Israel and the Palestinians
以色列与巴勒斯坦人
Old battles, new Middle East
老旧的冲突，变化的中东
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could yet be an unlikely foundation for peace
以色列与哈马斯的停火或许仍是一个不可能的和平的基础
CAN there ever be a lasting peace between Arabs and Jews in the Middle East? Another round of bloodshed (see article) suggests that any such hope is vain. Amid the usual futile arguments over who started it, scores of buildings have been reduced to rubble; more than 140 Palestinians, most of them civilians, and six Israelis have been killed; and, for the first time, missiles from Gaza have landed near Tel Aviv, Israel's metropolis, and the holy city of Jerusalem.
阿拉伯人与犹太人在中东能有持久的和平吗？新一轮的流血表明，任何这种希望都是渺茫的。在老套的谁先挑起流血的琐碎争论中，数十座建筑物被夷为平地；140多名巴勒斯坦人，其中大部分是平民，以及6名以色列人被打死；加沙的火箭弹第一次落在以色列大都市特拉维夫和圣城耶路撒冷附近。
But though the Israelis and Palestinians seem stuck in their ancient conflict, all around them the Middle East is changing. The Arab spring has thrown the pieces up in the air, and, like it or not, the Palestinians and Israelis are caught up in the regional turmoil. Maybe this will make their struggle bloodier than before. However, there are reasons for thinking it could just break their lethal stalemate.
尽管以色列人和巴勒斯坦似乎又陷入老式的冲突，但是，他们周边的中东正处于变革之中。阿拉伯之春风起云涌，不管你承认与否，巴勒斯坦与以色列陷入了地区动荡。这或许会使他们的冲突比以前更加血腥。不过，有理由认为这可能会打破他们的致命僵局。
A war that is neither lost or won
一场没有输赢的战争
At first sight, optimism looks very hard to justify now. Even if the ceasefire agreed on November 21st holds, this week's fighting has strengthened the hawks on both sides.
粗略一看，目前难以做出乐观的判断。即使11月21日达成的停火得以延续，本周的战斗已使双方的强硬派占了风。
The leaders of Hamas, the Islamist movement that has ruled Gaza since 2007, will claim to have forced the Israelis to back off, even though Gaza has taken a drubbing. Despite killing some of its leaders and bottling up Gaza's 1.7m people in one of the most wretched and crowded corners of the planet, Israel has failed to destroy Hamas. Indeed Hamas is gaining on the West Bank, the other bit of Palestine currently run by its bitter rivals in Fatah, the more moderate Palestinian faction.
即使加沙被痛击，自2007年以来就统治加沙的哈马斯领导人也会宣布，他们已经迫使色列人撤退。除了杀死几名哈马斯领导人和将170万名加沙民众围困在这个星球上最悲惨最狭小的一个角落之外，以色列没能摧毁哈马斯。事实上，哈马斯正在西岸壮大起来，巴勒斯坦的这块地区目前由哈马斯的死对头法塔赫控制，法塔赫是一个较温和的巴勒斯坦派别。
Moreover, Hamas's leaders may well conclude that time is on their side. As Islamists across the Arab world have gained clout, so Hamas has made powerful and rich friends. Turkey, a resurgent regional power that was once Israel's closest Muslim ally, has taken up Hamas's cause; so has Qatar, one of the richest and most dynamic of the Gulf states. Jubilant Hamas people say an Islamist crescent is curving around Israel, from Lebanon in the north, where the Hizbullah party-cum-militia holds sway, through Syria, where rebels of an increasingly Islamist bent may topple Bashar Assad, and on down through Jordan, where Hamas's allies are menacing the king.
此外，哈马斯领导人或许会得出结论，认为时间在他们一边。随着阿拉伯世界的伊斯兰主义者风头日甚，因而哈马斯结交了一些有权有钱的朋友。土耳其表示支持哈马斯，这个复兴的地区大国曾是以色列在穆斯林世界的最亲密盟友；卡塔尔也是如此，她是海湾地区最富有最具影响力的国家之一。哈马斯人眉飞色舞地说，一弯伊斯兰新月正将以色列包围起来。这弯新月北起黎巴嫩，此处是真主党的政党＋民兵的天下；中间通过叙利亚，这里的伊斯兰的反对派可能会推翻巴沙尔·阿萨德；再往下是约旦，哈马斯的盟友正威胁那里的国王。
Above all, on Israel's southern flank, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood under President Muhammad Morsi in Egypt, by far the most populous and pivotal of Arab countries, has changed the region's balance. Hosni Mubarak, the secular despot who ran Egypt for 30 years until his downfall in 2011, had little time for Hamas. By contrast, the Brotherhood is a cousin of Hamas, and its leaders are more subject to popular opinion. In future diplomacy Hamas may emerge as an actor that cannot be shut out even by Israel and America.
最后，在以色列的南部侧翼，在总统穆罕默德·穆尔西领导下的埃及是阿拉伯世界最受欢迎和最关键的国家，穆斯林兄弟会在埃及的崛起已经改变了地区的平衡。曾统治埃及30多年的世俗独裁者胡斯尼·穆巴拉克在2011年下台前很少支持哈马斯。相比之下，穆斯林兄弟会是哈马斯的铁哥们，同时其领导人更乐于听从民众的意见。在未来的外交中，哈马斯可能会成为一个连以色列和美国都不能拒之门外的对手。
Meanwhile, Israel's hardliners will draw the opposite conclusions. In military terms, Hamas has been put back in its box. Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system has proved its worth and many of Hamas's missiles have been destroyed. Israelis will sleep more soundly—for a while. In diplomatic terms, America is as steadfast as ever; many European countries also blamed Hamas for starting the latest round of violence.
同时，以色列强硬派会得出相反的结论。从军事意义上说，哈马斯被打回原形。以色列的铁穹反导系统证明了自己的价值，多数哈马斯火箭弹被摧毁。以色列人暂时会睡得更香甜。从外交意义上说，美国仍像以前那样坚定；多数欧洲国家也谴责哈马斯挑起新一轮的暴力。
Above all, Israel has prospered, especially under Binyamin Netanyahu, a prime minister who has largely ignored the peace process. Although rockets from Gaza have killed around 30 Israelis since 2004, Israel has been fairly free of suicide-bombers, thanks in part to the barrier that bites into the West Bank, the main chunk of a would-be Palestinian state, and protects the Jewish settlements that continue to expand despite their illegality in international law. Mr Netanyahu, whose Likud party has merged with an even more hawkish lot under Avigdor Lieberman in the run-up to an election on January 22nd, is sitting pretty. Why coddle those twisty Palestinians by giving them a state of their own? If they really ran the West Bank, would they not fire rockets, just as their compatriots have done in Gaza? Better to keep them behind that wall and smite them if they raise their heads.
总之，以色列成功了，特别是在本亚明·内塔尼亚胡的领导下成功了，这位总理曾极度忽视和平进程。尽管自2004年以来有大约30名以色列人死于加沙的火箭弹，但是以色列在很大程度上幸免于自杀式炸弹者，这归功于犹太人定居点的持续延伸，这些定居点在国际法上是非法的。内塔尼亚胡目前处于极有力的位置，其所在的利库德集团为了准备明年1月22日的大选已经同阿维格多·利伯曼领导的更右倾的党派合并。为什么要以承认他们建国来娇惯那些狡猾的巴勒斯坦人？如果他们真得想统治西岸，他们会不会像加沙的同胞那样发射火箭弹呢？最好还是把他们封锁在隔离墙的后面，胆敢露头就把他们打回去。
Maybe the hardliners will win out; yet the Arab spring may change their calculations. Even if the Islamists taking power in Egypt and elsewhere have little love for Israel, their priority will be tackling difficulties at home. Israel's defence budget is bigger than that of its four Arab neighbours combined. Starting a war with the local superpower will hardly help the new Arab governments mend their economies. That the pragmatic Mr Morsi worked with Barack Obama to obtain a ceasefire augers well—and might just mark the start of something.
强硬派或许会最终获胜；但是阿拉伯之春会打乱他们的算盘。即使在埃及和其他地区掌权的伊斯兰主义者对以色列没有一点好感，但他们的首要任务是处理自己国内的难题。以色列的四个阿拉伯邻国的国防预算加起来也没有以色列多。同地区超级强国开战几乎对新掌权的阿拉伯政府修补经济没有任何帮助。同贝拉克·奥巴马合作已达成停火，务实的穆尔西做得不错——同时也许是某种开始的标志。
Israelis too should look to the longer term. With the rest of the Arab world becoming more democratic, depriving Palestinians of their right to self-determination is creating a powder keg that is bound one day to explode in the territories occupied by Israel—much as a bus exploded in Tel Aviv this week. Repression is already undermining democracy in the Jewish state, and demography exacerbates this as the Arab population swells. Bloody missions against Gaza every few years to knock back Hamas will exact a growing diplomatic toll.
以色列也应当有长远考虑。在其他阿拉伯国家变得更民主的情况下，剥夺巴勒斯坦人的民族自决权就是建造一个火药桶，它总有一天会在以色列占领区爆炸——就像本周特拉维夫的公共汽车爆炸一样。镇压已经削弱了犹太国家的民主，同时随着阿拉伯人激增，人口统计也夸大了这种情况。每隔几年对加沙发起血腥行动以教训哈马斯的做法会产生日益增多的外交代价。
Both sides need prodding by outsiders
双方需要外部推动
The answer remains the one trumpeted by sensible people on both sides, most of the outside world and this newspaper: two states, with Israel ceding territory for security. The hope—a small one in the short term—is that the ceasefire will give a little more leverage to outsiders pushing that cause. Egypt, which must now set about stopping the flow of arms into Gaza, along with Turkey and Qatar, is better placed than ever to persuade Hamas to accept the idea of a Jewish state based on the 1967 boundaries with land swaps and a shared Jerusalem. Arab outsiders should also press Hamas and Fatah to come together. That would do more to create a Palestinian state than the imminent bid for virtual statehood at the UN.
解决办法依旧是双方理性人士，大多数外部国家以及本报所大力提倡的方案：双方各自承认对方的国家，条件是以色列以土地换安全。一个短期的小希望在于，停火能给推动和平的外部国家多一点压力。埃及，连同土耳其与卡塔尔在内，必须立即着手阻止武器流入加沙；与以往相比，埃及处于更有利的地位来说服哈马斯，让其接受以土地互换和共同享有耶路撒冷为条件，基于1967年边界的犹太人国家的想法。来自阿拉伯的外部国家也应当对哈马斯和法塔赫施加压力，让双方合作。这样做比在联合国急切地提出虚拟建国的要求更有利于建立巴勒斯坦国家。
Mr Obama also has a part in getting Israel to the table. During his first term, he neglected to present his own plan for peace. Back in the White House, he is looking just as reluctant to be drawn in. This is woefully short-sighted. America has a vital interest in a stable Middle East. That means a peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.
奥巴马也应当发挥让以色列回到谈判桌的作用。在他的首个任期内，他疏忽于拿出自己的和平计划。连任后，他看上去不情愿被牵扯进来，这是可悲的短视。美国在稳定的中东存在着切身利益，这就是以色列与巴勒斯坦之间的和平协定。
economist
2012-11-26
economist
371次
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