苹果供应链有危险,谁来救局?
Apple's (AAPL) share price was hit again Monday morning after several analysts reported that the company's orders to its suppliers are down. According to Topeka's Brian White, who monitors these things on a monthly basis, February's report was the worst on record.
苹果（Apple）股价本周一又遭重创，原因是多名分析师报告称，苹果下调了对供应商的订单。托皮卡资本（Topeka）分析师布莱恩?怀特每月跟踪苹果销售业绩，他指出，二月份的情况堪称史上最差。
UPDATE: The stock recovered, to say the least, at the end of the day. See Apple shares spike suddenly on high volume.
最新消息：苹果股价又反弹了，至少当天收盘时是如此。请参阅《苹果股票突然放量上涨》一文。
Below: Excerpts from several analysts' Monday notes, plus what CEO Tim Cook had to say about such reports at Apple's January conference call.
下面是三名分析师在周一发布的报告，外加苹果首席执行官蒂姆?库克在公司1月份电话会议上对这类报告的点评。
Brian White, Topeka Capital: February Apple Monitor Sales Miss Seasonal Trends. Final February sales for the Apple Monitor fell by 31% MoM, much worse than the average 8% decline over the past seven years, or when excluding a January Chinese New Year, down 15%. The Apple Monitor delivered the worst February we have on record. Most of the preliminary Taiwan Monitors experienced weaker than average trends this February including Apple supplier Hon Hai Precision with a 25% MoM sales decline in February. Maintaining $888 price target.
托皮卡资本分析师布莱恩?怀特：苹果供应商2月份表现疲软。苹果供应商2月份的营收额环比下滑31%，而在过去7年，这一数字的平均值只有8%。即便将今年1月份的中国新年剔除在外，下滑幅度也高达15%。苹果供应链交出了有记录以来最差的2月份报表。绝大部分台湾供应商2月份的表现都要差于往年，苹果头号供应商、鸿海精密仪器（Hon Hai Precision）也不例外。它2月份的营收环比下滑了25%。结论：维持（苹果）888美元的目标股价。
William Power, Baird Capital: Concerns mounting near term. Checks by Baird's semiconductor team suggest iPhone 5 and total iPad procurement orders near our shipment forecasts, but below consensus. This appears to be consistent with our growing demand concerns exiting Mobile World Congress and already below-the-Street estimates. Additionally, we now expect a higher mix of iPad Minis, negatively impacting revenue and margins. Maintaining $465 price target.
布拉德资本（Baird Capital）分析师威廉?鲍尔：苹果近期情况堪忧。布拉德的半导体团队指出，iPhone 5以及iPad产品的订货量接近我们此前的出货量预测，但低于市场平均预期。随着世界移动大会（Mobile World Congress）结束，我们预测市场需求或将放缓，而目前的数据似乎佐证了这一看法。苹果的表现已经低于华尔街的预期了。此外，我们预测iPad Mini的销量占比将提高，苹果营收和利润率都将因此下滑。维持465美元的目标股价。
Avi Silver, CLSA: Curbing our enthusiasm. Weaker iPhone trends continue to dictate the trajectory of Apple shares. We are comfortable with our Mar-Q estimates but lower our Jun-Q forecasts, reflecting lower iPhone sales and weaker iPad mix. Following a Jun-Q product lull, we expect new products (including iPhone mini) to expand Apple's emerging markets offering and return Apple to EPS growth in C2H. Also, increased cash returns could arrive in the next few weeks. However, a much-needed larger screen iPhone is unlikely in 2013, which could impact high-end smartphone share. Lowering price target to $505 from $575.
里昂证券（CLSA）分析师艾维?席尔瓦：我们的热情有所减退。iPhone疲软导致苹果股价一路下滑。虽然我们对苹果第二财季仍充满乐观，但由于iPhone和iPad销售不佳，下调第三财季的预期不可避免。经历了波澜不惊的第三财季后，苹果有望发布新产品（包括iPhone mini在内）。它将有效扩大苹果在新兴市场的份额并使其每股营收重新上涨。此外，在接下来几周，苹果的现金回报率也会有所上升。不过，虽然大屏幕iPhone的呼声很高，但在2013年仍无望上市，将影响苹果在高端智能手机市场的份额。将目标股价从575美元下调至505美元。
And finally...
最后是库克的点评。
Tim Cook, From Apple's fiscal Q1 2013 Earnings Call: "I know there has been lots of rumors about order cuts and so forth and so let me just take a moment to make a comment on these. I don't want to comment on any particular rumor because I would spend my life doing that but I would suggest it's good to question the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans and also stress that even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supply performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean there is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what's going on." (Transcript)
蒂姆?库克，苹果2013年第一财季营收会议：“这几个月有关我们订单减少之类的传闻一直不绝于耳，所以我有必要对此做出澄清。我不想单独评论哪条传闻，因为这些传闻太多，我一辈子都评不完。我只是建议大家，对有关苹果生产计划的任何传闻最好都抱着怀疑的态度。我还要提醒大家，即便某些消息是正确的，但你绝不可能从中推出我们整体业务的状况。因为供应链非常复杂，而且我们每款产品都有很多供货渠道，供应商的产量时刻都在变，供应商的表现也存在差异。初始库存水平也可能发生变化。我的意思是，影响因素实在太多了，单靠某个数据点来判断苹果的现状无异于盲人摸象。”
天之聪教育
2013-04-07
天之聪教育
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