葡萄牙需要结构性改革

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葡萄牙需要结构性改革

天之聪教育 2013-05-03 天之聪教育 198次

葡萄牙需要结构性改革

Parts of southern Europe really do exist in a different dimension. In salary terms, Portugal’s year has two extra months. Most employees get their monthly salary or wage, and extra payments in the summer and at Christmas. The government wanted to remove one of the two bonus payments as part of austerity measures to meet the terms of its €78bn bailout agreed in 2011. But the constitutional court has struck down the move, and three others. The ruling could derail Portugal’s ability to return to the financial markets. If the government is smart, it will use the setback to get more serious about structural reform.

南欧部分国家确实存在不同的情况。从薪资的角度来看，葡萄牙的一年多出了两个月。多数员工每月得到薪水，并在夏季和圣诞节获得额外薪资。作为紧缩举措的一部分，葡萄牙政府希望取消这两笔额外奖金之一，以满足2011年商定的780亿欧元纾困协议的条款。但该国宪法法院否决了此举以及其他3项措施。这一裁决可能会让葡萄牙丧失回归金融市场的能力。如果葡萄牙政府聪明的话，它会利用此次挫折更严肃地对待结构性改革。

Portugal might be the forgotten victim of the eurozone crisis, but it had been beavering away at reforms since 2011 and was starting to impress investors. True, the stock market has shed about 30 per cent since then. But that is no worse than neighbouring Spain. The yield on 10-year Portuguese bonds has roughly halved to about 6.2 per cent.

葡萄牙或许是此次欧元区危机被人遗忘的受害者，但自2011年以来，该国一直忙于改革，并开始给投资者留下深刻印象。确实，该国股市此后下跌约30%。但这并不比邻国西班牙更糟。葡萄牙10年期债券收益率已下降约一半，至6.2%左右。

The latest bout of jitters about its ability to meet its commitments has taken its toll, however. Portuguese bank shares were walloped yesterday – down about 5 per cent – while the wider stock market has given up all its 2013 gains in the past couple of weeks.

然而，最新一波对于葡萄牙履行承诺能力的恐慌已造成了影响。葡萄牙银行类股近日大幅下挫，跌幅为5%左右，而过去几周，该国股市大盘回吐了2013年以来的全部涨幅。

Pedro Passos Coelho, the prime minister, is one of the eurozone’s few cheerleaders for austerity. So the court ruling is a blow. He must find additional savings of about €1.3bn, equivalent to 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product, to match the savings rejected by the judges. That could be tough given that he appears to have exhausted the scope for tax rises. The eurozone could help by easing the bailout’s terms, which have already been extended a bit. In the end, though, the court ruling will be a test of how serious Portugal really is about structural reform, especially of its bloated and unaffordable public sector.

葡萄牙总理佩德罗•帕索斯•科埃略(Pedro Passos Coelho)是欧元区为数不多的支持紧缩的人士之一。因此，该国宪法法院的这一裁决对他是一种打击。他必须另外寻找约13亿欧元资金，相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的0.8%，以弥补法官们所否决的减支措施。鉴于他似乎耗尽了增税空间，这一任务可能变得颇为艰巨。欧元区可能会通过放宽纾困条款来提供帮助，而这些条款已然放松了一些。然而，最终，这项法院裁决将测试葡萄牙对于结构性改革的态度实际上有多么认真，特别是对该国膨胀且负担过重的公共部门的改革。

Portugal wasted its first decade in the eurozone. Even Italy was more dynamic. There is a danger that this pattern will be repeated unless the country starts to live within its means. Ideally in real time.

葡萄牙浪费了其在欧元区的前10年。甚至连意大利也比它有活力。除非葡萄牙开始量入为出，否则这种模式可能会重演。最好马上开始。