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广交会出口形势乐观

纽约时报 2012-10-17 纽约时报 382次

 

At Trade Fair, Chinese Exporters a Bit More Optimistic


 

GUANGZHOU, CHINA — Buyers from around the world thronged the cavernous halls of the Canton Fair at its opening day Monday, as a new and somewhat more optimistic mood seemed to be taking hold among Chinese exporters, despite signs that the possible beginning of any economic recovery in China seems narrowly based and may not last.

中国广州——中国的广交会(Canton Fair)于本周一开幕,庞大的展厅里挤满了来自世界各地的买家。与此同时,中国出口商似乎产生了一种更为乐观的新情绪,尽管有迹象显示, 中国经济即便已经开始复苏,看起来也缺乏坚实的基础,多半还不会持久。

With only a few exceptions, exporters of products as varied as hammers, electric fans and gaudy nightclub wall decorations said that demand from emerging markets and the United States was beginning to recover.

除了少数人之外,从锤子、电风扇到俗丽夜总会墙饰等各种产品的出口商都说,来自新兴市场和美国的需求已经开始恢复。

“It’s getting better,” said Zhang Lu, the sales manager of Ningbo Dabu Welding Technology, which sells welding helmets with heavily tinted safety visors and designs on the sides that include flaming skulls and American eagles.

“情况越来越好了。”宁波大埠焊接工艺公司(音译)的销售经理张露(音译)说。该公司出售带有深色护目镜的焊接头盔,头盔两侧的装饰包括燃烧的骷髅头和美国之鹰。

China’s credit crunch also appears to be easing. Chen Wenfei, the assistant general manager of Jiangmen Ruirong Pump Industry, said that a recent bank loan for the purchase of factory equipment together with rising export orders had allowed the company to hire 30 more workers, bringing the total to 330.

中国的信贷紧缩似乎也在放宽。江门瑞荣泵业有限公司副总经理陈文辉说,公司新近获得了一笔用于购买工厂设备的银行贷款,出口订单也不断增加,公司由此多雇了30名工人,工人总数达到330人。

The loan process “was very fast — we are an existing customer, and they increased our credit line,” said Mr. Chen, whose company exports water well pumps to the Mideast and North Africa.

贷款程序“非常迅速,我们是银行的老客户,他们增加了我们的信用额度。”陈文辉说,他的公司向中东和北非出口井用水泵。

Yet domestic demand inside China is still flat, executives from provinces across China cautioned in interviews. Many companies still have sizable inventories of unsold goods. And while Chinese exports to many markets have been surprisingly strong this autumn, sales to Europe are still falling, with no end in sight.

但中国各省的高管们在采访中警告说,中国的国内需求依然不振。许多公司的仓库里依然堆着为数可观的待售商品。今年秋天,虽然中国出口商品在许多市场的销势显得意外强劲,但向欧洲的出口依然在下滑,并无止跌迹象。

In the latest sign of chronic overcapacity, wholesale prices were down 3.6 percent last month from the level of a year ago, China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced Monday. Prices are still rising at the consumer level but at an ever slower pace, up 1.9 percent last month from a year ago.

慢性产能过剩的最新迹象是,中国国家统计局在本周一发布的数据显示,上个月的批发价格比去年同期下降了3.6%。在消费者层面,价格仍在上涨,速度却在不断放缓,上个月的数据比去年同期高出1.9%。

The mood at the Canton Fair, the country’s main export fair with nearly 60,000 exhibition stalls, has nonetheless improved strikingly from the previous session of the twice-a-year event, last held in April.

广交会是中国的主要出口商品交易会,设有近6万个展览摊位,每年举办两次。比起今年4月的那一次,这次广交会的气氛终归是有了显著好转。

The Chinese government announced Saturday that exports had grown 9.9 percent last month, almost twice as fast as most forecasts, while a broad measure of the money supply also increased faster than expected.

中国政府于上周六宣布,上个月的出口量增长了9.9%,几乎是大多数预测数字的两倍,与此同时,广义货币供应量的增长速度也比预期要快。新生的经济复苏似乎并非源自中国国内消费性支出的可持续反弹。

The nascent economic recovery seems not to depend on a sustainable revival of consumer spending within China. Instead, it appears heavily dependent on exports — which may cause further job losses in struggling overseas economies and could also result in increased calls from politicians like Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate for president of the United States, for more confrontational trade and currency policies toward China.

相反,这次的复苏似乎严重地依赖于出口,这可能会导致苦苦挣扎的海外经济体进一步裁员,或许还会导致像美国共和党总统候选人米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)这样的政客发出更多呼吁,呼吁对中国采取更具对抗性的贸易和汇率政策。

The early signs of an improvement in the economy are also underpinned by investment spending, largely financed by a potentially inflationary surge in loans from state-owned banks to government construction projects.

这些经济改善的早期迹象也受到了投资支出的支持,其资金大部分是源自国有银行发放给政府建设项目的激增贷款,这样的情况有可能引发通胀。

“It seems that while people are searching for signs of China’s consumption taking the lead, it is the good old exports and investment that might lead the recovery again, at least in the short term,” Wang Tao, a China economist at UBS, wrote in a research note Monday.

“看起来,尽管人们一直在中国寻找消费带动经济的迹象,有可能引领复苏的却依然是屡试不爽的出口和投资,至少在短期内是如此。”本周一,瑞士联合银行(UBS)的中国经济学家王涛在一份报告中写道。

Many economists expect the Chinese government to announce Thursday that economic growth in the third quarter was just barely short of the official target of 7.5 percent. But business executives said that the reality was worse for many companies selling in the domestic market, leaving considerable room for a rebound.

许多经济学家预计,中国政府将在本周四宣布的第三季度经济增长只会比7.5%的官方目标略低。然而,企业高管们表示,对许多在国内市场销售商品的公司来说,现实情况比数字更糟,为反弹留下了相当大的空间。

“All industries are going down, but why aren’t the official statistics going down?” asked Bob Wang, the sales manager of Kralle Tools, a manufacturer in the eastern city of Wenzhou that makes circular saw blades for lumber mills.

“所有的产业都在下滑,可是,官方的统计数据为什么没有下滑呢?”浙江鹰抓工具有限公司的销售经理王鲍勃(Bob Wang,音译)说。该公司是一家位于东部城市温州的制造商,生产伐木场使用的圆盘锯锯齿。

He said that he believed government officials had been underestimating the extent of China’s slowdown to avoid losing face.

他说,他认为政府官员们一直在刻意低估中国经济放缓的程度,以免丢失面子。广交会的首席发言人刘建军在周日的一份声明中警告,国外需求仍未完全恢复。“今后几个月外贸形势仍然很严峻。”他说。

With real estate markets in much of the world still weak, Chinese exporters of construction products are less bullish than exporters of other goods.

由于世界大部分地区的房地产市场仍然疲软,中国建材出口商的底气就不像其他出口商那么足。

“This year’s business is worse than last year’s,” said Renee Wong, the export manager of Heng Feng Aluminum, which is based in the southern city of Foshan and exports aluminum window frames to Africa, Australia and Poland. “It’s a hangover from the global financial crisis.”

恒丰铝业的出口经理勒妮·王(Renee Wong,音译)说,“今年的生意比不上去年。这是全球金融危机的余波。”这家公司位于南部城市佛山,向非洲、澳大利亚和波兰出口铝质窗框。

U.S. buyers nonetheless appeared to be more numerous than usual at the Canton Fair on Monday, with many catching the first two-hour morning train from Hong Kong. Demand from commodity-exporting countries and highly populous nations has also been unexpectedly robust.

不过,周一出现在广交会上的美国买家似乎比往常多。他们中间的许多人搭乘早间的头班火车,经两小时路程从香港赶来。来自物资出口国和人口大国的需求也出乎预料地旺盛。

“Australia is steady, India is strong — Europe is slowly falling asleep,” said Marlies Janssen, the Dutch chief executive of Retail D’sign Factory, a design and purchasing company based in Shanghai that specializes in vacuum cleaners and kitchen blenders.

如特尔设计咨询(RetailD’sign Factory)的荷兰籍首席执行官马利斯·扬森(Marlies Janssen)说,“澳大利亚需求平稳,印度需求强劲,欧洲则昏昏欲睡。”这家位于上海的设计与采购公司以真空吸尘器和厨房搅拌机见长。

But Japanese buyers were conspicuous by their near absence from the fair, a consequence of a territorial dispute over seven uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that set off anti-Japanese demonstrations in many Chinese cities, with dozens of Japanese cars destroyed.

然而,引人注目的是,本次广交会几乎见不到日本买家的身影,原因是中日两国对东海无人居住的七个岛屿的领土争端。争端引发了许多中国城市的反日游行活动,导致几十辆日本汽车被毁。

Chinese exports have benefited partly from a halt to the appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar this year.

中国出口还部分受益于今年人民币对美元升值的停滞。

The Chinese currency has bobbed up and down around 6.3 to the dollar, even weakening by 1 percent for a while over the summer.

人民币兑美元的汇率一直在6.3上下浮动,夏季里有一阵还贬值了1%。

Investors have been taking money out of China as the real estate market has weakened and the prospects for appreciation have faded, offsetting the continued inflows from the country’s persistent trade surpluses.

由于房地产市场走弱,再加上人民币升值前景黯淡,投资者一直在将资金抽离中国,抵消了该国持久贸易顺差带来的持续资金流入。

The product that seemed to draw the biggest crowds at the Canton Fair was one of potentially dubious legality. It was the “stealth license plate,” a remote-controlled electric frame for car license plates that can slide a black cover over the plate in two seconds to prevent the plate from being identified by automatic cameras at toll plazas or police speed traps.

看起来,广交会上吸引了最多人群的是一种游走在法律边缘的产品。该产品名为“隐形车牌”,是一种遥控的电动车牌外框。它可以在两秒钟内滑出一块遮挡车牌的黑色盖板,以免收费站的自动摄像头和警察测速仪认出车牌。

Two lights in a plug-in dashboard display indicate whether the front and rear license plates are visible or not.

插电的仪表盘上有两盏灯,分别指示前后车牌是否可见。

A saleswoman for the company, Zhejiang Hongxu Industrial in Yongkang City, China, said that the devices could not be sold in China but were being exported to the United States, Russia and Kazakhstan.

车牌生产商是永康市的浙江弘旭工贸公司,该公司的女销售员说,这种设备不能在中国销售,但已经行销到美国、俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦。

She went silent when her manager loudly ordered her not to discuss the product with any journalists.

经理大声命令她不要与记者谈论该产品,于是她闭了嘴。

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