日本过剩流动性威胁亚洲新兴市场

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日本过剩流动性威胁亚洲新兴市场

天之聪教育 2013-04-27 天之聪教育 270次

日本过剩流动性威胁亚洲新兴市场

BoJ’s splashing the cash threatens an emerging Asia

The Bank of Japan just threw another log on the fire. Over the coming two years, it plans to inject the equivalent of $1.4tn into the system. And more could come as officials struggle to hit their newly imposed inflation goal.

日本央行(BoJ)刚刚火上加薪。未来两年，日本央行计划向金融体系注入相当于1.4万亿美元的资金。随着官员努力达到最新确立的通胀目标，可能还会注入更多资金。

Whether all this cash will cure Japan’s ills is doubtful. The country’s problems are not monetary but structural. Much of this liquidity will thus leak abroad to where it is least needed – emerging Asia.

这些资金能否治愈日本的病症令人怀疑。日本的问题不在于货币政策，而是结构性的。因此，这些流动性有很大一部分将溢出到国外，流向最不需要流动性的地方——亚洲新兴市场。

The region, including China, is already drowning in liquidity and the BoJ’s action means that another powerful wave will crash on to its shores. This would raise inflation pressure and, possibly, stoke asset bubbles.

亚洲地区，包括中国在内，已经淹没在流动性过剩之中。日本央行的动作意味着，又一股流动性洪流将滚滚涌向亚洲新兴市场。这将增加通胀压力，还可能助长资产泡沫。

Until recently, emerging Asia had looked with equal measures of hope and trepidation at improving data in the US. On the one hand, recovering American demand promises relief for the region’s long-suffering exporters. On the other, stronger US growth means that the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing is moving closer. Though welcomed by Asian officials, who have had to battle ballooning capital inflows and their unwelcome effects of soaring debt and exchange rates, investors were rightly left to wonder whether higher dollar rates could spell an abrupt halt to their cushy ride of recent years.

直到不久以前，亚洲新兴市场既充满希冀又胆战心惊地看待美国经济数据好转。一方面，美国需求复苏有望让苦撑已久的出口商获得解救。另一方面，美国经济增长强劲意味着，美联储(Federal Reserve)量化宽松结束的日子进一步临近。美国经济复苏受到亚洲官员的欢迎，因为此前他们不得不对抗海量的资本流入，以及随之而来的债务及汇率飙升的不利影响，但投资者却在正确地考虑，美元利率上调会否让他们近年轻松的投资经历戛然而止。

They need not fret. The BoJ’s new policy of aggressive easing will ultimately offset the gradual tightening to be delivered by the Fed. Look at history. Asia’s previous debt splurge of the 1990s owed much to the BoJ’s generosity.

他们不必担心。日本央行新的激进宽松政策最终将抵消美联储的逐步收紧。看一看历史吧。此前20世纪90年代亚洲债务大幅增加，在很大程度上是日本央行的慷慨所致。

Back then, after Japan’s own property bubble had burst, the country’s central bank sought to cushion the blow by cutting rates. The Fed, grappling with a deep recession and the aftermath of the Savings and Loan Crisis, did the same. Inevitably, capital poured into emerging Asia.

当时，在日本自身房产泡沫破裂以后，日本央行寻求通过削减利率来缓和冲击。而正在对付深度衰退以及储贷危机(Savings and Loan Crisis)后果的美联储也采取同样的举措。结果资本不可避免地涌入亚洲新兴市场。

In 1994 the Fed shocked bond markets by raising rates unexpectedly. But higher dollar rates did little to derail Asia’s leverage train. Japanese banks, deprived of profitable opportunities in the moribund local economy, continued to invest in neighbouring countries.

1994年，美联储出人意料地提高利率，震动了债券市场。但更高的美元利率并未刹住亚洲举债的列车。在死气沉沉的本国经济找不到盈利机遇的日本各银行，继续投资到邻国。

It was only when Japan began to tumble into recession in early 1997, and questionable loans accumulated on their balance sheets, that Japanese banks started to pull out of the region, exacerbating a liquidity squeeze that would evolve into a much larger crisis.

到了1997年初，日本开始跌入衰退，资产负债表上不良贷款开始积累，此时日本各银行开始从亚洲新兴市场撤退，加重了流动性短缺，结果演变成一场规模大得多的危机。

Again in the 2000s, the BoJ’s easing cycle gave the region a lift despite higher dollar rates. In 2001, with deflation having taken hold, Japan’s central bank resorted to quantitative easing. Its balance sheet, as a result, ballooned from about 20 per cent of GDP to roughly 31 per cent over the next five years. Although this helped stabilise the economy, so much cash was injected that much of it found its way abroad in the form of the so-called yen carry trade.

到了21世纪最初10年，日本央行的宽松周期再次提振了亚洲地区，尽管此时美元利率较高。2001年，随着日本陷入通缩，日本央行诉诸于量化宽松。结果，在接下来的5年时间里，其资产负债表从相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的20%左右飙升到31%左右。尽管这有助于稳定经济，但注入的资金如此庞大，结果有很大一部分以日元息差交易的形式流向海外。

Emerging Asia, still reeling from the crisis, was thereby helped back on to its feet. Even as the Fed began to raise rates in 2004 – by a cumulative 425 basis points over the next couple of years – liquidity remained ample enough across the region to boost bank lending once again.

在危机后仍在蹒跚的亚洲新兴市场因此受益，站稳了脚跟。即便美联储在2004年开始提高利率（接下来两年里累计提高425个基点），该地区的流动性仍十分充足，足以再次推动银行放贷。

Today, it is almost like watching a tired rerun. Even if the Fed were gradually to taper off asset purchases later this year or next, which is by no means assured, the BoJ’s actions would blunt the effect of higher dollar rates.

如今的一切就像观看令人厌倦的重播一样。即便美联储在今年底或明年开始逐步减少资产购买（这一点并非板上钉钉），日本央行的举措也将缓冲较高美元利率产生的影响。

Japan’s central bank is projected to raise its balance sheet from nearly 35 per cent of GDP currently to some 60 per cent by the end of 2014. Yet, before deflation is truly beaten, the number may well turn out higher than this.

预计到2014年末，日本央行将把资产负债表与GDP的比率从近35%提高到60%左右。然而，在真正击败通缩之前，这个数字最终可能更高。

And so more liquidity washes into emerging Asia. Among the markets likely to feel the most immediate and biggest impact are Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, which have historically had close links to Japan’s financial system. Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as India, could also feel a major lift. Even China, though hidden behind a wall of capital controls, is not immune: money, after all, is fungible, and the Fed’s easing has shown it will relentlessly head where returns are highest.

因此更多流动性将涌入亚洲新兴市场。感受到最直接和最严重影响的，很可能是泰国、马来西亚和印尼。这三个国家历来与日本金融体系关系密切。越南、菲律宾以及印度也可能感受到重大冲击。即便是躲在资本管制大墙背后的中国，也难以幸免：毕竟，货币是可以互换的，美联储的量化宽松表明，资本将无情地流向回报最高的地方。

A little patience is needed, however. Monetary cycles take time to unfold. So far, it is only expectations that have driven yields lower and currencies higher across Asia. Japanese investors have not yet budged, preferring, for now, to ride out the rapid ascent of local asset prices.

不过，还需要一点耐心。货币周期需要时间才能见效。迄今，在亚洲各地压低收益率、推高汇率的只是预期。日本投资者尚未转向海外，暂时仍宁愿搭本国资产价格快速上涨的顺风车。

But as in previous such easing episodes, these gains will eventually exhaust themselves, luring investors to more promising opportunities elsewhere. Wait another quarter or so before the true torrent starts.

但正如以前的此类宽松阶段一样，这些斩获最终将趋于枯竭，诱使投资者转向其他地方更具潜力的机会。再等一个季度或者再久一些，真正的资金洪流就会显现。

Investors, in short, may rest assured that Asia’s easy money splurge is not coming to an end any time soon. Officials, however, have more reason to worry, for all this cash will ultimately drive up inflation, and asset prices, to dizzying heights.

简言之，投资者可以放心，亚洲的宽松资金洪流不会很快结束。不过，官员们有更多理由担心，因为这些资金最终将把通胀及资产价格推高至令人头晕目眩的高度。