财政悬崖协议将如何影响美国国民？
What to Expect If a Fiscal-Cliff Deal Is Made
如果美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)和众议院多数党领袖博纳(John Boehner)敲定这些天一直在谈判的协议，那么明年几乎所有纳税人都得多向联邦政府交钱。
Almost all taxpayers would pay more to the federal government next year if President Barack Obama and House Majority Leader John Boehner close the deal they have been negotiating in recent days.
从1月份第一个星期开始，随着工资税率上升，劳动者拿到手工资会变得更少。根据逐渐浮出水面的协议，高收入家庭的个人所得税税率将提高，税前扣除和其他减免也会受到更加严格的限制。
Starting the first week of January, workers would receive smaller paychecks as the payroll-tax rate rises. Higher-income households would face higher individual income-tax rates and tighter limits on deductions and other breaks, under the emerging agreement.
谈判不一定能够达成协议。他们有可能谈崩，或者是产生一份无法在严重对立的国会获得通过的协议。但如果达不成协议，明年1月份起税收将大大增加，政府支出也将自动大幅削减。这是两党都不希望看到的一个结局。随着双方的分歧越来越少，协议可能造成的影响是可以估计的。
There is no guarantee the talks will produce a deal. They could break down, or yield an agreement that can't pass a polarized Congress. But without a deal, taxes will go up much more and large automatic spending cuts will start in January--an outcome that both parties want to avoid. As the differences between the two negotiators diminish, it is possible to estimate a deal's potential effects.
根据目前所谈内容达成一份协议的话，至少会带来税法的稳定。这是好事。很多年以来，越来越多的条款都是临时实施的。
At a minimum, a pact along the lines being discussed would provide welcome certainty about the tax code, after many years in which a growing number of provisions were enacted temporarily.
来自华盛顿州的共和党众议员罗杰斯(Cathy McMorris Rodgers)说，我认为我们可以送给美国的最好圣诞礼物就是一份协议，一份让我们辛勤工作的中产阶级家庭明确知道将来税率是多少的协议，一份让小企业主心里有底、从而可以放心招聘和创新的协议。
这份看上去即将成型的协议还有可能产生以下影响：
'I think that the best Christmas gift that we could give America is an agreement, an agreement that gives certainty to our hardworking middle-class families as to what their tax rates are going to be, gives certainty to our small-business owners so that they can hire and...pursue...innovation,' said Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R., Wash.)
Here are other likely effects of the deal that looks to be taking shape:
首先，到手工资几乎肯定会降低──平均每个家庭全年将少收入942美元，因为两党似乎将一致同意让一项工资税临时减免条款到期。这项针对2011年和2012年的减免将劳动者缴纳给“社会保障”的工资税税率从6.2%下调到4.2%，目的是让消费者拿到更多现金，鼓励他们消费，从而提振疲软的经济复苏。但两党很多议员担心这会造成政府收入不断流失。而且就算达不成协议，这个税率也会回到6.2%的水平。
For starters, paychecks almost certainly will be smaller--by an average $942 per household for the year, because it appears the two parties will agree to let a temporary payroll-tax holiday expire. The break, instituted for 2011 and 2012, reduced a worker's share of the Social Security payroll tax to 4.2% from 6.2%. The idea was to put more cash in consumers' wallets to encourage spending and boost the weak recovery. But many lawmakers in both parties worried about letting it become a recurring drain on government revenue. Even absent a deal, the rate will revert to 6.2%.
收入较高家庭的税负有可能大幅增加，不过仍不清楚具体受影响的将是哪些人。奥巴马现在提议上调年收入40万美元以上家庭的最高税阶税率，高于本周一之前他所主张的25万美元的门槛。来自俄亥俄州的共和党人士博纳希望最高税阶税率上调仅限于年收入超过100万美元的家庭。一些国会幕僚说，这可能预示着最终协议将把门槛设定在50万美元左右。
Upper-income households are likely to see significant tax increases, though it still isn't clear exactly who will be hit. Mr. Obama is now proposing to let the top rate rise on income above $400,000 annually, up from the $250,000 threshold he had been pushing until Monday. Mr. Boehner (R., Ohio) wants to limit the increases to households earning more than $1 million. Some congressional aides said this could presage a final deal with a cutoff in the $500,000 range.
根据布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)和城市研究所(Urban Institute)联合成立的税收政策中心(Tax Policy Center)在最近研究的一个假想方案，年收入50万到100万美元家庭的平均税负将增加5,800美元左右。在这个假想方案中，小布什时代针对年收入逾50万美元家庭的税收减免措施将会到期。
A household earning $500,000 to $1 million would see its taxes rise by an average of about $5,800 under a hypothetical plan studied recently by the Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute. That plan would allow Bush-era tax breaks to expire for households earning more than $500,000.
如果将门槛提高到博纳主张的100万美元，那么年收入逾100万美元家庭的平均税负将增加10.3万美元左右。在这种情形中，奥巴马和博纳都会允许最高税阶的税率从目前的35%增加到39.6%，而且两人也都会允许限制某些税收减免措施。
Increasing the threshold to $1 million--as Mr. Boehner prefers--would produce an average tax increase of about $103,000 for a household earning more than $1 million. Both the president and the speaker would allow the top rate to rise to 39.6% from the current 35%. Both also would allow some tax breaks to be limited.
奥巴马希望针对年收入25万以上的夫妇、年收入20万美元以上的单身人士，将他们的资本利得和股息等投资所得的最高税阶税率从目前的15%上调至20%。
Mr. Obama wants to raise top rates on investment income such as capital gains and dividends to 20% from the current 15%, for couples earning more than $250,000 and singles earning more than $200,000.
据国会幕僚说，如果将上调最高税阶税率的收入起点设定在50万美元左右，那么10年时间政府收入将增加6,000亿美元。据国会幕僚估计，将门槛设定在100万美元左右，最高有可能增加收入4,600亿美元。总之，博纳版本带来的额外收入可能更少。
Raising top rates for taxpayers starting at around $500,000 could generate about $600 billion in additional revenue over 10 years, according to congressional aides. A threshold of around $1 million could raise as much as $460 billion, according to congressional estimates; Mr. Boehner's version probably would produce less.
奥巴马政府还曾提议限制分项扣除(itemized deduction)和其他减免的金额，可能包括市政债券的免税利息。博纳最近表示愿意接受奥巴马政府限制减税的总体框架。这有可能带来很大变化，10年期间最多有望增加5,800亿美元的收入。
The administration also has proposed limiting the value of itemized deductions and other breaks, possibly including tax-free interest on municipal bonds. Mr. Boehner recently expressed willingness to go along with the administration's general framework for limiting tax breaks. That is a potentially big change that could generate as much as $580 billion over a decade.
对高收入者增税将打击很多小企业主。这方面的影响可能是两党的分歧之处。商界支持的税务基金会(Tax Foundation)最近研究认为，约36%的小企业收入都流向了收入超过100万美元的家庭。
The increases on higher earners would hit a number of small-business owners. The effect is likely to be a point of disagreement between the parties. A recent study by the business-backed Tax Foundation concluded that about 36% of small-business income goes to households with more than $1 million in income.
WSJ
2012-12-20
WSJ
436次
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