健康增长是没有问题的。

As the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have already made arrangements, and we have also summed up the experience and lessons of previous macro-controls, we can absolutely deal with this series of problems well. From this perspective, as we adhere to green development and use dialectical thinking to handle some of the current development issues, there will be no problem in maintaining steady and healthy growth of the Chinese economy.

中国日报记者:

China Daily:

许宪春老师，今年以来，中国经济一直在一个比较稳定的恢复状态当中，我们也能看到一些工业新产品和外贸领域消费品增长态势都很可观。今天早上统计局三季度数据也能看得出来，创新投入和新能源汽车这样一些产业同比增长也非常可观。请您评价一下这些产业在经济发展当中怎么看待它们所发挥的作用。您刚才也提到，三四季度投资局面会面临一定的压力，下一步有什么建议去很好地促进这些产业在经济增长中作出更大的贡献？谢谢。

Mr Xu, China's economy has been recovering steadily this year. We have also seen considerable growth in some new industrial products and consumer goods in foreign trade. It can also be seen from the third-quarter data from the National Bureau of Statistics this morning that the year-on-year growth of some industries such as innovation investment and new energy vehicles has also been considerable. Please comment on how you see the role these industries play in economic development. As you mentioned just now, the investment situation will face some pressure in the third and fourth quarters. What are your suggestions for the next step to encourage these industries to make greater contributions to economic growth? Thank you.

许宪春:

Xu Xianchun:

好的，谢谢你的提问。确实，虽然经济的下行压力比较大，但是一些工业新产品、外贸领域的新业态新模式继续保持着比较快的增长态势。

Thanks for your question. Indeed, despite considerable downward pressure on the economy, some new industrial products and new forms and models of business in the field of foreign trade continue to maintain relatively rapid growth.

工业新产品方面。在5G建设加速、消费电子及汽车电子需求增长、工业自动化率提高等因素的带动下，新产品产量保持快速增长。今天上午国家统计局新闻发言人已经讲过了，前三季度，新能源汽车、工业机器人、集成电路产量同比分别增长172.5%、57.8%、43.1%，两年平均增速都超过了28%。外贸领域的新业态新模式方面。一些政策措施落地见效。以跨境电商为代表的外贸新业态新模式，为外贸发展注入了新动能。从海关总署发布的数据看，今年前三季度，我国跨境电商进出口增长20.1%，市场采购出口增长37.7%。

In terms of new industrial products, driven by the acceleration of 5G construction, the growth of consumer electronics and automotive electronics demand, the improvement of industrial automation, and other factors, the output of new products maintained rapid growth. This morning, the spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics said that in the first three quarters, the output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and integrated circuits increased by 172.5%, 57.8%, and 43.1%, respectively, year-on-year, with an average growth rate of more than 28% in both years. In terms of new business forms and models in the field of foreign trade, some policies and measures have been implemented and are effective. New forms and models of foreign trade, represented by cross-border e-commerce, have injected new momentum into foreign trade. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first three quarters of this year, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports increased by 20.1%, and market procurement exports increased by 37.7%.

近些年来，新经济新动能对经济增长都起到了重要的带动作用。在新冠疫情之前，经济增速已经呈现出回落的走势，但是新经济新动能保持较快增长，对抑制经济增速回落起到了重要作用。在疫情严重爆发期间，经济下降，但是新经济新动能仍然保持较快增长。去年一季度GDP下降6.8%，但是信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值增长13.2%，拉动GDP增长0.6个百分点，对于减缓经济下降幅度起到了重要作用。在经济恢复时期，新经济新动能也起到重要的作用。今年前三季度，规模以上高技术制造业增加值增长20.1%，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值增长19.3%，都表现出快速增长。实物商品网上零售额也保持较快增长。所以，新经济新动能对经济增长起到重要的作用。

In recent years, new economy drivers have played important roles in driving economic growth. Before the COVID-19 outbreak, economic growth showed a downward trend, but the rapid growth of new economy drivers played an important role in curbing the slowdown. During the serious outbreak of the epidemic, the economy declined, but new economy drivers still maintained rapid growth. The country's GDP fell by 6.8% in the first quarter of last year. However, the added value of information transmission, software, and information technology services increased by 13.2%, contributing 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth and playing an important role in slowing down the economic decline. New economy drivers have also played important parts in promoting economic recovery. In the first three quarters of this year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 20.1%, and the added value of information transmission, software, and information technology services increased by 19.3%. Online retail sales of physical goods also maintained rapid growth. Therefore, new economy drivers have played important roles in economic growth.

下一步，可以考虑从多方面促进新经济新动能发展：

Going forward, we can consider promoting the development of new economy drivers in various ways.

一是积极推动企业数字化转型。我带领清华大学中国经济社会数据研究中心的研究团队正在研究新经济新动能问题。我们已经调研了13个省市的70多家新经济企业。我们深切地感受到，数字化转型对企业的生存和发展的重要意义。凡是数字化转型成功的企业，从产品的研发设计、生产经营、销售，到售后管理，都实现了数字化，大幅度提高企业适应市场的能力、生产经营效率，降低了生产经营成本。数字化转型不成功，或者刚刚起步的企业，则面临着一系列的困难和问题。所以，我们认为，数字化转型是非常重要的。习近平总书记高度重视数字化转型，他指出，“世界经济数字化转型是大势所趋，新的工业革命将深刻重塑人类社会”。数字化转型非常重要，要积极推动企业数字化转型。

First, we will actively promote the digital transformation of enterprises. I am leading a research team at the Tsinghua China Data Center to study new economy drivers. We have surveyed more than 70 enterprises of new business forms and models in 13 provinces and cities. We deeply understand how important digital transformation is to the survival and development of enterprises. All enterprises with successful digital transformation have realized digitization from product R&D and design, production and operation, sales to after-sales management, greatly improving their ability to adapt to the market as well as improving production and operation efficiency and reducing production and operation costs. Those enterprises whose digital transformation was unsuccessful or has just started are facing a series of difficulties and problems. Therefore, we believe that digital transformation is very important. General Secretary Xi Jinping attached great importance to digital transformation, pointing out that “The global economy is embracing the trend of digital transformation, and the new round of industrial revolution will reshape human society in profound ways.” Digital transformation is very important, and we should actively promote the digital transformation of enterprises.

二是加大创新研发支持力度，大力推动关键核心技术攻关，努力培育新的经济增长点。传统动能正在减弱，必须补充新动能，创新研发对于增加新动能非常重要，所以要加大创新研发支持力度，努力培育新的经济增长点。

Second, we should strengthen support for research and development (R&D) and innovation, strive to achieve breakthroughs in key and core technologies, and actively cultivate new points of economic growth. As the traditional driving force weakens, new ones must be replenished through R&D and innovation. This is of great importance to economic growth.

三是持续优化营商环境和政策保障体系。营商环境对一个国家，一个地区，都是非常重要的。要优化营商环境和政策保障体系，助力新增市场主体蓬勃发展，增强我国经济发展的韧性。

Third, we should continue to improve the business environment and policy system. The business environment is of vital importance to a country or a region. A better business atmosphere and policy system can help boost the development of new market entities and enhance China's economic resilience.

四是继续巩固新能源汽车、工业机器人、集成电路等新产品行业集群化、信息化和智能化发展，促进经济高质量发展。

Fourth, we should continue to consolidate the cluster-based, informatized and smart development of new products, for example, New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), industrial robots and integrated circuits, so as to pursue high-quality economic development.

五是持续支持海外仓、跨境电商、工业互联网等新产业新业态新模式的发展壮大，打通国内外供应链各个环节。对外贸易方面还有许多新的增长点。比如说软件和信息技术服务、旅行服务、金融和保险服务、教育服务、健康养老服务，具有广泛的发展空间。比如说健康养老，我国的老龄化问题越来越突出，健康养老方面面临着很大的压力，国外有一些先进的养老理念和先进的养老措施应该充分借鉴，以解决我国面临的一系列健康养老问题。所以，在对外贸易方面有许多工作可以做，既有利于对外贸易的发展，也对国内经济发展和社会进步起到重要的促进作用。

Fifth, we should continue to support the development of new industries and new business types and models including overseas warehouses, cross-border e-commerce and industrial networks. We must help connect each link of domestic and global supply chains. There are still more growth points in foreign trade. Broad growth potentials exist for services in the fields of software and information technology, travel, finance and insurance, education and elderly care. Take elderly care as an example. China's population ageing is deepening, putting a lot of pressure on elderly care. Therefore, advanced ideas and practices in some foreign countries can be drawn upon to cope with our domestic challenges. A lot of work can be done in foreign trade, which will not only boost foreign trade but also promote domestic economic development and social progress.

南华早报记者:

South China Morning Post (SCMP):

近期看到一些讨论，担忧中国经济面临滞胀的风险有所增加，请问二位专家对这个问题怎么看待？

Recently, there are some concerns that the risk of stagflation is rising in China. What do you make of that?

姚景源:

Yao Jingyuan:

首先，滞胀这个概念是上世纪七十年代从美国开始的。原来按照经济学原理来讲，通货膨胀是和经济过热相关联的，如果经济在衰退时期，就不会产生通货膨胀，这是过去的经济学原理，是凯恩斯的基本思想。但是上世纪七十年代从美国到欧洲都出现过滞胀。什么叫滞胀呢？一方面经济在急剧下行滑落，甚至出现负增长，另一方面物价又在迅速上涨。我认为中国不要担心滞胀的问题。我刚才说，去年年底和今年年初的时候，很多人担心今年要出现严峻的通货膨胀，结果现在我们的问题是什么呢？比如说猪肉，前两年40块钱一斤，甚至有人说还得涨，现在降到9块钱一斤。我们现在操心的是要把这个价格稳住，因为再这么跌下去，养猪业就会受到损失，所以要加大政府收储力度，采取办法稳住价格。所以，中国不会出现高通货膨胀，特别是不会出现恶性通货膨胀。而且，从经济学原理来讲，通货膨胀归根结底是一种货币现象，就是市场上过多的货币追逐较少的产品。

First of all, the concept of stagflation began in the United States in the 1970s. According to the previous economic theory, too much inflation means an economy is overheated. If an economy slows down, there will be no inflation. This, Keynes's general theory, is an old theory. But stagflation swept America and Europe in the 1970s. What does stagflation mean? It means on one hand, the economy is slipping sharply and even retracting. On the other hand, prices will rise rapidly. I don't think that China should worry about it. I have just mentioned that many people showed concerns over possible inflation in the end of last year and the beginning of this year. However, the problem we are facing now is to stabilize food prices. Take pork prices as an example. It was 80 yuan per kilogram two year ago, but it is 18 yuan per kilogram now. If pork prices continue to drop, the pig farming industry will suffer. Therefore, efforts should be made in strengthening government stockpiling to stabilize prices. This will counter the risk of high inflation, particularly hyperinflation, in China. Moreover, from the principles of economics, inflation is basically a kind of monetary phenomenon, meaning more money chasing less products. I believe that from a monetary policy perspective, the deposit-reserve ratio can be lowered appropriately and one point down will release 1 trillion yuan in financial liquidity. I found during my investigation at the grassroots level that, generally, business liquidity is sort of under pressure.

就中国经济来讲，内生动力没有问题。比如说，现在大家最担忧的就是四季度以及明年上半年经济增速能不能稳住，如何分析呢？就是分析投资、消费、出口这“三驾马车”。不知道你们有没有注意，中央经济工作会议当时给这三驾马车每一驾马车加了一个词。“出口”要发挥对经济增长的拉动作用，加了一个“拉动”，让出口这驾马车往前拉，我认为四季度是没有问题的。给“消费”加一个“基础”作用，消费是基础。当前看，疫情对消费的冲击是最大的，因为疫情防控需要，聚集性消费受到较大冲击，像旅游、餐饮业、电影业等很多需要人聚集的消费均受到影响。所以，随着我们有效地实施疫情防控，消费会逐步回升。现在看，9月比8月好，消费有望继续回升。中央经济工作会议给投资加了“关键”两个字，要发挥投资对经济增长的关键作用。我认为，经济增速回落和投资有直接关系。大家知道，投资分三大块，一块是工业投资，一块是房地产，一块是基础设施投资。前三季度投资同比增长7.3%，增速最低的基础设施投资增长1.5%，两年平均增长0.4%。大家知道，过去几十年，基础设施投资高速增长，现在回落到1.5%，所以这一块是大问题。我觉得，四季度包括明年，稳增长要发挥投资的关键作用，而关键当中就是基础设施投资。我们有什么招法呢？刚才宪春同志一开始讲的就涉及到了，比如说“十四五”规划已经明确“十四五”期间要布局102个大项目，这102个大项目都是经过充分论证的，所以应当让这102个大项目在四季度乃至明年尽早全部开工，形成实物工作量，这对全国投资将是极大的拉动。有些项目我认为还可以再往前提，能提的往前提。因为这102个大项目是经过充分论证的，列到了“十四五”规划。

And for China's economy, internal driving forces have worked well. For example, people's top worry now is whether the economic growth rate can remain stable in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year. How to gauge these predictions? The key is the "three horses of troika" for economic growth, namely export, consumption, and investment. I don't know if you have noticed, but the Central Economic Work Conference added a phrase for each item. Export plays a role in "driving" economic growth, which means it drives the troika forward. I think there is no problem with this in regard to the fourth quarter. Consumption plays a "basic" role in economic growth. At present, consumption was hit hardest by the COVID-19 outbreak. Due to epidemic prevention and control, many consumer-intensive means of consumption such as the tourism, catering, and film industries have been heavily impacted. Therefore, consumption activities will gradually recover with our effective epidemic-control efforts. Now, data for September is better than August, and consumption and recovery are expected to continue. According to the Central Economic Work Conference, investment plays a "key" role in stimulating growth. I believe that the decline in economic growth is directly related to investment. As we all know, investment is divided into three parts: industrial investment, property investment, and infrastructure investment. In the first three quarters, the country's investment grew by 7.3% year-on-year, while the slowest sector — infrastructure investment — was up by 1.5% year-on-year, an average two-year growth of 0.4%. Infrastructure investment has increased rapidly over the past few decades and is now falling back to 1.5%, so this is a big problem. I think in the fourth quarter, and next year, we should give full play to the key role of investment in stabilizing growth, with infrastructure investment as its decisive factor. Then what can we do? As Mr. Xu mentioned in the beginning, the 14th Five-Year Plan laid out plans for 102 major projects during the period, which had undergone sufficient assessment. All these projects should start work as soon as possible in the fourth quarter and next year to form a real physical workload, which will greatly boost investment. In my point of view, some projects should come into operation earlier if possible.

还有一个，宪春同志刚才讲，地方政府专项债到8月份才发了18000亿，今年全年计划36500亿，到8月份进度才50%，什么概念呢？往年到这个时候进度都已经快到90%了，所以要加大进度，把剩下这1万多亿尽快布局好，让地方把大项目实施开工，然后形成实物工作量，这对整个经济是一个极大的拉动。

In addition, Mr. Xu just pointed out that special local government bonds worth 1.8 trillion yuan were issued as of August, accounting for only half of the annual issuance quota of 3.65 trillion yuan. By this time in previous years, the proportion had almost reached 90%. Thus, we need to speed up the issuance of the remaining 1 trillion yuan-plus worth of bonds so that the construction of major projects in local areas will begin, and the real physical workload can be formed, all of which will significantly promote economic development.

从价格看，1-9月份CPI平均上涨才0.6%，估计全年1%左右。所以，价格涨幅低位平稳给货币政策带来了一个良好的空间。

In terms of prices, the CPI rose by an average of just 0.6% between January and September, with an estimated annual increase of about 1%.

另一方面，财政政策空间也很大。1-8月份，全国一般公共预算收入增长18.4%，但是一般公共预算支出增长3.6%，财政收支之间还有相当大的空间，可以加大财政支出，针对结构调整、结构优化，支持补短板。比如说，现在汽车行业的短板是缺芯，海运是缺柜，就是缺集装箱、货柜。其实，在这些方面我们都有优势，全世界最大的集装箱生产企业在我们中国。所以，财政政策就可以针对短板加大扶持力度。从这个角度来说，我们完全可以坚定信心，看到中国经济的内生动力，我们有能力把这个下行的状态稳住，这一点是没有问题的。

The low and stable price increase has given room for monetary policy. On the other hand, fiscal policy also has a lot of room. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue increased by 18.4%, while the general public budget expenditure increased by 3.6%, indicating that there is still considerable room between fiscal revenue and expenditure. We can therefore increase fiscal expenditure and adjust and improve its composition to strengthen areas of weakness. For instance, the auto industry's current weakness is its chip shortage, and for the shipping industry is the lack of containers. In fact, China has advantages in those respects — the world's largest container manufacturers are here. As a result, the fiscal policy can give more assistance to these weak links. From this point of view, we can reinforce our confidence in the internal drivers of China's economy and our capability to cope with this downward pressure.

回到我刚才说的宏观调控，要总结过去的经验。要想踩这个“油门”，甚至把油门踩大，其实我们有这方面的本事，从1998年亚洲金融危机到2008年世界金融危机，直到现在，这方面我们总结了比较丰富的历史经验。所以，今天国家统计局发布的数据，包括付凌晖同志上午介绍的内容，可以看出中国经济的总体状况。当然，我们也要看到存在的问题，还要看到这些问题的阶段性、结构性以及周期性，原因虽然复杂，但是我们有办法、有能力把整个经济状态稳住，让中国经济的内生动力得到进一步发挥。所以，中国经济仍然还会保持健康的、较好的增长，今年达到8%左右，这在世界主要经济体当中我们肯定还是排在第一。

Regarding macro regulation, we should sum up the past experience. Actually, we have the ability to step on this "gas pedal" to accelerate it. From the Asian financial crisis in 1998 to the world financial crisis in 2008, until now, we have learned lessons from a wealth of historical experiences. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today and the introduction of Mr. Fu Linghui this morning, we can see the general condition of the Chinese economy. Of course, we also need to be aware of the problems and their phased, structural, and cyclical nature. Although the reasons are complex, we have the means and capability to stabilize the economic situation, and give further role of the internal forces driving China's economy. The country's economy will still maintain healthy and better growth and is expected to expand 8% this year, which will certainly rank first among major economies around the world.

邢慧娜:

Xing Huina:

感谢两位专家。大家如果没有其他问题，今天的吹风会就到这儿。谢谢各位媒体朋友们！

Thanks to our two experts. If there are no other questions, today's briefing is hereby concluded. Thank you, friends from the media!